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***Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Thread***

I somehow feel better after that Ohtani deal came out. He was only ever going to the Dodgers. Nobody else ever had a legitimate shot. Now on to the real hot stove.
 
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ISUCubswin said:
Also to put us all in a dark place on this Monday night

David Bote will be making 2.5x more money in 2024 from his baseball team than Shohei Ohtani.
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He's getting 5.5 mil on the last year of the deal, it's still less than the 7 mil they are paying Mancini for 2024, Heyward still has 5 mil a year of deferred payments through 2027, and Barnhart is getting paid 3.25 mil for 2024 too. Have a feeling in 10 years the Dodgers are going to be facing some big financial issues when his 68 mil a year for the next decade kick in as they likely will keep adding to payroll over the next 10 years not gradually cutting it to get in position to commit a big chunk of money for a guy no longer with the team. They are going to need multiple WS titles to justify this contract. Even if they had paid it out over the 10 years he plays they would have been paying 70 mil AAV for a DH by the end of the contract when he turns 40.

This might make the Bobby Bonilla contract look like a bargain as the Dodgers likely will be paying some heavy luxury tax dollars on this deal too.
 
ISUCubswin said:
I like to use this site to dink around and see fair and/or reasonable trades.

www.baseballtradevalues.com

Trade Simulator | Baseball Trade Values

Imagine you’re the GM of your favorite team. Review values of all major and minor baseball players. Use our trade simulator, figure out a deal, and debate trades with fellow baseball fanatics.
www.baseballtradevalues.com www.baseballtradevalues.com

I bring this up as Bleacher Nation brought up the idea of the Mets possibly trading Alonso if Yamamoto goes anywhere else. So I checked in on what Morel for Alonso straight up would look like, and because of Alonso's $22 MM projection and just 1 year, the analyzer says the Mets would fleece the Cubs if that trade were done straight up.

A comp for Alonso, per that site, would be Wesneski or Mervis.
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I have zero interest in Alonso.
 
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CYdTracked said:
He's getting 5.5 mil on the last year of the deal, it's still less than the 7 mil they are paying Mancini for 2024, Heyward still has 5 mil a year of deferred payments through 2027, and Barnhart is getting paid 3.25 mil for 2024 too. Have a feeling in 10 years the Dodgers are going to be facing some big financial issues when his 68 mil a year for the next decade kick in as they likely will keep adding to payroll over the next 10 years not gradually cutting it to get in position to commit a big chunk of money for a guy no longer with the team. They are going to need multiple WS titles to justify this contract. Even if they had paid it out over the 10 years he plays they would have been paying 70 mil AAV for a DH by the end of the contract when he turns 40.

This might make the Bobby Bonilla contract look like a bargain as the Dodgers likely will be paying some heavy luxury tax dollars on this deal too.
Click to expand...
Dodgers will be fine. Deferred money knocks his AAV for luxury tax purposes down to $46mil and they have free cash flow to chuck around. They’ll keep on adding and compete hard in this current window.
 
Giants nabbed the CF from the KBO, which is a win for us in that the Giants were considered favorites for Bellinger.

My guess is it’s us, Jays, and Mariners. He’s probably overpriced for some of the smaller clubs that could use him.
 
Bowden came out with a new prediction list for the top 17 FAs available.

Predicts Cubs: Bellinger (7 years, $181 MM) seems like a no brainer if he’d actually be up for it.

Lists cubs as a “potential fit” for just about every other FA. Believes Hoskins will wait for Bellinger, and if Bellinger is not a Cub, Cubs will get Hoskins.
 
Possible new twist on Bellinger: The Cody Bellinger Market is Evolving in a Way That Could Bring Him Back to the Cubs - Bleacher Nation

I'd be fine signing him to a contract like Correa had where he had 2 opt outs on a 3 year deal. Takes the risk out of missing on a longer deal while also giving Belli an out if he replicates last season and wants to enter the market again. I think the longer he is available and his options dry up because the other teams went another direction the Cubs might be able to pounce on a deal like this and worst case if they did do a 5-7 year deal the AAV will not be as much as its rumored Boras is asking for currently. Loved the season he had with the Cubs last year but given his past is he another Soriano contract waiting to happen where he had a big free agent year then comes back down to earth after signing a big deal? There sure seems to be something spooking teams right now that he hasn't signed yet so maybe the analytics on his hard contact rate is a legit concern and will drive down his value.

