Oklahoma Predictions/Analysis

Only way we win is if Naz pulls a Willis Reed and burns his redshirt. We have a 1-player bench right now. I don't expect full court pressure, highly contested rebounds, 50/50 wins, or tight perimeter defense out of these guys if they aren't given time to rest. Last night, I saw McKay standing flat footed under the rim while CS shot a layup, rebounded, and shot another layup - all within 1 foot of our best interior defender. McKay never moved a muscle.
 
Let's put it this way; I can only think of one, maybe two times in my 40-year span as a Clone fan where we won a road conference game against a Top 3 ranked team.

It rarely happens and I would be surprised it happens Saturday.

How many times has the opportunity happened outside of Lawrence?

By my count, this is the 10th Top 3 road conference game we have played in 40 years. We have only won one of them (2005). 8 of them have been in Lawrence, the other 2 (including Saturday) in Norman. So its safe to say the opportunity rarely presents itself, especially outside of Lawrence.
 
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wow, I think this is a terrible match up for us. OU knows us well and wants revenge, and our 3pt D is terrible!

monte guards woodward, and thomas/nader on heild/cousins?!?!? I think OU will be salivating against those two.

the only way we win is if we're hot from three and OU misses a few.

just not a good match up for us at all this year.

Sword cuts both ways... ISU has a size and post up advantage with Nader, Niang, McKay, and Burton. Just as bad of mismatch for them and if the team is aggressive foul trouble could come into play for the Sooners.
I don't expect a win but I think some of these posts are way to pessimistic about ISU's chances.
 
Conference season *******. Child's play is over with, it's time for big boy basketball.

Things I like going into Saturday's game:


-Opening conference play on the road vs a top 2 team should give Iowa St a nothing to lose approach.

-Oklahoma hasn't played since their game in Hawaii on Christmas.

-OU travels to Lawrence for a potential epic Big Monday matchup just a day after we play them. Ever since Iowa upset MSU, you know they're thinking about that 1 vs 2 matchup. And actually OU will probably be #1 in the coaches, and KU #1 in the AP, so could be #1 vs #1

-Their team isn't that much different than last season, just a year older. Lost Thomas.

-They have been averaging 12.5 turnovers/game.

Things that scare me:

-Buddy Hield. He is averaging 25 per.

-Oklahoma has dominated opponents, including Villanova.

-They're shooting 46% from 3 as a team. Hield at 53% Woodard at 52% Spangler at 48% Cousins at 46%

-They have depth. Hield, Spangler, Cousins, and Woodard play 27+ Their 5th will be around 20, and they will bring 4 or 5 off the bench.

-Buddy FREAKING Hield

Here's a couple of OU boards to keep an eye on:
http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36723
http://www.landthieves.com/board/forumdisplay.php?10-Basketball

Let's hear your predictions and analysis.


Oklahoma is a better team, especially at home. OU - 87 ISU - 79
 
I remember the last game we played at OU. We tried to run and shoot with them and they just did it better and wore us out, big time. Afraid the same is going to happen, with our even shorter bench. OU by 13. Btw, am I the only one that wishes we would post up Nader more? I think that guy can score, get fouled (he makes free throws) or hit tough fade away shots, too. A lot of defenders aren't bigger than him at the wing position. Obviously I'm glad he made the Cincy '3' to win the game, but he's also 2 for 11 his last two games.
 
wow, I think this is a terrible match up for us. OU knows us well and wants revenge, and our 3pt D is terrible!

monte guards woodward, and thomas/nader on heild/cousins?!?!? I think OU will be salivating against those two.

the only way we win is if we're hot from three and OU misses a few.

just not a good match up for us at all this year.

I think Matt is our best perimeter defender right now. Hield will get his either way, but I feel like Matt can limit him to an extent.
 
I doubt we blow them out if we go 14 of 22. Have you looked at our own 3pt defense lately? Thanks captain ********.

If we go 14 of 22 from 3, I guarantee a double digit win.

Also, regarding opponents 3FG%, 7 of the 12 games our opponents have shot <34% from 3 (including 4 of the last 7). The other 5 they have shot 39% or better. There are no games of "average" 3 point shooting by our opponents (between 34 and 39%). So it doesn't really have to do with skill, effort, or "lately". My guess is that it has to do a lot with defensive game planning, and a couple teams (UNI and Coppin St) staying hot the whole game.
 
