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Should Morris Start Over Thomas?

I definitely agree with the mixing of freshman minutes, especially early in the season. I may have come across as over critical of Thomas in earlier posts, but I feel that it is at least debatable about starting Long over MT.

CFH coached teams always improve by the end of the season, and the supporting cast of our big 4 will hopefully will be that improvement. Can't wait to see if CFH has a few new plays dialed up to get Thomas going. I haven't really seen too many drawn up for MT yet, and haven't noticed any of the out of bounds plays that we have seen in the past to get a good 3 pt look.
 
swarthmoreCY said:
If anything, it is unfavorable to Jake, not Matt. As has been popular here in masking our shooting, Jake's numbers include Big 12 play, whereas Matt's sample is inflated by only including the easiest part of the schedule. Matt's numbers could increase in conference play, but it is unlikely, at least enough to raise his numbers to the first year % of past shooters.
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Long-term statistical analysis has shown that opponent doesn't play much in to a team's 3FG%: the kenpom.com blog. Extending that to a player's FG%, it's more likely luck/sample size/regression to the mean if a player shoots worse from distance in conference play. Even if the entire season was against cupcakes, Naz wasn't going to shoot 50+% all year. From previous threads, I know you have some examples of players shooting worse in conference/against better defenses, but I'm sure I can find counter examples too (because otherwise Pomeroy would have found a significant trend in his data).
 
VeloClone;37801Many have stated said:
Why should it be stated again? Most of the posts on the matter have said starting does not matter, but it is the amount of minutes. Judging from your desire to keep making it about starting, you clearly only read the OP.
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TurbulentEddie said:
Long-term statistical analysis has shown that opponent doesn't play much in to a team's 3FG%: the kenpom.com blog. Extending that to a player's FG%, it's more likely luck/sample size/regression to the mean if a player shoots worse from distance in conference play. Even if the entire season was against cupcakes, Naz wasn't going to shoot 50+% all year. From previous threads, I know you have some examples of players shooting worse in conference/against better defenses, but I'm sure I can find counter examples too (because otherwise Pomeroy would have found a significant trend in his data).
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Yes, if you take players shooting like Long started, the regression to the mean is likely. You could think this is a local max, but that is unlikely the case with Thomas, although Matt has been regressing. Quite a few limitations in that analysis btw. In reality, order matters too. The better you shoot, future iterations will not consist of as easy of shots. Players more often shoot worse in conference play is also not exactly saying they shoot worse against stronger competition. Do you not think most players shoot better when open and with time than a hand in their face and rushed?
 
It was obvious against BSU that the coaches are telling MT to pull the trigger. He took at least one shot he had been passing up and didn't hesitate on the one he hit. He looks like a freshman that knows he isn't the #1 option. He needs a little bounce in his step because you can see the offensive skills are there.

No more one-dribble pullups is all I ask. Let it fly.
 
Naz should be starting over Thomas. Maybe Thomas will do better off the bench. Thomas' ability to create his own shot is worrisome. All he does is hover over the 3 point line waiting for the ball. Naz can drive and he can also create his own shot.
 
Cyclonesince78 said:
Naz should be starting over Thomas. Maybe Thomas will do better off the bench. Thomas' ability to create his own shot is worrisome. All he does is hover over the 3 point line waiting for the ball. Naz can drive and he can also create his own shot.
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Without looking, I'd be willing to bet Thomas has shot more non-three point shots than Naz this season.
 
For what it's worth I have supported Thomas to start on record if you look at my posts up until today.

Go ahead with your smart alec response 22...I'm waiting.
 
ISUFan22 said:
No more logic. Must has undefeated team whipping boy.
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In fairness, it's clear that Naz is better right now than MT. Maybe Fred wants to keep Naz and MM as a spark off the bench and that's fine. I happen to think MT is going to be very good for us, but who's to say he wouldn't be more comfortable off the bench?

Either way, I'm not complaining. Naz has his issues as well, but I do think he's the guy I'd want in the game at crunch time rather than MT.
 
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