I'm at a point where until I see some real smoke about another team offering him a big deal that the Cubs are best to wait it out and see if they can get him on a more friendly deal. Long term he's the solution for 1B as the Cubs just have too many OF prospects to play him every day in the OF with both Happ and Suzuki already locked into deals with no trade clauses. No need to overpay for a 1B really as still have 2 guys in Mervis and McGeary in the system and most years you can find value at the position in free agency or a trade without having to commit big long term dollars. Hoping to see some movement from the Cubs soon at least on the pitching side of things as still a lot of needs there to be filled
 
If the Indians are serious about a mega deal for Ramirez, Bieber, and apparently Naylor, what are you giving up?

Morel, Brown, Wicks, Caissie, Mervis get it done?

Resign Bellinger and he and Naylor can handle 1B duties. CF remains a question mark with PCA not quite ready.

2024 Lineup

1) Hoerner 2B
2) Ramirez 3B
3) Swanson SS
4) Bellinger CF?
5) Happ LF
6) Naylor 1B
7) Suzuki RF
8) Gomes C
9) ???? DH

SP
Steele
Bieber
Hendricks
Taillon
??? Michael Lorenzen on a 2 year deal?
 
If the Indians indeed are needing to clear a good chunk of salary, they are a nice trade fit with the cubs. Haven’t heard Ramirez name brought up as available, but hit fits in just about every roster in baseball and is locked in on a relatively cheap deal. Hard time seeing that happening.

Bieber makes a ton of sense.

Clase would be a great fit but cost a ton.

Naylor makes sense in a world where you don’t re-sign Bellinger. I don’t think you get both.

The cubs have the benefit of dealing from great depth if they want to do it. I get why Jed may want to clutch tight to that top tier of starters through. Horton for sure not going anywhere, Wicks looks like he’s got a big role this year, Brown feels like you’d be selling a little low given late season injury bug. That trio is top notch.
 
I don’t see the Guardians ever trading Ramirez, as they said in November while other names of theirs were swirling that they plan on Ramirez retiring a Guardian.

Using the trade simulator on baseballtradevalues.com, Clase (51.4) and Bieber (5.6) have a trade value of 57.00.

The most even trade I can find for that straight up is Morel, Assad, Wicks, Brown. I think that’s probably too much, but that’s just because Clase is valued so damn high.
 
Still waiting to see this big spending the Ricketts and Hoyer were hyping up leading into the offseason...

So far our 2 signings have been minor league deals that don't move the needle. With the money rumored for Yamamoto I doubt the Cubs are in on that. ESPN's updated predictions after Ohtani signed has the Cubs getting Hader. We'll wait and see, he makes a lot of sense but still have big needs for a bat or 2 and at least another top half of the rotation starter. If the season started today:

C: Amaya/Gomes
1B: ? Mervis?
2B: Nico
SS: Swanson
3B: Madrigal/Morel/Wisdom
LF: Happ
CF: Tauchman
RF: Suzuki
DH: I guess Morel if he is not playing in the field?

Rotation:
Steele
Taillon
Hendricks
Wicks
Assad or Smyly?

Really need to acquire a solid #2 guy for the rotation behind Steele as there are questions about all 4 of those guys after him. Which versions of Taillon and Hendricks do we get in 2024, can Wicks be consistent enough over a full season as he did get knocked around in his final start and got pulled early in another one so it's a small sample size, and can you count on Assad or Smyly to be consistent rotation guys as both were probably better in relief than they were in the rotation. Assad had a nice stretch in the rotation in August and halfway through September but probably was at his best playing that 2-3 inning role out of the pen. Getting 1 more for the rotation is a must, guessing Wicks would have the inside track on the final rotation spot then and will still have some young depth between Assad and the guys in Iowa if Wesneski and Brown aren't moved in a deal at some point.
 
