Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[hawkfan]

They are taking the PAC premiere teams to the B1G and putting ISU a newly incorporated PAC called the “Big West” as a football only conference. That’s it.

But like with everyone, they’re focusing too much on what conferences potentially want, and not what their media partners would want. I’m fully of the opinion that these scenarios are mutually exclusive…one hand shakes the other, and it is pointless to discuss these “way-out-there” fanboy conferences without considering the money.

What the media partners want is more certainty in their inventory and to avoid the PAC12's time zone problem while still owning their valuable content.

One of the biggest problems w/ buying the PAC12 rights is you get 12 time zone problems with it. If you take their 4-6 best properties and blend it with properties in better time zones, it makes that content much more valuable.

On the B10 side, it expands the B10 recruiting footprint into demographically favorable states, which has been a goal for years. The B1G needs a foothold in one of California, Texas, or Florida. The latter two seem highly unlikely at this point, the former now seems well within reach.

 

[CydeOut]

Yep. I bet the Big 12 cannot wait to get into new contract talks without Texas and Oklahoma on their side.

You didn't read the original post...

 

[NodawayRiverClone]

Why would teams brought into the BIG get a full payout share right away? Nebraska took 7 years to get there. From Daily Nebraskan, May 2017:

"When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, it received $14 million. From there, it increased to $15.4 million in the second year, then $16.9 million, $18.7 million and $22 million last year, according to the Omaha World-Herald.


Finally, Nebraska will see the full benefits of leaving the Big 12 Conference, but those initial payouts were still an improvement over the Big 12’s $9 million in 2010."

Big 12 teams have already indicated they will take $33-34 million and any team to the BIG would probably get less.

 

[cycloneworld]

It's way bigger than just this. You get a higher percentage of big games, yes. But if you cut out half or 1/3 of current P5, you lose a ton of fans that watch those games. I watch UT, OU games because of the conference ties. I watch SEC, BIG games when ISU is good because there are rankings, bowl, etc. implications. If ISU isn't even in the same division essentially, I have zero interest. And I think most people won't pick a new horse in the blue blood league, they'll just watch the NFL.

Everybody should keep in mind, trends for CFB aren't good. Attendance prior to COVID was down. ISU was one of the few that saw increases. Last year despite people being stuck in the house a lot, ratings were down 30% year over year. That is an incredible ratings tank. If a network sitcom had that kind of drop year over year it would get cancelled.

The networks and conferences better be careful. The idea you can throw any kind of CFB product out there is false. Not to mention, if the new CFB is concentrated enough to a few teams, that's not much inventory. All it would take is for the NFL to decide earlier in the season they will put a couple games per week on Saturdays and it would destroy college ratings. They better stay well differentiated from the NFL, and they better maintain broad interest, or they will fail.

Yep, spot on. These people are making decisions based on dollars but are ignoring everything that got them there (rivalries, moving away from parity, costs, etc, etc).

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

ACC is off the table for the B10 - GOR through 2035. Saying "regardless of GORs" is the same thing as saying "I know this can't happen, but...".

P12 is hurting for money, has multiple blue bloods available, and the schools all fit the B10 mold. It's the only hand the B10 can play here.

True for the Big 10, but wouldn't it better for the Pac 12 to just add the left over schools from the Big 12 and get to a 16 team league? Add ISU, TT, KSU and OSU, and form an east/west division along with Colorado, Utah and the 2 Arizona schools.

I really think its a pipe dream by the Big 10 to think that four schools from West Coast are going to join a league 2 or 3 timezones away, but then I never thought UT would follow aTm into the SEC either.

 

[CascadeClone]

ACC is off the table for the B10 - GOR through 2035. Saying "regardless of GORs" is the same thing as saying "I know this can't happen, but...".

P12 is hurting for money, has multiple blue bloods available, and the schools all fit the B10 mold. It's the only hand the B10 can play here.

To me the question is how bold do they want to be?

Do you just poach USC and Oregon and 16 teams is the answer?
Do you grab 4 good teams to make the geography slightly less bad?
Or do you go for the H-bomb? Partner/merge the two conferences. Find 6 more teams and make it a 32 team gig. And maybe whisper to the ACC about coming on board too in a couple years - let's be the college football that cares about academics.

If it was me - the first two don't lock up your big dogs enough and feel like "keeping up with the Joneses". The last one is leapfrog move that's hard for the SEC/ESPN to match. Basically take everything else off the board, and 2/3rds of the country. And mostly, it's good academic schools - not all are AAU, but vast majority are.

 

[drmwevr08]

There's too much left to be decided but this could backfire as some have said. What makes sense in this snapshot of time may not make sense once the fallout leaves schools and fans behind. Making 100 teams plus of CFB into a 40 team big time NFL college hybrid would bring fewer eyes and money I think eventually. I feel like this how I feel about analytics in baseball. You take a snapshot of what should make you win, but when you apply it the game is less watchable. So, at some point you may win a WS, but your attendance dropped in half because nobody likes to see it. You focused on one metric today and forgot where that puts you in 5 years.

