***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

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Makes sense. The basketball only schools only put up with the football schools because many were regional basketball matchups and football brought more money. Football won't be bringing the money anymore and will just be adding a ton of extra travel for these non-football schools to add to their budgets.

Those 7 schools would be a good starter point to pick off a few teams from one of the lesser conferences.
 
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So sounds like FSU is using big 12 as a fall back to get a better deal.

At this point it looks like Miami and Clemson have no other options (Unless they are hoping for ACC survival). B1G and SEC don't want them. Why not make a push for them now. They would actually fit the big 12's model of needing marquee football matchups for TV (rather than population bases to support a network).

It would be more of a move to ensure our survival anyway. Then we can sit at 12, and let the other pieces unfold, or make last pitches for ND or FSU.
 
Big Ten Expansion Motivated By Fear Of Losing Penn State - BC Interruption


But wouldn't you know that part of the reason the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers was because they feared losing its easternmost member to an unspecified "league somewhere on the East Coast?" According to Wisconsin A.D. Barry Alvarez, anyway:

"Jim felt that someday, if we didn't have anyone else in that corridor, someday it wouldn't make sense maybe for Penn State to be in our league," Alvarez told the board, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "That they would go into a league somewhere on the East Coast. By doing that, it keeps us in the Northeast corridor."
Turns out the cat was already out of the bag. Delany seemingly backed up Alvarez's comments a month ago when asked about the prospect of losing teams to other conferences.
"But I do think that you need to build, and this build really solidifies the expansion we've done in the past. We've done one in the East, we've done one in the West [Nebraska in 2010]. I would say the driving force is demographics, but when you look at it, you can't help but think this is good for Penn State as well."

So when/who solidifies Nebby to the west?
 
Regarding #1, any additional realignment will likely be driven by Notre Dame. The only way ESPN will increase its payout to the ACC is if ND engages fully with ESPN and becomes a full member. It's possible that ESPN increases the ACC payout without ND just to keep the ACC as-is but I doubt that happens.

Regarding #2, probably the only way that the B12 can justify expansion to 16 is with both FSU and ND. Any other combination of 6 schools likely will not generate enough value to existing B12 members. I do agree that scheduling with 14 is a pain in the rear but a potential combination of FSU, Clemson, VPI, NCST, Miami and Wake/Pitt probably is not going to generate an additional $180M of value per year for the networks and B12 unless Fox really wants to crack the SE market for CFB and pay through the nose to do so.

According to recent reports, ESPN is paying or will pay around $18/yr for all 3 tiers and the new Orange Bowl payout to ACC schools. ESPN and Fox will pay approx $30M/yr to B12 schools for T1, T2 and the Sugar Bowl payout. ESPN wants to keep the ACC together with or without ND so if the B12 expands, Fox will be footing the vast majority or all of the TV network bill for B12 expansion.

What I don't get, is how the Big 12 + 4 or 6 football minded ACC schools, can be significantly different than the SEC that is valued slightly higher per team than the Big 12.

How is Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas, WV worth less money than the SEC markets plus one or two more mid population states? Especially considering the football product is superior to top money earner Big 10. It would be SEC 2.0 in terms of markets and football.

There's no way FSU and one other football leaning school does not help the Big 12 in this changing landscape. I pray that the "only Notre Dame" mindset is only prevalent on message boards and not with the Big 12 brass.
 
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So sounds like FSU is using big 12 as a fall back to get a better deal.

At this point it looks like Miami and Clemson have no other options (Unless they are hoping for ACC survival). B1G and SEC don't want them. Why not make a push for them now. They would actually fit the big 12's model of needing marquee football matchups for TV (rather than population bases to support a network).

It would be more of a move to ensure our survival anyway. Then we can sit at 12, and let the other pieces unfold, or make last pitches for ND or FSU.

Not to mention that lack of marquee football games is FSU's #1 gripe outside of their lower payout than SEC competitors. Take away Miami and Clemson (or even Pitt) and there's an even higher ration of games agains basketball schools.
 
TheDudeofWV's post yesterday (FSU and Big Ten in talks) tells me that realignment is cooling down for the time being and the ACC may survive (for now), but WVU brass who have constantly supported expansion want to try and increase fan outcry. I'm not saying the ACC is solidified. It still could blow up down the road.

A lot of this probably hindges on the Maryland buyout.
 
A lot of this may hindge on the Maryland buyout.
Doubtful imo. Even if it is $40-50 million, the increase in money, both athletically and academically, for schools to go BIG over the ACC makes that pretty small.

I think it hinges on the BIG playing chicken with UNC. If UNC does not blink, BIG would take another (the next weakest link being FSU), and so on until UNC gives up on the ACC. However, the BIG does not have incentive to make that move right now, and other schools will wait to move until they know the BIG is no longer an option.
 
TheDudeofWV's post yesterday (FSU and Big Ten in talks) tells me that realignment is cooling down for the time being and the ACC may survive (for now), but WVU brass who have constantly supported expansion want to try and increase fan outcry. I'm not saying the ACC is solidified. It still could blow up down the road.

A lot of this probably hindges on the Maryland buyout.


I quit following the Dude of WV. If you pay attention to his comments over time, he really resents the ACC. It seems pretty likely to me that he may have some stuff right, but a lot of it is exaggerated or made up to 1) make the ACC appear weak for his own personal agenda, and 2) generate traffic to his site.