1 name I haven't heard much about that I'd be open to signing is Jack Flaherty. I think he might be open to taking a prove it deal like Bellinger did last year as his value is very low.
 
CYdTracked said:
Still waiting to see this big spending the Ricketts and Hoyer were hyping up leading into the offseason...

So far our 2 signings have been minor league deals that don't move the needle. With the money rumored for Yamamoto I doubt the Cubs are in on that. ESPN's updated predictions after Ohtani signed has the Cubs getting Hader. We'll wait and see, he makes a lot of sense but still have big needs for a bat or 2 and at least another top half of the rotation starter. If the season started today:

C: Amaya/Gomes
1B: ? Mervis?
2B: Nico
SS: Swanson
3B: Madrigal/Morel/Wisdom
LF: Happ
CF: Tauchman
RF: Suzuki
DH: I guess Morel if he is not playing in the field?

Rotation:
Steele
Taillon
Hendricks
Wicks
Assad or Smyly?

Really need to acquire a solid #2 guy for the rotation behind Steele as there are questions about all 4 of those guys after him. Which versions of Taillon and Hendricks do we get in 2024, can Wicks be consistent enough over a full season as he did get knocked around in his final start and got pulled early in another one so it's a small sample size, and can you count on Assad or Smyly to be consistent rotation guys as both were probably better in relief than they were in the rotation. Assad had a nice stretch in the rotation in August and halfway through September but probably was at his best playing that 2-3 inning role out of the pen. Getting 1 more for the rotation is a must, guessing Wicks would have the inside track on the final rotation spot then and will still have some young depth between Assad and the guys in Iowa if Wesneski and Brown aren't moved in a deal at some point.
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Wow. That looks like a team that "MIGHT" squeak into the playoffs.
 
ISUTex said:
Wow. That looks like a team that "MIGHT" squeak into the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Probably does. The Brewers are going to take a step back, the Reds aren't quite ready yet, the Cardinals are a mess and the Pirates are the Pirates.

So, yay? I guess.

That said, I think the Bellinger market softens and he ends up back on a deal with a couple of opt outs. Something like 7/180 with opt outs after years 2 and 3. The Cubs aren't spending 9 figures on a reliever regardless of how good Hader is.
 
ISUTex said:
Wow. That looks like a team that "MIGHT" squeak into the playoffs.
Click to expand...

The goal shouldn't be "maybe" make the playoffs though. If you spend that kind of money to replace Ross with Counsell you gotta be active and improve the roster now. That is the kind of roster you would have let Ross manage another year IMO. It will be shame if they don't make a big upgrade with at least 1 position and 1 starting pitching along with some bullpen help. Not saying they should have spend the money the Dodgers did on Ohtani, that is risky business and could set a franchise back a decade with that kind of money but I sure hope they have a plan in place to do SOMETHING to upgrade the roster to at least compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Right now I still think this roster is on the outside looking in even in the weak NL Central. Especially if they don't get Belli back who replaces that production? The rotation outside of Steele probably doesn't scare anyone either as there are a lot of uncertainty of what kind of consistency and performance we'll get out of those guys.
 
My 12/14 wish list is the smartest and best and everything is how it should go, no debate.


1) Sign Bellinger and because of Happ, Suzuki, and prospects, you don’t worry about your outfield until after 2026. He can play CF to mentor PCA or RF/LF to relieve Happ and Suzuki. All money the next 2 offseasons can be focused on corner infield and pitching.

2) Sign Hoskins to a 1 year deal. If Mervis and McGeary aren’t panning out for 2025, you resign Hoskins or chase Alonso

3) Leave 3B alone. Madrigal, Shaw, Morel, and Mastrobouni all get a chance to show they deserve it. If no one earns it for 2025, splurge on Bregman

4) Sign Frankie Montas to a 1 year injury prove it deal. Dude seems completely under the radar since his injury and my guess is he’d be incredibly cheap.

Or sign Imanaga if he’s not going to make you break the bank.

5) Trade for Bieber only. Sign him to a luxurious 7 year extension with lots of club options after this year for protection if he gets hurt.
 
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