 

[hawkfan]

True for the Big 10, but wouldn't it better for the Pac 12 to just add the left over schools from the Big 12 and get to a 16 team league? Add ISU, TT, KSU and OSU, and form an east/west division along with Colorado, Utah and the 2 Arizona schools.

I really think its a pipe dream by the Big 10 to think that four schools from West Coast are going to join a league 2 or 3 timezones away, but then I never thought UT would follow aTm into the SEC either.

No, because the PAC12 is already underpaid on a per team basis - adding the 8 least valuable properties of the B12 to the P12 ends up losing money for all their existing membership.

Per the Dennis Dodd's report, he indicated that the B12 less Texas/OU could be valued as little as $9M per school. Let's be generous and assume double that at $18M per school - the PAC currently gets paid 33M per school:

 

[cycloneworld]

Remember when streaming services were going to take over the sports rights world? Lol. Instead we have ESPN and Fox (mostly ESPN) pulling all of these strings. Sucks.

 

[Gonzo]

What the media partners want is more certainty in their inventory and to avoid the PAC12's time zone problem while still owning their valuable content.

One of the biggest problems w/ buying the PAC12 rights is you get 12 time zone problems with it. If you take their 4-6 best properties and blend it with properties in better time zones, it makes that content much more valuable.

On the B10 side, it expands the B10 recruiting footprint into demographically favorable states, which has been a goal for years. The B1G needs a foothold in one of California, Texas, or Florida. The latter two seem highly unlikely at this point, the former now seems well within reach.

And the PAC's GOR is up after '23-'24.

 

[DeereClone]

Remember when streaming services were going to take over the sports rights world? Lol. Instead we have ESPN and Fox (mostly ESPN) pulling all of these strings. Sucks.

Streaming was never the answer. No one would pick to watch football on a stream vs on ABC.

 

[Cyclonepride]

ACC is off the table for the B10 - GOR through 2035. Saying "regardless of GORs" is the same thing as saying "I know this can't happen, but...".

P12 is hurting for money, has multiple blue bloods available, and the schools all fit the B10 mold. It's the only hand the B10 can play here.

Except for the fact that they're all a thousand miles away

 

[Gonzo]

Streaming was never the answer. No one would pick to watch football on a stream vs on ABC.

I'd bet it gets there eventually. Not much difference between punching in 805 on a cable remote and punching in BTN and getting the same live event. If and when the conferences believe there's more $$$ in creating their own streaming service and bypassing ESPN/FOX altogether it'll happen. Big question is how long that'll be.

 

[BryceC]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

10% Big
25% Pac12
65% retooled Big 12

Just my opinion of course.

 

[BryceC]

I've noticed you guys are thought clones...but it's a good thing because you make tend to make good points.

Yeah sometimes. I don't think we are particularly aligned here. And he's better at communicating than I am, I'm jelly.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Well that sounds pretty awful.

That's because it is awful, they start the podcast talking about how OU and UT approached the Big 10 first, and was told by the league that they would take UT but not OU because they are not an AAU school. The ACC schools they would like are locked into the media rights until 2035 so they are looking to move to the West.
Not sure why they are choosing to go from 14 to 20, the only thing I can figure out is by doing so, they then can take most of the AAU schools from the Pac 12, if they only take 2, its much harder to get them to break away from the conference.

I see no one going to 20 teams until the GOR rights are about finished in the ACC, then it may happen 10 to 15 years from now, but not now.

 

[CydeOut]

- Let OU/Tex walk
- Propose what we offered OU/TEX (1.5 shares immediately), highlight easier path to playoff to (looking for 2 or 4):

• USC
• Oregon
• ND
• A&M
• Any other worthy college of your choice

- Fight legal battle to say GOR has been changed with TEX/OU leaving and look to renegotiate TV rights with new teams.

Some school(s) may appreciate what OU/TEX didn't.

 

[Cardinal and Gold]

An interesting wrench in all of this for the SEC and people worried about "footprint" for conferences would be when streaming services progress to ala carte pricing for tv or at least mini-packaging of channels. It will truly be about who you could get as subscribers. Alienating 85% of college football may not be the smartest decision. People are less willing to be forced into paying for things they do not want/use than ever before.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Streaming was never the answer. No one would pick to watch football on a stream vs on ABC.

You do realize ESPN and FOX got into the streaming game, right?

 

[JusHappy2BeHere]

10% Big
25% Pac12
65% retooled Big 12

Just my opinion of course.

the left out 8 plus who? AZ and ASU maybe? Without Texas, maybe CO wants to come back, especially if they aren't part of the B1G/12PACK merger?

I'd call all of those longshots, which leaves, who? Memphis, Cinncy, UH.... I wonder if their payday would be better in that kind of B12 or staying where they are in the AAC?