Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[Urbandale2013]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

60% Big 10
35% PAC 12
5% some Frankenstein league of leftovers.

 

[HFCS]

Good points all around here. Kudos. I honestly really look forward to your thoughts and insights and you're my favorite poster on the board.

I've noticed you guys are thought clones...but it's a good thing because you make tend to make good points.

 

[cyclonehomer]

As an ISU fan, would you really want this? Every few years the big swinging d*cks in the conference decide to club you over the head again and take even more?

I know that I have absolutely 0 desire to just be in the same situation again in 3 years.

 

[Gonzo]

How about all of the above? You have to remember that the death of BOTH the PAC12 & the B12 would create a massive revenue vacuum for sports rights. A ton of money would then be available for the B1G's rights. CBS currently has no premiere rights to CFB after losing the SEC's Tier 1 deal to ESPN.

If CFB morphs into a true AFC/NFC mini-NFL style league, the B1G has to respond to this move by the SEC or tOSU/UM probably eventually leave and join the SEC super league. If the membership of the B1G want to become the Ivy League 2.0 eventually, that's fine. Doing nothing at this juncture is exactly where that leads.

The SEC will eventually kill the ACC to continue growing its membership IMO, that will include UNC/UVA/FSU/Clemson IMO. If I were the B1G commissioner, my first step would be to grab:

USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington

Secure those four first, then go to Notre Dame and make the following pitch: the SEC is likely to demo the ACC at some point and that they better either join the B1G/PAC now or plan to join and compete in the SEC later as the only Yankee school in that conference. Let us know if you think that you're a better fit in a conference that brands itself as being truly national - from the Atlantic to the Pacific (the new B20), or if you fit better with a bunch of schools from just the south? If the latter, good luck to you, and the B1G's only play is to add two more from the PAC12.

If ND gets on board, you have one spot left - I think you go to Texas and ask them if they've made their mind up for sure or not. They likely have, but I think you need to at least offer them spot #20. If they say no, then you ask the 19 members who they want as #20, probably from the P12.

If everyone wants to eventually submit to the SEC, then doing nothing eventually ends up there. The B1G is the only conference that's positioned to create something that could compete with it, even without UT at #20, that's a conference that will compete for playoff spots year in and year out.

If the B1G executes the above plan, it creates a pretty competitive landing spot for ISU with the remnants of the P12 & B12 teaming up together in a 4th super conference. The B1G adding ISU or Kansas at this point is the same as telling tOSU to go to the SEC, it needs to make a huge counter punch to the SEC grabbing UT/OU.

If conference murder is on the table regardless of GORs, my preference would be adding:

ND
Clemson
UNC
UVA

The PAC option wouldn't be horrible but I'd rather expand in contiguous states along the mid-Atlantic. That'd also leave the possibility for some kind of PAC/remaining Big 12 merger out west.

 

[HFCS]

60% Big 10
35% PAC 12
5% some Frankenstein league of leftovers.

My guess:
50% Frankenstein league of ACC/Big12/top tier AAC
30% Big Ten (could be a 2 team expansion or part of a mega expansion)
20% Pac 12 (Pac 12 is only if we're part of a massive expansion where it becomes 16 or more teams)

 

[hawkfan]

ACC is off the table for the B10 - GOR through 2035. Saying "regardless of GORs" is the same thing as saying "I know this can't happen, but...".

P12 is hurting for money, has multiple blue bloods available, and the schools all fit the B10 mold. It's the only hand the B10 can play here.

 

[Cloneon]

Additionally, this may immediately allow for the Big 12 to renegotiate a TV rights contract as there is a change in schools, which means they would be in the advantageous spot of being the first conference to the table to strike up an agreement with the new, big-time streaming players to the rights game.

That game should've most likely been started anyway. If it wasn't, very bad management planning.

 

[CascadeClone]

So I was trying to gauge UT/OU share of value of the TV contract and found this article from March 2020. Has some TV numbers to give an idea of viewer interest aka advertising value. Might not be completely the same after 2020, but I thought it would at least ROM the number.

Big12 ratings 2019

The viewer numbers basically say that games with either UT or OU are about 4x more valuable that everyone else. That's a rough number. It MIGHT be a little lower than that, because to some extent they get better tv spots and that helps some. But let's just say 4x.

But if it is 4x, then take into account the # of games inventory. Doing the math a couple different ways, UT/OU are worth about 55-70% of the TV contract. So what would a Big12 Light look like? If ISU is currently getting $35M, figure it will be more like $11-15M. That is MUCH worse than I anticipated and is nearly down in G5 territory. That's the kind of drop that would impact facilities and financial planning already in work.