I remember the last game we played at OU. We tried to run and shoot with them and they just did it better and wore us out, big time. Afraid the same is going to happen, with our even shorter bench. OU by 13. Btw, am I the only one that wishes we would post up Nader more? I think that guy can score, get fouled (he makes free throws) or hit tough fade away shots, too. A lot of defenders aren't bigger than him at the wing position. Obviously I'm glad he made the Cincy '3' to win the game, but he's also 2 for 11 his last two games.

I'd like to see that too. He's almost always against a smaller man (and if not, take that big outside and drive around him).
 
I think Matt is our best perimeter defender right now. Hield will get his either way, but I feel like Matt can limit him to an extent.

I think it's really important to run Hield and Cousins off the 3-pt line. Make them drive into McKay. If Spangler and Lattin get some easy buckets out of it, so be it. Keeping Hield and Cousins from getting comfortable outside is more important.
 
I think OU will want some revenge for their two losses to ISU last year........especially considering one was a collapse by them, and the other was a missed bunny.

ISU does not defend the 3 well at all, and OU is one of the best shooting 3 point teams. Also, I just don't think ISU has played all that well yet so far this year. Cincy was a good win..but not a great one.

OU by 15-20. Best hope for ISU, imho is that OU will be looking ahead to Monday night.

I hope I am wrong, and ISU can pull it out. That would mean a lot towards where this year is potentially headed.
 
I think it's really important to run Hield and Cousins off the 3-pt line. Make them drive into McKay. If Spangler and Lattin get some easy buckets out of it, so be it. Keeping Hield and Cousins from getting comfortable outside is more important.

This. If Spangler is their leading scorer that is good news.

I think they have as much problem matching up with us. They do not have the inside presence to deal with Niang, McKay, Burton and Nader.

I would say OU by 6 with Burton being the wildcard. If what he has show so far is real and he can bring it on the road....
 
It's probably the ideal start to the Big 12 conference season, as it's probably the hardest game we'll have, and most will be expecting an OU win.

From what I've seen from OU, they are capable of huge runs and huge droughts (and they're remarkably consistent about mixing in some of each every game), so we'll have to keep calm and just continue to do our thing through the closing bell. I could see us being up 20 or down 20 at some point, but think the final margin will be within 5 either way.

Edit- I'd also add that I'd like to see our 3 attempts to less than 20. OU plays fairly aggressive defense, and a simple pass or two will leave them open and exposed inside. Just need to keep pounding the rock inside and pass out for the occasional in-rhythm three.

This matches my thoughts. Our best offense is going inside. It's a different strategy than we're accustomed to, but we need to be selective on our 3-pointers (looking at you Nader). We need to be patient, pound it into Niang and McKay and let Burton and Nader get to the hole. We can get a lot of easy buckets as OU is similar to us in that they can fall asleep for long spurts.
 
My main question is, will the doom and gloom/predicting a thrashing people be the exact same group as those melting down after a loss here? I think it will.

This. I can't understand how one could predict a double digit loss, then freak out afterwards, saying Iowa St was completely overmatched and doesn't deserve to be in the same echelon as Oklahoma, but yet there will be some.
 
We can beat anyone if we bring our A game. Probably the toughest or second toughest game of the year @ OU. Win, and we're in the driver's seat in the big 12.
 
The funny thing is if UNI doesn't hit 60% from 3 this is probably a top 3 matchup with pundits picking both sides. As it is we're viewed as some sort of significant underdog (which I have no problem with when it's @OU) and I like that for our chances.

The players on our team have experience beating the players on Oklahoma's team. They haven't done it at OU but they know they can do it on a neutral court which has to help with OU just recently getting all this hype, which I think they have earned.
 
The funny thing is if UNI doesn't hit high volume 60% from 3 this is probably a top 3 matchup with pundits picking both sides. As it is we're viewed as some sort of significant underdog (which I have no problem with when it's @OU) and I like that for our chances.

The players on our team have experience beating the players on Oklahoma's team. They haven't done it at OU but they know they can do it on a neutral court which has to help with OU just recently getting all this hype, which I think they have earned.
 
If we go 14 of 22 from 3, I guarantee a double digit win.

Also, regarding opponents 3FG%, 7 of the 12 games our opponents have shot <34% from 3 (including 4 of the last 7). The other 5 they have shot 39% or better. There are no games of "average" 3 point shooting by our opponents (between 34 and 39%). So it doesn't really have to do with skill, effort, or "lately". My guess is that it has to do a lot with defensive game planning, and a couple teams (UNI and Coppin St) staying hot the whole game.

Double digit win against #2 team in the country on their home floor? That's pretty bold given our defense.
 

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