I'm going to ride the fence here - I think top half may be asking a lot. I do think the expectation should be in the tourney. I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen.
Pluses: Respect to Brase and Beverly, they battled this year, but they played 387 minutes in Big 12 play this year. That will be reduced to zero next year and will be picked up by Talley, Jacobsen, and a healthy again Young next year. That right there is a massive improvement especially defensively. Long and Lewis will improve and IMO I expect THT to take their minutes which will be an improvement. Lard and Wigginton should be able to hit the ground running.
Minuses: There are some legit concerns about coaching (performance after the half, slow starts with a very difficult schedule to start the year next year) and there will be some tough teams still in the league next year. Who do we pass? It's not a given.