I think there would be some upward potential in these numbers too. Some factors that might make it higher:

• If ESPN owns a super league and others need content for prime spots
• Streamers come in to increase demand for content
• Games just become a bit more valuable because of better tv spot times
• Generally all content value is increasing

So maybe it could be $20M instead? Maybe. Bottom line: we really need to get into the B1G or Pac12. Otherwise looking at <$20M in tv money and true relegation to the minor leagues. Guess I just proved the sky is blue, but the numbers are sobering.

 

[Rods79]

Any chance we can get a quick synopsis of anything ISU related in there?

They are taking the PAC premiere teams to the B1G and putting ISU a newly incorporated PAC called the “Big West” as a football only conference. That’s it.

But like with everyone, they’re focusing too much on what conferences potentially want, and not what their media partners would want. I’m fully of the opinion that these scenarios are mutually exclusive…one hand shakes the other, and it is pointless to discuss these “way-out-there” fanboy conferences without considering the money.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Any chance we can get a quick synopsis of anything ISU related in there?

They have the BIg 10 taking 6 teams from the Pac 12, going to 20, they have the ACC taking WV and 3 other teams from the AAC, OSU, KU and TCU to the SEC and the rest of us all get merged into the left over conference, with Stanford now an independent.
So basically everyone going to 20 teams or close too it, and ISU out in the weeds, dying on the vine.

 

[CydeOut]

As an ISU fan, would you really want this? Every few years the big swinging d*cks in the conference decide to club you over the head again and take even more?

Depends on the other options at play (I'm not optimistic of a BIG or Pac-12 invitation)...under similar circumstances, we are in the best run of football we have ever had. As Jaime Pollard said, without OU and TEX in the room, we are the Mountain West. We are not in this position without catering to OU and TEX since the last realignment. We are perpetually going to be in the conversation of being cut from the top-tier of college athletics, I would rather find a way to stay there than be relegated to the AAC or Mountain West.

 

[JusHappy2BeHere]

I think you to the B1G is a no brainer.

I don't see any good outcomes for my school. We should fit with the Pac 12, Competitive in almost everything.... 3 NY6 Bowls, 2 B12 championships and a close title game loss in the last 8 years, MBB and WBB National Championships, Good Baseball which P12 likes. Ranked higher by USN&WR than every non-California member except UW. Allegedly on track to be R1/T1 by 2024....

but alas, Stanford will never allow it.

We are going to end up in an improved but still minor league AAC.

 

[Triggermv]

They have the BIg 10 taking 6 teams from the Pac 12, going to 20, they have the ACC taking WV and 3 other teams from the AAC, OSU, KU and TCU to the SEC and the rest of us all get merged into the left over conference, with Stanford now an independent.
So basically everyone going to 20 teams or close too it, and ISU out in the weeds, dying on the vine.

Yikes. I'll pass on listening. Thanks for the synopsis.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

FYI IF the current 8 want to stay as the Big 12 and looking to add. (And don’t have a B1G or PAC 12 spot)

**** Cincinatti.

 

[Gonzo]

ACC is off the table for the B10 - GOR through 2035. Saying "regardless of GORs" is the same thing as saying "I know this can't happen, but...".

P12 is hurting for money, has multiple blue bloods available, and the schools all fit the B10 mold. It's the only hand the B10 can play here.

killjoy

 

[BCClone]

That’s below AAC money. Why would we drop under them?

 

[Legend12]

Additionally, this may immediately allow for the Big 12 to renegotiate a TV rights contract as there is a change in schools, which means they would be in the advantageous spot of being the first conference to the table to strike up an agreement with the new, big-time streaming players to the rights game.

Yep. I bet the Big 12 cannot wait to get into new contract talks without Texas and Oklahoma on their side.

 

[madguy30]

They have the BIg 10 taking 6 teams from the Pac 12, going to 20, they have the ACC taking WV and 3 other teams from the AAC, OSU, KU and TCU to the SEC and the rest of us all get merged into the left over conference, with Stanford now an independent.
So basically everyone going to 20 teams or close too it, and ISU out in the weeds, dying on the vine.

Well that sounds pretty awful.

 

[CydeOut]

That game should've most likely been started anyway. If it wasn't, very bad management planning.

They agreed to GOR until 2024 or 2025, they can't renegotiate unless there is a change to the conference.

 

[KidSilverhair]

While this may not be a popular perspective, ANY league needs a lower performing half to entice CFP invitation. "Parity" more often than not hurts a conference's position on the grand platform.

This is the obvious thing that it appears the blue bloods just conveniently forget. “We want to play elite competition“ and “the rest of our conference isn’t pulling their weight, we need more attractive matchups” sounds great in theory … but if your schedule is now Oklahoma/Alabama/LSU/Georgia/Florida/Auburn, it gets exponentially harder to win the number of games you’re used to.

For every SEC game Bama or Georgia wins, somebody’s gotta lose, and chances are a lot of those losses will go to Texas. An entire conference can’t go 10-2 or 9-3, you know …