2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Hello there.

I know this thread is normally one started in the fall a few weeks before the basketball season begins, but with so much about the roster already changing and changes coming through portal season, I thought I would start it now and lean on the Bart Torvik ("BT") preseason projections @JStanz51 featured here.

The "vanilla" BT projections right now have Iowa State as the #54 team in the country next year --

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I think you all would notice that roster is incomplete and thus incorrect -- Robert Jones is confirmed to be returning for his fifth season, I think CW's article about Tre King makes it clear he is going to be back for another season, and while we have not heard any official word, I think the rumor is Hason Ward will return.

So adding those three back gives you --

1680019633270.png

Iowa State is now projected as the #30 team in the country. The updated offensive efficiency would be tied for #59 in the country (with the College of Charleston) and the defense would be #14 in the country (slightly behind San Diego State and ahead of Arkansas). Last year was #30 overall, #122 offense, and #7 defense.

As I have mentioned before, the BT model for offense depends on the offensive rating of the players on the roster while the defense is projected as a "steady state" year-to-year. So the model thinks adding Omaha, Milan, and Williams will improve the offense while the defense is more about team culture and coaching.

Here are the teams around #30 in the country from this season. Iowa State being #30 again is a funny coincidence. All of them made the tournament save mid-major North Texas in the NIT --

1680019887005.png

I will update this periodically if and when there is further action in the transfer portal. The team clearly needs more backcourt depth. That being said, assuming TJ and Kyle Green can coach the same fire on defense into them, the roster next year as it is right now already has the potential to be very competitive.

Much is going to depend on Omaha and Milan being "hits" pretty quickly and Williams returning to form after the injury. Lipsey is going to need to be a dude with that many minutes and that usage, too.

306,000 alumni could turn the tide

We have 306,000 alumni. If only half care about sports and those people gave $5 a week to We Will, that would be $40 million per year.
There is your gauntlet. If you can’t do $5 a week, try $2.50 a week. If you can do more, do it.
I personally live out of state so I’ve committed to a sum I think would be equal to what I’d spend going to FB and BB games for tickets, gas, food, drink. For those in a similar situation, you might consider giving more.

False Advertising on NFL Trading Cards?

I went with my kids to Wal Mart for them to buy some Pokemon cards and saw these boxes of Panini Select Draft Picks '22 sitting there with Matt Corral on the cover.

So I purchased a few boxes hoping to get a Breece Hall or Brock Purdy, but when I opened the cards, about 2/3 of them were not in fact 2022 draft picks. I got Bo Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, etc. I don't mind a few former picks, but it shouldn't be over half of the cards.

Is that common? To me, it seems like false advertising or misleading at best.

It wouldn't be so painful if they weren't so expensive (~$1/card).

Possible Rule Changes

I'm unfamiliar with the rule change process. Anyone know when this happens? I'd love to see something different done with how the match stops immediately on a challenge. We had several guys get bad calls because of a brick that I believe was intentionally thrown to stop the match and limit points.

Any other rule changes you'd like to see?

NIL in Women’s Basketball

Lots of chat about NIL and what women are pulling down now. Here’s a good article that provides background and numbers. It’s all about star power both on the court and via social media.

What’s happening with Women's Basketball Nationally?

This is a good article that focuses on some things that impact us right here at home. Enjoy.

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

UConn's dynasty is officially dead. That's good news for women's college basketball.

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John Wick 4

Who saw it? What did you think? Hide your spoilers.

I'm no movie critic, but I thought it was great. I didn't get into John Wick until the late 2010s, around the time of the third movie, and I've loved them ever since. They're just great movies for turning off your brain and having a good time watching Keanu wreck people.

This was a long movie but didn't feel like it. And the action scenes in Paris were great.

What an amazing coincidence that Lance Reddick's character dies in this movie, and then he died in real life right before it premiers. Speaking of deaths, zero chance John Wick actually died in this movie, right?

Way too early starting lineup talk for the 23-24 season

Impatiently waiting to see what happens in the portal, and already excited and wanting to talk about next year. My prediction today for starting lineup by Big 12 play is:
PG - Lipsey
SG - Transfer
SF - Momcilovic
PF - Biliew
C - King

Backup PG - Williams
Backup SG - Watson/Hamilton
Backup SF - Watson
Backup PF - Ward/Fish
Backup C - Jones/Ward

Momcilovic is too skilled offensively to not start, but he probably wont at the beginning of the year.

King at ony 6'7 playing the 5 could be interesting, but he's a junkyard dog and very capable.

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