Seemingly never ending Iowa MBB thread (still going.....)

[tm3308]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Iowa didn't play Wichita State on the road and they were without Van Vleet

Away from home. Pretty sure nobody's gonna actually misunderstand the point. But by all means, belabor the semantics and ignore the point that every time ISU has played a top 25 team on the road, they've lost. Losing those games by close scores doesn't get you extra credit. You did a pretty good job of hammering that lesson home a couple years ago.

 

[cloneteach]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

And since the point was that ISU can't/hasn't beat good teams away from home, it's worth noting that Iowa's three best road wins came against #4, #15 and #16 (average of 11.67). Meanwhile, ISU's best three road wins came against #35, #39 and #54 (average of 42.67).

ISU's overall road wins look better on the average because their best wins so far are nothing special and they haven't had to play a team like Rutgers that brings the average way down.

You are correct. They haven't HAD to play a team like Rutgers on the road.

 

[CyJack13]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Away from home. Pretty sure nobody's gonna actually misunderstand the point. But by all means, belabor the semantics and ignore the point that every time ISU has played a top 25 team on the road, they've lost. Losing those games by close scores doesn't get you extra credit. You did a pretty good job of hammering that lesson home a couple years ago.

Big difference between neutral site wins and road wins. Just look at the RPI, neutral site wins count as 1.0 wins, true road wins count for 1.4.

 

[cloneteach]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

And since the point was that ISU can't/hasn't beat good teams away from home, it's worth noting that Iowa's three best road wins came against #4, #15 and #16 (average of 11.67). Meanwhile, ISU's best three road wins came against #35, #39 and #54 (average of 42.67).

ISU's overall road wins look better on the average because their best wins so far are nothing special and they haven't had to play a team like Rutgers that brings the average way down.

This is why I included the median. It would be a better measure of central tendency in this case.

 

[CyTwins]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Away from home. Pretty sure nobody's gonna actually misunderstand the point. But by all means, belabor the semantics and ignore the point that every time ISU has played a top 25 team on the road, they've lost. Losing those games by close scores doesn't get you extra credit. You did a pretty good job of hammering that lesson home a couple years ago.

Yes, ISU has lost to the #3, #10, #15 and #24 team on the road. Iowa has beat two ranked teams on the road, one is Purdue who's guard play is awful and the other was Michigan State who also lost to Nebraska at home

 

[tm3308]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Yes, ISU has lost to the #3, #10, #15 and #24 team on the road. Iowa has beat two ranked teams on the road, one is Purdue who's guard play is awful and the other was Michigan State who also lost to Nebraska at home

Yet the metrics you tout still love both of them. Go figure.

 

[tm3308]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

This is why I included the median. It would be a better measure of central tendency in this case.

The bottom line is that Iowa has more impressive wins than ISU does. ISU has beaten more middlings than Iowa has, and fewer dogs. But Iowa has easily better wins at the top, which was the point of the discussion. ISU can't/hasn't gotten over the hump against ranked teams away from home, while Iowa has multiple times.

 

[CyTwins]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Yet the metrics you tout still love both of them. Go figure.

You think Purdue is good? Their best win is Florida and they got blown out by a horrible Illinois team. The Michigan State win is much more impressive but even you have to admit that was tainted by how they were playing at the time

 

[cloneteach]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

The bottom line is that Iowa has more impressive wins than ISU does. ISU has beaten more middlings than Iowa has, and fewer dogs. But Iowa has easily better wins at the top, which was the point of the discussion. ISU can't/hasn't gotten over the hump against ranked teams away from home, while Iowa has multiple times.

[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 922"]
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[TD]Tue, Dec 22[/TD]
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• @
• 
• #22 Cincinnati

[/TD]
[TD]

• W
• 81-79

[/TD]
[TD]10-1 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[tm3308]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

You think Purdue is good? Their best win is Florida and they got blown out by a horrible Illinois team. The Michigan State win is much more impressive but even you have to admit that was tainted by how they were playing at the time

Do I think Purdue passes the eye test as a really good team? No. But now you're moving the goalposts. And besides, it's not like anyone's passing the eye test this year. There are about 8 or so teams that you could put at #1, and it's not because there are just a ton of elite teams this year. The same is pretty true for the rest of the field, as well.

As for MSU, yes, Iowa caught them at a good time. But that's still a talented team and Iowa's defense absolutely had a lot to do with how poor MSU looked against Iowa. Bryn Forbes is averaging 17ppg in conference play (excluding his two games against Iowa). He scored 5 points total in two games against Iowa, in large part because Clemmons completely eliminated him from the offense. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country; it shouldn't be a big surprise that even good teams don't look good offensively against them.

 

[tm3308]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 922"]
[TR="class: oddrow team-41-2132"]
[TD]Tue, Dec 22[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]

• @
• 
• #22 Cincinnati

[/TD]
[TD]

• W
• 81-79

[/TD]
[TD]10-1 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You mean the Cincy team that's rated 35 in KenPom and 63 in RPI?

