Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC

[AuH2O]

This is where I think the blue bloods are wrong. They need teams to play. Because if they only play other blue bloods, you’ll have a lot of blue bloods going 6-6, 7-5 and even the top teams are going to lose games. And that happening over and over will lead to devaluing their blue blood brand.

Go look at the top teams and their schedules. They basically have to win 2-3 games per year against top competition. Do they really want to do that 12 times per year?

It's way bigger than just this. You get a higher percentage of big games, yes. But if you cut out half or 1/3 of current P5, you lose a ton of fans that watch those games. I watch UT, OU games because of the conference ties. I watch SEC, BIG games when ISU is good because there are rankings, bowl, etc. implications. If ISU isn't even in the same division essentially, I have zero interest. And I think most people won't pick a new horse in the blue blood league, they'll just watch the NFL.

Everybody should keep in mind, trends for CFB aren't good. Attendance prior to COVID was down. ISU was one of the few that saw increases. Last year despite people being stuck in the house a lot, ratings were down 30% year over year. That is an incredible ratings tank. If a network sitcom had that kind of drop year over year it would get cancelled.

The networks and conferences better be careful. The idea you can throw any kind of CFB product out there is false. Not to mention, if the new CFB is concentrated enough to a few teams, that's not much inventory. All it would take is for the NFL to decide earlier in the season they will put a couple games per week on Saturdays and it would destroy college ratings. They better stay well differentiated from the NFL, and they better maintain broad interest, or they will fail.

 

[BryceC]

Nobody the Big10 can add outside of poaching Clemson and ND or Oregon and USC are going to add per team revenue. So the question is not who will add per team revenue, because the answer is probably nobody they can add without busting the massive GoR in the ACC.

So the question is Does Fox implore the Big 10 to expand for inventory? If yes, then Big needs to try to project who will return the best of those they can pick up. That can be a combination of projecting who is most valuable in future media contracts, and who is willing to accept terms more favorable to the rest of the members to join.

Lastly, Big 10 could take KU and ISU for a few years where they give up major dollars to the other members, with the idea that the following contract could be uneven distribution. There's nothing requiring the Big 10 to continue into eternity with even distribution. In fact, I would almost guarantee it's inevitable that if OSU and Michigan stay in something like the Big 10 that uneven distribution starts happening.

Good points all around here. Kudos. I honestly really look forward to your thoughts and insights and you're my favorite poster on the board.

 

[Primetime26]

Wouldn't they still have the inventory? That's the thing - it's not like they won't be able to bid on any league ISU ends up in, and probably at a steep discount to whatever they would pay the Big 10 to expand.

We will be in the Big 10 or the Pac 12 if Fox wants us to. If not, we won't.

That's what I think too. They will wait to devalue any team that they may want to add. And that is, only if they cant land a big fish out of the PAC12

 

[Lexclone]

The ACC owns the media rights for ND, Clemson, UNC, FSU, et al, through the year 2036. So yes, any of those programs can leave the ACC whenever they want for the SEC or B1G before 2036, but neither of those conferences would get media revenue from those teams' games for 15 years, it would go to the ACC. If OU and UT bolt before 2025, some reports have said they'd owe the Big 12 $70-$80 million each as a buyout. And that's with only 3 years left in the Big 12's GOR. Imagine what it would cost for a GOR buyout with 10-15 years left in the deal.

I get that deals can be struck and renegotiated, but that would get incredibly complicated and I just don't think the ACC is so willingly going to fall on the sword just to make ESPN/FOX and the SEC/B1G happy.

Stop making sense. This is a freak-out thread. Get with the program.

 

[CycloneErik]

Ken and Trent are idiots.

Who are Ken and Trent? (Real question)

Why are Ken and Trent? (Probably an important question)

 

[G-Rock]

with the value estimates, people keep using current B12 payouts. Those were negotiated 10 or so years ago. It’s possible that the B12 leftovers could pull close to that in a new deal which would be about half of the projections of the new SEC and big 10. While leaving us behind, it’s not a killer.

This is my last preference, but just pointing out that it may not be the disaster some think.

From Dennis Dodd

Those words hit like a sledgehammer today. As the SEC shocked the world by preparing to assume the 'Horns and Sooners, the Big 12 lost 50% to 75% of its value, several industry sources tell CBS Sports. Their TV contracts with ESPN and Fox contain language that allows the Big 12 networks to reduce payouts if there is a loss of membership.

"When you're losing two of the most visible programs, the network has the right to come and say, 'We're going to reduce the rights by X.'" one longtime, high-profile administrator said.

That means the Big 12 deal could drop from $37 million in annual revenue to as low as $9 million per school. Considering there aren't two schools available that come close to replacing the value of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is in troubled waters to say the least

$9M is death.

 

[BCClone]

Wouldn't they still have the inventory? That's the thing - it's not like they won't be able to bid on any league ISU ends up in, and probably at a steep discount to whatever they would pay the Big 10 to expand.

We will be in the Big 10 or the Pac 12 if Fox wants us to. If not, we won't.

