Williams & Blum Pod: Cyclones surge into bye week

Enjoy.

2023 Big 12 Championship Game Chances

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again. My original plan (after seeing ISU's non-conference) was to skip it this year, since I needed to make some revisions to get it to handle the bigger Big 12 (as well as some revisions to handle changes with my data source). But seeing as the Cyclones are alone in second place right now, I figured I'd attempt to get it back up for the current season. Right now I have a couple small cheats -- mostly dealing with two-way ties when the teams haven't played each other -- but otherwise it should be accurate. I'll try to resolve those problems in the next couple weeks.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oklahoma: 90.5% (73.6% 1st, 17.0% 2nd)
Texas: 50.1% (13.6% 1st, 36.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 24.0% (5.2% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 15.2% (2.3% 1st, 12.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 9.5% (3.0% 1st, 6.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.2% (1.5% 1st, 4.7% 2nd)
TCU: 2.1% (0.5% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.5% (0.1% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
BYU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Cincinnati, UCF: nope

(Usually here I have the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening, but that seems to be broken -- let me see if I can fix.)

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
4-8: 1.7%
5-7: 12.1%
6-6: 31.3%
7-5: 35.8%
8-4: 16.5%
9-3: 2.7%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-6: 0.0%
7-5: 7.7%
8-4: 59.9%
9-3: 99.7%

*** 2023-2024 College Football Survivor Week 8 ***

Tiebreaker points return this year. A reminder regarding tiebreaker points: If your team wins and covers you gain an extra bonus point. If you take a undefeated team who is the underdog you gain the point for them covering plus another bonus point. As the season goes on the number of teams undefeated being a underdog greatly diminish so take advantage while you can.


I will be using ESPN's Lines. Line will be the line at kickoff for tiebreaker points




Rules/How to Play if you are new:

You can only pick teams that are undefeated (they will be bolded).

  1. Pick a team you think will win that weeks game. Pick only 1 team per week.
  2. Don't pm me the pick, post on here your pick.
  3. You can only pick that team ONCE the entire time you are in the game.
  4. The goal is to advance and be the last person standing.
  5. Only games that have a FBS school facing another FBS school are eligible to be picked.
  6. You have up until the start time of the game you picked to switch.
  7. If your team loses, you are out for the competition.
  8. If you skip a week of picks, you are out.
  9. You can switch as many times up until the game you have picked officially starts.
  10. If you have questions, pm me
  11. Post 2 of the thread will have the possible games you can pick.
  12. Post 3 will have each player and their previous week's picks.
  13. You can't join in during the middle of the season.
    Please include prior weeks picks with your pick for the week.

RECRUITING: Jamarion Batemon says Iowa State's No. 1 on his list of schools right now

RECRUITING: 2025 Iowa State target @JamarionBatemon caught up with @cfchangs9 after his latest visit to Ames to find out where Iowa State was on his current list.

"Number 1, absolutely," he said.

RIP Suzanne Somers and Piper Laurie


Rising The Program (Part One?)

I’ve been looking at the video of Stevo Klotz’s TD yesterday, and I couldn’t help but think about how much it’s an example of how far the program has come under CMC.

In the meltdown weeks, some genius was whining about “Where are all of those great recruiting classes?” I’m not sure if they were…misinformed…enough to think that a “great” recruiting class for ISU is the same as a great recruiting class for the likes of tOSU or Bama—or if they were just totally blind to the young talent on the field right in front of their noses.

The simple fact is, the talent level on this program is improving. It may be more incremental than most of us would prefer, but it’s there.

And that includes the simple fact that many of our walkons are now better than our scholarship players used to be. Yes, I say that in response to that (ahem) clever person who was complaining about a walkon seeing red when Malik Verdon was out.

Stevo is just one example. I mean, I like and respect the heck out of Sam Seonbuchner. He worked his tail off, and was a key lynchpin in the turnaround of this program.

Not to throw Sam under the bus, but…there’s no way he was athletic enough to make this play. Not to mention that 6’3” 244 doesn’t match up to 6’4” 260.

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And redshirt sophomore DE Trent Jones II and true freshman S Drew Surges are just two more examples.