I honestly think the chances of the ACC breaking up are slim to none.

That said, that Maryland buyout price may have big repercussions.
 
Doubtful imo. Even if it is $40-50 million, the increase in money, both athletically and academically, for schools to go BIG over the ACC makes that pretty small.

I think it hinges on the BIG playing chicken with UNC. If UNC does not blink, BIG would take another (the next weakest link being FSU), and so on until UNC gives up on the ACC. However, the BIG does not have incentive to make that move right now, and other schools will wait to move until they know the BIG is no longer an option.

UNC isn't going anywhere unless NC State has a nice home, and then only if the ACC is exploding at that exact moment. The North Carolina Board of Governors (equivalent to Iowa's board of reagents) makes the final decision on any conference move, and they won't do anything that put's NC State in danger.

If they do, then the wrath of the NC State-friendly NC House and Senate will go scorched earth on this conference realignment stuff.
 
UNC isn't going anywhere unless NC State has a nice home, and then only if the ACC is exploding at that exact moment. The North Carolina Board of Governors (equivalent to Iowa's board of reagents) makes the final decision on any conference move, and they won't do anything that put's NC State in danger.

If they do, then the wrath of the NC State-friendly NC House and Senate will go scorched earth on this conference realignment stuff.

lol, NC State is in no danger of not being in a conference.
 
I quit following the Dude of WV. If you pay attention to his comments over time, he really resents the ACC. It seems pretty likely to me that he may have some stuff right, but a lot of it is exaggerated or made up to 1) make the ACC appear weak for his own personal agenda, and 2) generate traffic to his site.

I honestly think the chances of the ACC breaking up are slim to none.

That said, that Maryland buyout price may have big repercussions.

If the major surrounding conferences were at 16, 16, 16 or 12, 12, 12 right now I could see it. But we're at 14, 14, 10, 14. Everything (outside of Big 12 spin talking points) points to leagues most preferring 12 or 16.

Just don't think the major eastern and midwest leagues stay at 14,14,10,14 and the ACC is clearly the best available pool for the other three to even out to 16 or 12.

I'm highly skeptical of the Big 12 company line that FSU and 'random other team' isn't a huge victory for the Big 12. I think it's out there so if FSU never comes on board we don't look weak. I even think two non FSU teams could be a big victory for the conference if they bring big states like Miami/GTech or Miami/VaTech. Looking at it as a total TV contract divided by 10/12/14/16 is so much more simplistic than the way this game has been played.

If I were the Big 12, I'd want college football fans to believe a fib that we're only going beyond 10 if it's FSU/ND because that's the only couple that increases $ payout per school. But in private, I'd be thrilled with any combination of 2/4/6 of 6-8 of the current ACC schools (FSU, Pitt, GTech, VaTech, Clemson, Miami, NC State, UL in that order) while keeping WVU more solid long term.
 
UNC isn't going anywhere unless NC State has a nice home, and then only if the ACC is exploding at that exact moment. The North Carolina Board of Governors (equivalent to Iowa's board of reagents) makes the final decision on any conference move, and they won't do anything that put's NC State in danger.

If they do, then the wrath of the NC State-friendly NC House and Senate will go scorched earth on this conference realignment stuff.
NC St is not going to be left out. If there are any NC St considerations that are slowing down UNC, it is that they do not want NC St in the SEC, yet they also do not want them in the BIG 10.

Also, the thought of a BoG/BoR packaging schools to the bitter-end has never been tested. That too is a game of chicken. Right now they obviously have to appear like there is no way the state schools will split, both for leverage and also to appease the public. Would they really allow both schools to become second rate just to stick together? Doubtful. Plus, it would take more than a few NC St friendly politicians to stop realignment when so many other politician's constituencies would be all for it.
 
lol, NC State is in no danger of not being in a conference.

You could argue they're in a slight danger of being in a decimated ACC. The question is are their 4 non NC State ACC teams the Big Ten and SEC could both poach and at that point does NC State chose watered down ACC as better overall fit than the Big 12, or possibly if the ACC gets raided the Big 12 stops at its top two choices (FSU/Clem). I'd say slightly weakened ACC is most likely (at least two more teams are gonna leave), SEC second most likely, Big 12 third most likely, decimated ACC with NC State still in it least likely.
 
You could argue they're in a slight danger of being in a decimated ACC. The question is are their 4 non NC State ACC teams the Big Ten and SEC could both poach and at that point does NC State chose watered down ACC as better overall fit than the Big 12, or possibly if the ACC gets raided the Big 12 stops at its top two choices (FSU/Clem). I'd say slightly weakened ACC is most likely (at least two more teams are gonna leave), SEC second most likely, Big 12 third most likely, decimated ACC with NC State still in it least likely.
There is no chance NC St is left out. If UNC is not in the ACC, neither will NC St.
Imo at some point UNC is in the BIG, NC St in the SEC.

The ACC has messed up a good situation more so than the Big 12.
 
The other WVU blogger said that he hears a lot of what the dude hears, but most of it is being leaked to.throw people off.
TheDudeofWV's post yesterday (FSU and Big Ten in talks) tells me that realignment is cooling down for the time being and the ACC may survive (for now), but WVU brass who have constantly supported expansion want to try and increase fan outcry. I'm not saying the ACC is solidified. It still could blow up down the road.

A lot of this probably hindges on the Maryland buyout.
 
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