2023 Big 12 Championship Game Chances

[Dale]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again. My original plan (after seeing ISU's non-conference) was to skip it this year, since I needed to make some revisions to get it to handle the bigger Big 12 (as well as some revisions to handle changes with my data source). But seeing as the Cyclones are alone in second place right now, I figured I'd attempt to get it back up for the current season. Right now I have a couple small cheats -- mostly dealing with two-way ties when the teams haven't played each other -- but otherwise it should be accurate. I'll try to resolve those problems in the next couple weeks.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oklahoma: 90.5% (73.6% 1st, 17.0% 2nd)
Texas: 50.1% (13.6% 1st, 36.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 24.0% (5.2% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 15.2% (2.3% 1st, 12.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 9.5% (3.0% 1st, 6.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.2% (1.5% 1st, 4.7% 2nd)
TCU: 2.1% (0.5% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.5% (0.1% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
BYU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Cincinnati, UCF: nope

(Usually here I have the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening, but that seems to be broken -- let me see if I can fix.)

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
4-8: 1.7%
5-7: 12.1%
6-6: 31.3%
7-5: 35.8%
8-4: 16.5%
9-3: 2.7%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-6: 0.0%
7-5: 7.7%
8-4: 59.9%
9-3: 99.7%

 

[StLouisClone]

It's nice to see another one of these threads. If ISU continues to play well in all 3 phases, it will come down to our last 2 games.

 

[Dale]

Got most common championship games working -- here's all with at least a 1% chance:

Oklahoma/Texas: 44.1%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 20.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 3.9%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.9%
Kansas St./Texas: 1.8%
Oklahoma/TCU: 1.5%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.2%
Texas/West Virginia: 1.2%

 

[aeroclone]

Cyclones first of course, but if we don't make the game I could get on board with UT missing the game and Okie State taking down OU in one final round of Bedlam. Be a great way to send OUT packing.

 

[Cyched]

Interesting to see KU drop below the middle of the pack in the computer

 

[madguy30]

Interesting to see KU drop below the middle of the pack in the computer

I feel like depth is going to start become a factor with them down the stretch.

 

[isufbcurt]

Interesting to see KU drop below the middle of the pack in the computer

Because just like last year they aren't that good, overhyped.

 

[Cyched]

I feel like depth is going to start become a factor with them down the stretch.

November road games could get problematic

 

[qwerty]

Playing with MReds program

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

The only way we make conf championship is if TX loses 2. Their 2nd best chance to lose is TCU the week before ISU. Sure we want TX to lose, but if they do lose to TCU, that will fire them up extra the next week against us. Ah hell with it, TX loses both of those games . . . . .

 

[jctisu]

Playing with MReds program

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

The only way we make conf championship is if TX loses 2. Their 2nd best chance to lose is TCU the week before ISU. Sure we want TX to lose, but if they do lose to TCU, that will fire them up extra the next week against us. Ah hell with it, TX loses both of those games . . . . .

I vote we just win out and make the Big 12 Championship

 

[cowboycurtis]

Got most common championship games working -- here's all with at least a 1% chance:

Oklahoma/Texas: 44.1%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 20.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 3.9%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.9%
Kansas St./Texas: 1.8%
Oklahoma/TCU: 1.5%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.2%
Texas/West Virginia: 1.2%

I like what you’re doing here but shouldn’t Texas have a couple games with higher % chances after OU Texas game. It pretty much says if it’s not OU Texas then they have no chance. I passed statistics at ISU but barely. Thanks.

 

[ghyland7]

I like what you’re doing here but shouldn’t Texas have a couple games with higher % chances after OU Texas game. It pretty much says if it’s not OU Texas then they have no chance. I passed statistics at ISU but barely. Thanks.

I suspect the reason is because Texas has lost the tiebreaker to OU, if they LOSE to ISU (or a few other teams) their likelihood of making the championship drops precipitously. However, they're still the 2nd most likely team to make the game, because OU/TX is nearly 50%.

 

[cowboycurtis]

I suspect the reason is because Texas has lost the tiebreaker to OU, if they LOSE to ISU (or a few other teams) their likelihood of making the championship drops precipitously. However, they're still the 2nd most likely team to make the game, because OU/TX is nearly 50%.

