This is where I'm going to disagree with you. Iowa claims they have depth and they may, but I think everyone around here can agree that they will get in their own way. Meaning, Fran is going to play 10-12 guys thinking there's great depth, only to disallow team build/chemistry. You sub like his patterns, this doesn't allow any gelling. Plus, look at their confidence level. I watched some of the Indiana game last night and their offense is very shaky. They look lost. Then Fran will chew his players out, thus further diminishing their confidence. Fran may be a great guy, but I'm not a fan of his coaching style.
I expect a close game tomorrow because it is a rivalry, but by no means are the two teams on the same trajectory right now.