Many times it is matchups more than anything. A Kstate/ISU game has more appeal than an UCF/ISU game since the regional perspective kicks in.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Who are Ken and Trent? (Real question)

Why are Ken and Trent? (Probably an important question)

KXNO's late morning team. Ken Miller used to be on Marty & Miller on KXNO. Why might because Marty is in jail now

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The American makes $7M per school. If we are at like $12M then maybe we can add two of them and stay right around there. But that’s not gonna compete with the mid-30s of the Pac or ACC, let alone the double that of the SEC or the B1G.

 

[JusHappy2BeHere]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

 

[Cloneon]

And the other point they will say is, we will have more inventory, instead of Illinois versus Maryland, we will give you ISU versus Wisconsin. More than just staring at one team. Other things like possible more/better bowl games. Get Alamo’s payout versus the pinstripe.

This can not be discounted. As I posted earlier, the league requires just 'left' of parity; meaning one team should carry a greater win percentage, but not so much as to be an afterthought. In the end the conference still has elite teams debated into the CFP, while at the same time garnering greater media attention throughout the season.

 

[Cyclonepride]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

55% Big Ten
35% PAC12
10% other

 

[madguy30]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

I'm about 10-15% right now just because that seems too easy and for ISU, it's never easy. This isn't based on anything other than gut feel.

 

[Gonzo]

How long until ESPN and FOX are no longer relevant in any of this? That day can't be far off with everything and its cousin creating its own streaming service.

 

[CydeOut]

Without Tex and OU, the remaining 8 are not valuable. What saved us last time is giving Tex and OU unequal, better shares to keep us afloat. For some reason, this is not a good situation for Tex and OU, but could it be for 2 or 4 other big name schools?

Can the remaining 8 come to an agreement that equal parts of the money pie is not what is necessary, they just need to find 2 (or maybe even 4) high value schools that will appreciate what Texas and OU didn't (comparable money to what the Big 10 and SEC are sharing due to a larger slice of the pie, a more powerful voice in conference affairs, and an easier path to the college football playoff).

Everything is an option right now, but fighting to keep a Big 12 shouldn't be overlooked; why not consider offering the deal you would give to Tex and OU (1.5 shares, premier game time slots, anything necessary) to some of the other big names and see what happens? Just because Tex and OU didn't appreciate what they had, doesn't mean somebody else wouldn't.

ND may see the need of a permanent conference and that deal may seem like a comfy landing spot for them. USC could jump at an opportunity to leave the shaky ground of the PAC-12 and into the catbird seat of the Big 12 (if Big 12 implodes later, who cares, they'll survive regardless). Would A&M avoid TEX and come back if we gave them a sweetheart deal? Would Arkansas say uncle with OU and TEX now coming into their side of the conference and look for a better competitive option? Would LSU see value in becoming Alabama of the Big 12? Oregon? UCLA? Fill in the blank with a worthy school, but the Big 12 can come close on the money side for most schools but maybe not all the way, but they can definitely offer something that everyone loves that they may not be getting in conferences with Ohio St, Alabama, Clemson...power and a clearer road to the playoff/title.

 

[Gunnerclone]

How confident do you guys feel that you end up in the B1G?

Confident? 0% lol

 

[HFCS]

WHY? ND has the best of both worlds they are making a ton of money with their NBC deal, and get to set their own schedule and have parked their other sports into the ACC.
The only way ND moves to a conference is there is a 30 or 40 team super conference formed, otherwise they will stay where they are and see what happens down the road.

I guess I'm seeing the Big Ten and SEC being that level.

The Pac is an afterthought. The ACC is 2 poachings away from identical situation as the Big 12.

So the new league is going to be SEC and Big Ten plus a deal for Notre Dame? Why wouldn't they tell ND to go screw themselves?

 

[hawkfan]

Nobody the Big10 can add outside of poaching Clemson and ND or Oregon and USC are going to add per team revenue. So the question is not who will add per team revenue, because the answer is probably nobody they can add without busting the massive GoR in the ACC.

So the question is Does Fox implore the Big 10 to expand for inventory? If yes, then Big needs to try to project who will return the best of those they can pick up. That can be a combination of projecting who is most valuable in future media contracts, and who is willing to accept terms more favorable to the rest of the members to join.

Lastly, Big 10 could take KU and ISU for a few years where they give up major dollars to the other members, with the idea that the following contract could be uneven distribution. There's nothing requiring the Big 10 to continue into eternity with even distribution. In fact, I would almost guarantee it's inevitable that if OSU and Michigan stay in something like the Big 10 that uneven distribution starts happening.

How about all of the above? You have to remember that the death of BOTH the PAC12 & the B12 would create a massive revenue vacuum for sports rights. A ton of money would then be available for the B1G's rights. CBS currently has no premiere rights to CFB after losing the SEC's Tier 1 deal to ESPN.

If CFB morphs into a true AFC/NFC mini-NFL style league, the B1G has to respond to this move by the SEC or tOSU/UM probably eventually leave and join the SEC super league. If the membership of the B1G want to become the Ivy League 2.0 eventually, that's fine. Doing nothing at this juncture is exactly where that leads.