 

[Gunnerclone]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

You know we've got an overrated/breezing a bad conference/schedule hok team when tm3308 is getting worked up.

 

[CyFan61]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

tm is trolling harder than I've seen before.

 

[CyTwins]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Do I think Purdue passes the eye test as a really good team? No. But now you're moving the goalposts. And besides, it's not like anyone's passing the eye test this year. There are about 8 or so teams that you could put at #1, and it's not because there are just a ton of elite teams this year. The same is pretty true for the rest of the field, as well.

As for MSU, yes, Iowa caught them at a good time. But that's still a talented team and Iowa's defense absolutely had a lot to do with how poor MSU looked against Iowa. Bryn Forbes is averaging 17ppg in conference play (excluding his two games against Iowa). He scored 5 points total in two games against Iowa, in large part because Clemmons completely eliminated him from the offense. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country; it shouldn't be a big surprise that even good teams don't look good offensively against them.

Who was the Nebraska player that eliminated him from the game when the 163rd ranked Cornhuskers won in East Lansing and Forbes had 3 points?

 

[cloneteach]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

You mean the Cincy team that's rated 35 in KenPom and 63 in RPI?

You said ranked right?

 

[WastedTalent]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Losing those games by close scores doesn't get you extra credit. You did a pretty good job of hammering that lesson home a couple years ago.

I don't get this part. With all those losses, that team finished 11-7 in the conference, tied for third, three games out of first, and was still a 3 seed.

 

[CyFan61]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

The bottom line is that Iowa has more impressive wins than ISU does.

Simply not true. Talk home/away all you want.

RPI Top 10 wins:
Iowa State 3
Iowa 0 (best is #17)

Iowa has the equivalent of beating a 5 seed and a 6 seed on the road... Iowa State has wins over a 1 seed and two 2 seeds.


Once you get past that the wins are pretty much equal. The differences are the losses for ISU which explains Iowa above ISU. If ISU had beaten Baylor and West Virginia at home (or even one of those two + UNI) I am confident Iowa State would be above Iowa based on the strength of their resume, i.e. wins, i.e. ISU has better wins.

 

[NorthCyd]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Simply not true. Talk home/away all you want.

RPI Top 10 wins:
Iowa State 3
Iowa 0 (best is #17)

Iowa has the equivalent of beating a 5 seed and a 6 seed on the road... Iowa State has wins over a 1 seed and two 2 seeds.


Once you get past that the wins are pretty much equal. The differences are the losses for ISU which explains Iowa above ISU. If ISU had beaten Baylor and West Virginia at home (or even one of those two + UNI) I am confident Iowa State would be above Iowa based on the strength of their resume, i.e. wins, i.e. ISU has better wins.

Yeah, but everyone knows ISU home wins don't count. When ISU wins at home its basically like cheating.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

Simply not true. Talk home/away all you want.

RPI Top 10 wins:
Iowa State 3
Iowa 0 (best is #17)

Iowa has the equivalent of beating a 5 seed and a 6 seed on the road... Iowa State has wins over a 1 seed and two 2 seeds.


Once you get past that the wins are pretty much equal. The differences are the losses for ISU which explains Iowa above ISU. If ISU had beaten Baylor and West Virginia at home (or even one of those two + UNI) I am confident Iowa State would be above Iowa based on the strength of their resume, i.e. wins, i.e. ISU has better wins.

Agree with this for the most part. When Iowa beat MSU, Sparty was Top 10 in RPI. They slid to mid-20s with losses to Nebraska and Wisconsin, and are now back at 16. If they beat Purdue tonight in WL, good chance Sparty is back in Top 10.

RPI also really likes road wins, so winning @MSU and @Purdue are big. And even wins over so-so road teams (like Illinois and Marquette) helps Iowa. Picking nits, but Lundardi has MSU as a 3 seed and Purdue as a 5 seed this week. I wouldn't be shocked to see Sparty on the 2 line before it's all over, but that's projecting, not the now.

 

[Gitwitit]

Re: Iowa MBB now a projected #1 seed

So the fact that MSU lost to Nebby at home, which has to be one of their worst losses in a decade at home, right after losing to Iowa means nothing. Clearly they were playing their best basketball at the time. Lolololol! Iowa has one solid road win, and other wise beaten up on a bunch of crappy teams and one good team that was at the bottom when they faced them. Congrats.

I'll give Iowa this, they have been very good at trouncing lesser competition. It will be interesting to see how they hold up in tight games against good teams. That probably won't happen until the Big 10 tournament

This would be true if that wasn't MSU's 3rd straight loss to Nebraska. They lost at home last year and then went to the final four. Nebraska has go their number lately but it hasn't stopped MSU from being one of the best teams in the country. Lololol.