Makes sense. Thanks

 

[NorthCyd]

Hey, y'all. I've done this the past several years, and I'm bringing it back again. My original plan (after seeing ISU's non-conference) was to skip it this year, since I needed to make some revisions to get it to handle the bigger Big 12 (as well as some revisions to handle changes with my data source). But seeing as the Cyclones are alone in second place right now, I figured I'd attempt to get it back up for the current season. Right now I have a couple small cheats -- mostly dealing with two-way ties when the teams haven't played each other -- but otherwise it should be accurate. I'll try to resolve those problems in the next couple weeks.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oklahoma: 90.5% (73.6% 1st, 17.0% 2nd)
Texas: 50.1% (13.6% 1st, 36.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 24.0% (5.2% 1st, 18.8% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 15.2% (2.3% 1st, 12.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 9.5% (3.0% 1st, 6.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 6.2% (1.5% 1st, 4.7% 2nd)
TCU: 2.1% (0.5% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.5% (0.1% 1st, 0.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
BYU: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Houston: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Cincinnati, UCF: nope

(Usually here I have the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening, but that seems to be broken -- let me see if I can fix.)

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
4-8: 1.7%
5-7: 12.1%
6-6: 31.3%
7-5: 35.8%
8-4: 16.5%
9-3: 2.7%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-6: 0.0%
7-5: 7.7%
8-4: 59.9%
9-3: 99.7%

So we have almost a 20% chance of 8 or 9 wins? I really want to believe this, but I am skeptical

 

[qwerty]

So we have almost a 20% chance of 8 or 9 wins? I really want to believe this, but I am skeptical

According to Team Rankings, it is about 9.5%

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Cyclones team page with results, picks, power rankings, odds and stats.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[knowlesjam]

So we have almost a 20% chance of 8 or 9 wins? I really want to believe this, but I am skeptical

While the 20% chance isn't great, it certainly is much more likely than just a couple of weeks ago. Look at the upcoming teams...
- Baylor. Terrible defense with an offense not as good as years past. This is a great set up for us.
- Kansas. Terrific offense with a subpar defense. This will be interesting...does our defense take care of business?
- BYU. Horrific offense with a good defense. This also sets up well for us.
- Texas. A big mountain...how does Texas come into this? Cold weather likely our friend here.
- KSU. Did they find a winner in the new QB? Defense solid. I think we have Howard as the freshman is going to get hurt.

To me the 7-5 is pretty realistic if both the offense and defense continue on the trajectory they are on.

 

[stewart092284]

While the 20% chance isn't great, it certainly is much more likely than just a couple of weeks ago. Look at the upcoming teams...
- Baylor. Terrible defense with an offense not as good as years past. This is a great set up for us.
- Kansas. Terrific offense with a subpar defense. This will be interesting...does our defense take care of business?
- BYU. Horrific offense with a good defense. This also sets up well for us.
- Texas. A big mountain...how does Texas come into this? Cold weather likely our friend here.
- KSU. Did they find a winner in the new QB? Defense solid. I think we have Howard as the freshman is going to get hurt.

To me the 7-5 is pretty realistic if both the offense and defense continue on the trajectory they are on.

Baylor- agree but their starting QB missed most of the season. As he rounds into form, they will look different.
Kansas - see above. Presuming Daniels returns, they are more explosive and complete on offense.
BYU - agree but Provo is a tough place to play
Texas - meh. Presuming they are still in the title race, I don't like the matchup.
Kansas State - we never play well there.


I think 5-7 and 6-6 is most likely simply because A) we're young everywhere almost and B) I'm not sure the football gods are going to smile on us that consistently. Outside of 2020, that might be the first time that's happened in my life time as an Iowa State fan.


Can we get to 8-4? Yes. Beat Baylor, Kansas, BYU and K-State. All are winnable. However, all are loseable.
Realistically Im hoping for 2-2, which puts us at 6-5 and then presuming Texas hasn't quit, thats tough, so 6-6.

That would be massive as it gives the young team very valuable extra practices for development and growth.

BYU and Baylor are massive - if we can manage to go 2-0 there... then 8 wins is extremely likely or much more likely (obvious statement is obvious) but I see them as easier than beating the Kansas schools.


I have mixed feelings on the bye this week. On the one hand, in theory, getting a week to rest, recover and develop is good. On the other hand - do we lose momentum ? IDK

 

[AppleCornCy]

Did you guys hear those odds on the Williams and Blum podcast for non-OUT teams winning the Big 12? A few of them might be worth throwing down a little bit of money on. Seems like there’s value there.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

 

[Malty Flannel]

I still think we likely lose our two remaining home games unfortunately, with good odds to win the away games. If Howard loses his spot to the freshman, I like our chances of beating them. Getting the freshman after there's 3-4 full games of film on him just screams "Heacock Special".