Pardon me for not detailing the advances among scholarship players here. Maybe a Part 2 coming—that has little to do with “rankings”.

Having been a fan since the days of Donnie Duncan (student), Jim Criner and Jim Walden, I love where this program is at!

Game Thoughts Cincinnati

I thought we could grind out a W, but it was shocking to see a borderline blowout yesterday. The team is playing with more confidence, cohesiveness, and has unlocked a swag that is fun to see. I did not like the crew on FS1 much. Seemed less complimentary to ISU but whatever. Here are my game thoughts in no particular order.

- The road to a bowl: if we win at Baylor in two weeks and can beat BYU there's 6. I think TX and Kansas will be difficult, but Kansas just lost to OSU. KSU is playing a freshman QB who looks very good so that could be tougher than I thought two weeks ago.
- 3-1 in league play. (this is a huge if), but IF we finish 3rd in the Big 12, this is hands down the best season Campbell has had coaching. Losing Hutchinson, Will M to the NFL, then losing 5 starters this is wild what he has done this year. He has maximized the talent on this roster.
- Stevo Klotz can be a major asset to the team moving forward. We all knew he could block, but that TD grab in the endzone was a thing of beauty and he has some hops. Love this guy, he's a better version of Sam Seonbuchner to me.
- Rocco is continuing to play "Purdy like". No I don't think his ceiling is as high as Brock but I think this guy is clearly the future. He is accurate enough, smart with the ball, he can rush it for 5 yards when he needs to. A couple of his throws to Higgins on the sideline showed me too he can rifle a ball in when appropriate.
- I continue to love to see Trent Jones and Ike Ezeguo on the d line. Ezeguo in particular had a great move at the line to get a sack with Jones towards the end of the game, the offensive tackle guarding him lost his jock strap on the move.
- Jordan Langs on special teams: I don't know what we pay him, but he's worth every single dollar. Great hire.
- The OL is starting to play more freely, with more confidence, this is credit to Scheelhaase opening up the offense and not playing like the hawks, the pass game looking better, and I'm sure Clanton is really coaching them up too.
- Ben Brahmer when all is said and done I think can be better than Charlie Kolar at TE, and that's saying something
- Will McLaughlin continues to ball out at LB and think he's our best LB'er, he is strong against the run and pass.

3 up, 3 down. what you got?

3 up
Special teams
. 100% in the kicking game (with one beautiful hold on a high snap). A fake? Is that the first one in CMC's career? Long return on a kickoff. Zero blunders.
No turnovers. Playing clean is critical for this young team. Rocco just taking what the defense gives. Rarely throws into traffic. Laid up a perfect long ball to Higgins. He has overthrown a number of times with receivers open in the past.
Aggressive offense. For the most part the offense stayed aggressive, even up late.

3 down
Wide open recievers.
Cinci had a number of wide open receivers throughout the game. Luckily Jones either overthrew them or never saw them at all. A good QB will make those throws. May have been a different game if he hits a few of those. especially the wide open would be TD early in the game.
3rd down efficiency. Or lack thereof. ISU has not been good in this area all season and continues to be In the lower 3rd of the big 12. 5-15 today. needed to attempt three 4th downs. Luckily they converted all of them. Can't expect to do that week in, week out.
Can't really think of anything else. More or less a dominant win. Both on the field and in the stats. Can't pick apart too much with a 20pt win on the road.

Is sama dinged up?

Fake Field Goal Question

I use to coach hs football for 20 years. We ran a play off of our extra point team where the kicker followed through and missed the ball on purpose. The holder simultaneously threw the ball end over end in the air over the LOS looking like it was a bad kick. My ends would crash down and catch the ball for 2 points…it worked 90% of the time we ran it. I always talked to the officials ahead of time to give them the heads-up. Most crews thanked me and had no problem with it until I ran into a crew that said my holder could not pitch or pass the ball with his knee on the ground. Which makes sense because he is down. No different than taking a knee and passing it. So my question is when we faked the field goal, should that have been called down once we pitched it to our kicker because his knee was down. Just wondering if the rule has changed or even what the ruling is on this play. Thanks!!

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