The SEC will eventually kill the ACC to continue growing its membership IMO, that will include UNC/UVA/FSU/Clemson IMO. If I were the B1G commissioner, my first step would be to grab:

USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington

Secure those four first, then go to Notre Dame and make the following pitch: the SEC is likely to demo the ACC at some point and that they better either join the B1G/PAC now or plan to join and compete in the SEC later as the only Yankee school in that conference. Let us know if you think that you're a better fit in a conference that brands itself as being truly national - from the Atlantic to the Pacific (the new B20), or if you fit better with a bunch of schools from just the south? If the latter, good luck to you, and the B1G's only play is to add two more from the PAC12.

If ND gets on board, you have one spot left - I think you go to Texas and ask them if they've made their mind up for sure or not. They likely have, but I think you need to at least offer them spot #20. If they say no, then you ask the 19 members who they want as #20, probably from the P12.

If everyone wants to eventually submit to the SEC, then doing nothing eventually ends up there. The B1G is the only conference that's positioned to create something that could compete with it, even without UT at #20, that's a conference that will compete for playoff spots year in and year out.

If the B1G executes the above plan, it creates a pretty competitive landing spot for ISU with the remnants of the P12 & B12 teaming up together in a 4th super conference. The B1G adding ISU or Kansas at this point is the same as telling tOSU to go to the SEC, it needs to make a huge counter punch to the SEC grabbing UT/OU.

 

[CydeOut]

Without Tex and OU, the remaining 8 are not valuable. What saved us last time is giving Tex and OU unequal, better shares to keep us afloat. For some reason, this is not a good situation for Tex and OU, but could it be for 2 or 4 other big name schools?

Can the remaining 8 come to an agreement that equal parts of the money pie is not what is necessary, they just need to find 2 (or maybe even 4) high value schools that will appreciate what Texas and OU didn't (comparable money to what the Big 10 and SEC are sharing due to a larger slice of the pie, a more powerful voice in conference affairs, and an easier path to the college football playoff).

Everything is an option right now, but fighting to keep a Big 12 shouldn't be overlooked, but why not consider offering the deal you would give to Tex and OU (1.5 shares, premier game time slots, anything necessary) to some of the other big names and see what happens? Just because Tex and OU didn't appreciate what they had, doesn't mean somebody else wouldn't.

ND may see the need of a permanent conference and that deal may seem like a comfy landing spot for them. USC could jump at an opportunity to leave the shaky ground of the PAC-12 and into the catbird seat of the Big 12 (if Big 12 implodes later, who cares, they'll survive regardless). Would A&M avoid TEX and come back if we gave them a sweetheart deal? Would Arkansas say uncle with OU and TEX now coming into their side of the conference and look for a better competitive option? Would LSU see value in becoming Alabama of the Big 12? Oregon? UCLA? Fill in the blank with a worthy school, but the Big 12 can come close on the money side for most schools but maybe not all the way, but they can definitely offer something that everyone loves that they may not be getting in conferences with Ohio St, Alabama, Clemson...power and a clearer road to the playoff/title.

Additionally, this may immediately allow for the Big 12 to renegotiate a TV rights contract as there is a change in schools, which means they would be in the advantageous spot of being the first conference to the table to strike up an agreement with the new, big-time streaming players to the rights game.

 

[Gonzo]

Without Tex and OU, the remaining 8 are not valuable. What saved us last time is giving Tex and OU unequal, better shares to keep us afloat. For some reason, this is not a good situation for Tex and OU, but could it be for 2 or 4 other big name schools?

Can the remaining 8 come to an agreement that equal parts of the money pie is not what is necessary, they just need to find 2 (or maybe even 4) high value schools that will appreciate what Texas and OU didn't (comparable money to what the Big 10 and SEC are sharing due to a larger slice of the pie, a more powerful voice in conference affairs, and an easier path to the college football playoff).

Everything is an option right now, but fighting to keep a Big 12 shouldn't be overlooked, but why not consider offering the deal you would give to Tex and OU (1.5 shares, premier game time slots, anything necessary) to some of the other big names and see what happens? Just because Tex and OU didn't appreciate what they had, doesn't mean somebody else wouldn't.

ND may see the need of a permanent conference and that deal may seem like a comfy landing spot for them. USC could jump at an opportunity to leave the shaky ground of the PAC-12 and into the catbird seat of the Big 12 (if Big 12 implodes later, who cares, they'll survive regardless). Would A&M avoid TEX and come back if we gave them a sweetheart deal? Would Arkansas say uncle with OU and TEX now coming into their side of the conference and look for a better competitive option? Would LSU see value in becoming Alabama of the Big 12? Oregon? UCLA? Fill in the blank with a worthy school, but the Big 12 can come close on the money side for most schools but maybe not all the way, but they can definitely offer something that everyone loves that they may not be getting in conferences with Ohio St, Alabama, Clemson...power and a clearer road to the playoff/title.

As an ISU fan, would you really want this? Every few years the big swinging d*cks in the conference decide to club you over the head again and take even more?