It would probably be a competitive game but I don't think many if any would pick ohio to win. They certainly would be underdogs. Toledo is a better team than Ohio and they lost to Illinois just as a comparison. Miami Ohio is better than Ohio and they got beat badly to a ok Miami team. The jump to power 5 is bigger than it used to be with the portal/nil
Obviously the Iowa State opponents you're switching for are tougher but what's difference of doing reverse? Who's a tougher out Penn state or Cincinnati? Iowa state had a tougher schedule I think everyone on both sides acknowledge that. I think Iowa State fans talking themselves into identical records if the teams flipped schedules is where the disagreement is.
ISU was favored at Ohio. And Kansas rolled up Illinois who just needed to play basic defense to beat Iowa.
I've stated it before: I'm not saying ISU has a 10-2 record or Iowa ends up with a 7-5 record. But there's at least 4 teams on Iowa's schedule that ISU has a better chance of beating than who they played.
Replacing Cinci with Penn State doesn't make sense since ISU already had two legit Top 15 teams (OU and TX).