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Oklahoma Predictions/Analysis

It's probably the ideal start to the Big 12 conference season, as it's probably the hardest game we'll have, and most will be expecting an OU win.

From what I've seen from OU, they are capable of huge runs and huge droughts (and they're remarkably consistent about mixing in some of each every game), so we'll have to keep calm and just continue to do our thing through the closing bell. I could see us being up 20 or down 20 at some point, but think the final margin will be within 5 either way.

Edit- I'd also add that I'd like to see our 3 attempts to less than 20. OU plays fairly aggressive defense, and a simple pass or two will leave them open and exposed inside. Just need to keep pounding the rock inside and pass out for the occasional in-rhythm three.
 
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Cydkar said:
Their players post on the forums?
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Lol exactly...I don't like the vibe I'm getting for this game seems like we're sleepwalking already with only one thread on the game so far. When will we learn we need to start more game threads RIGHT AWAY if we want to win?
 
My concerns.......3 point defense and three point offense. Right now it appears to me that we have too little of both. Hoping for the best, but right now I expect a 10-15 point loss.
 
This years OU team reminds me a lot of the Cyclones team 2 years ago. They are very perimeter orientated with only one player that plays the post, Spangler (even he is stepping out of the paint and playing on the perimeter a lot). They aren't very deep there either Lattin has some talent but young and disappears for long stretches. Losing Taylor for last years team should open the post for McKay, Niang, Burton, and Nader.

Depending a lot on the jump shot they can look like the best team in the country for stretches and go into long slumps giving up large runs. Hield has improved his consistency from last year limiting their slumps so far. As been mentioned they haven't played the best competition with only one top RPI 50 win, so there issues may have be masked by completion. They need Buddy to be on to win, if he has an off night they are vulnerable (I think they get a TCU or TT type loss blemish on their record during the season due to this).

Hield will score, but the key for ISU's defense is to limit the impact of Cousins and Spangler and the other players. ISU's main advantage is in/attacking the paint and rebounding. McKay controlling the rim is important he is due for a big game and the matchup is right.

Hard to predict a win in Norman but, I do think ISU matches up well with OU, as shown by winning 2 out of 3 last year against the same roster (minus T.Taylor). I expect this game to be high scoring with runs back and forth by both teams with the game decide on who finishes the last 3 minutes making shots. I feel fairly confident that ISU will raise up to the occasion and has a good opportunity to pull the upset.
 
WastedTalent said:
-They have depth. Hield, Spangler, Cousins, and Woodard play 27+ Their 5th will be around 20, and they will bring 4 or 5 off the bench.
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I don't agree with this part. The minutes for their big 4 are low because they blew almost everyone out, but They don't really play their bench any more than we do. They have 3 guys that play around 10 minutes each off the bench, none of them average 5 ppg. Walker is the guard off the bench, Buford the wing and Manyang the post. Lattin is basically a bench player that starts.

I think, as usual, being aggressive offensively and getting into the paint is a huge key to the game. If you can get Spangler or Lattin into foul trouble, then they have to put in Manyang to guard McKay and that's a huge mismatch in terms of speed and quickness.

Both teams are very good at not fouling, but that will always be the key.

I think ISU has a real shot, due to the layoff for OU, the Big Monday #1 vs #2 game looming, and due to the familiarity between these two teams. Attack the paint, run them off the 3-pt line, don't foul and keep OU off the offensive glass. I'm not predicting a win, but I think it will be a dog fight and I like our chances in those games.
 
Cyclad said:
My concerns.......3 point defense and three point offense. Right now it appears to me that we have too little of both. Hoping for the best, but right now I expect a 10-15 point loss.
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I know Nader buried a huge one at Cincy, but man, I'd like to see him at 3 attempts per game max as he's shooting 28% now. Just enough to keep the defense honest so that he can draw them up and drive around them. Monte has struggled but he's still at 30%. Matt, Georges and (small sample size) Burton are our only real threats from range (statistically to this point) at 41%, 43% and 67%.
 
I've watched really struggle at times blowing big leads against teams like Hawaii, Creighton, and Harvard. I think ISU pulls it out in a close one! 83-79.

Besides if OU wins the football game today will Sooner fans even know there is a basketball game Saturday?
 
Cyclonepride said:
I know Nader buried a huge one at Cincy, but man, I'd like to see him at 3 attempts per game max as he's shooting 28% now. Just enough to keep the defense honest so that he can draw them up and drive around them. Monte has struggled but he's still at 30%. Matt, Georges and (small sample size) Burton are our only real threats from range (statistically to this point) at 41%, 43% and 67%.
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Burton was 4-10 in 2 years at Marq. He's 4-6 in 3 games at ISU. and goodness did both of the 3s he took last night look good, he certainly doesn't lack confidence in his shot.
 
Size for size we match up well with them. I agree with the other person who said their stats are a little skewed by their easy non-con. Sure the Villanova win was better than anything ISU has done, but Villanova was absolutely awful in that game (which was played in Hawaii). Hield is an unbelievable player so far this, and Im not sure who guards him (Thomas?). Inside I think we have a huge advantage with Lattin on McKay, so if the 3 is not falling I hope we move the game inside fast. I could see ISU getting out to a double digit lead in the first 5 minutes of the second half, but since we only have 6 players right now who can play effectively, I think OU will do most of their damage late. I cant predict ISU to win, but see a 79-77 type game.
 
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Also, there is a hell of a lot of pressure on OU to win this game with a trip to KU on Monday. Starting out conference play 0-2 when you're the #3 team in the nation would not be good. On the flip side, I dont think their is an ounce of pressure on ISU in this game.
 
wow, I think this is a terrible match up for us. OU knows us well and wants revenge, and our 3pt D is terrible!

monte guards woodward, and thomas/nader on heild/cousins?!?!? I think OU will be salivating against those two.

the only way we win is if we're hot from three and OU misses a few.

just not a good match up for us at all this year.
 
CYdways432 said:
Besides if OU wins the football game today will Sooner fans even know there is a basketball game Saturday?
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I did see that the game is sold out. However, I'm sure many of those seats in the lower bowl are held by boosters who may or may not make it back for the game. Either way, I'm sure there will be a good crowd.
 
Let's put it this way; I can only think of one, maybe two times in my 40-year span as a Clone fan where we won a road conference game against a Top 3 ranked team.

It rarely happens and I would be surprised it happens Saturday.
 
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