Hard to know whether they over-achieved, but I agree we should factor in possibly less buy-in and effort, as well as not winning as many close games when guessing most plausible outcomes for next year.I don’t think you can assume equal buy-in and effort, there are just too many factors. Last year’s team was also 7-2 (including post-season) in games decided by 5 or fewer points, which is probably not sustainable. They over-achieved mightily, I enjoyed every second of it, and they should be celebrated for it, but it’s probably fair to temper expectations for year two, as well.
I tend to be optimistic TJ and Co will get the effort and buy-in- they recruit it better than the previous staff- and they built a base in defense, so the impact on that is less readily measurable in recruiting. They can only do so much to overcome talent though, and with NIL, the improvements to roster talent got harder.