At some point you need to use the highly rated farm system. Either on the field for you or in trades. Rolling the dice on guys like this isn't going to cut it for very long. For every Bellinger you have your Hosmer's and Mancini's.
***Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Thread***
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Hoskins is a productive slugger that lost 2023 to injury. Basically he's the right type of guy to take a flyer on. Much better move than shipping prospects to the Mets for a 30 million dollar rental.
My thoughts exactly. The thing about the farm system is right now is the timeline for when they may be ready to contribute in Chicago doesn't exactly line up with fans expectations to win now nor fill immediate needs either. PCA, Canario, and Mervis are 3 that are probably the most ready to compete for an opening day job or at the very least some kind of opportunity by early to mid 2024 and Ben Brown probably will get a callup at some point too as could Brennen Davis. Then you have Horton and Shaw who are on the fast track but it's not a given either will be at a point to contribute in Chicago any sooner than later in 2024. So the question is will the front office try to patch something together for 2024 without blocking their top prospects and hope the fanbase has the stomach to wait it out with the sights set on being all-in for 2025 or is the goal to put a winner on the field in 2024 at the expense of some long term contracts and either blocking or trading away farm system capital?
I kind of want to see what our guys in the system can do since we waited this long to get there and traded a lot away to get them. If some of these guys can have a big impact it allows some flexibility in the payroll to spend on other areas of need while they are on their low cost contracts. Got a few other guys like Caissie, Alcantara, and McGeary all in that late 2024 to sometime in 2025 conversation too depending on their development. I don't want to see any of these guys traded for an expensive 1 year rental. If they are going to make trades it needs to be for someone that has multiple years of control at a position of need that we don't have depth in the organization to fill that spot.
I don't want Alonso in 2024 if we get Bellinger and/or Hoskins, who can serve as mentors for Mervis/McGeary. But just my Alonso perspective
1) The Mets have shown they're fine with paying contracts (closer to $20 MM for Alonso than $30 MM) for a better return.
2) His trade value is expected to be around Wesneski OR Mervis. That's not what the Mets are asking for, it's just what his current contract + talent projects.
3) The Mets will likely demand more in an Alonso trade, but they lose value in that he's been open that he will be hitting FA next year.
Some people in here are acting like we'd be selling the farm for Alonso but it wouldn't be ridiculous and it would only be in an instance where our only other 1B option is Mervis/Wisdom.
1) The Mets have shown they're fine with paying contracts (closer to $20 MM for Alonso than $30 MM) for a better return.
2) His trade value is expected to be around Wesneski OR Mervis. That's not what the Mets are asking for, it's just what his current contract + talent projects.
3) The Mets will likely demand more in an Alonso trade, but they lose value in that he's been open that he will be hitting FA next year.
Some people in here are acting like we'd be selling the farm for Alonso but it wouldn't be ridiculous and it would only be in an instance where our only other 1B option is Mervis/Wisdom.
Final point regarding Alonso, gut feeling tells me the reason the Cubs want a one year deal while Boras wants a multi-year deal for Hoskins is because the Cubs want the option of going Mervis, Hoskins, or Alonso in 2025.
If 3B can be figured out internally, as appears to be the hope, the Cubs will be the highest bidder for the top 1B on the market.
In a perfect world, the Cubs agree to a 2 year deal with Hoskins in which the second year comes with a club option.
If 3B can be figured out internally, as appears to be the hope, the Cubs will be the highest bidder for the top 1B on the market.
In a perfect world, the Cubs agree to a 2 year deal with Hoskins in which the second year comes with a club option.
If it only cost Wesneski or Mervis to get Alonso for 1 year I'd be ok with that but I doubt that the Mets would even take a package including both of them. I don't want Alonso if it cost 1 of our upper end prospects and I don't view either of those in that category right now. I think both have the tools to be capable MLB players but our limited small sample size from both in Chicago haven't shown that yet.
I'm not a fan of trading prospects for 1 year rentals unless they are the final piece(s) of a team in the hunt like the 2016 team was when they traded for Chapman and to a lesser extent Montgomery too who was a little more than just a rental beyond 2016. This roster has too many holes to trade away the future unless you get back a quality guy with more than 1 year left on his contract.
I'm not a fan of trading prospects for 1 year rentals unless they are the final piece(s) of a team in the hunt like the 2016 team was when they traded for Chapman and to a lesser extent Montgomery too who was a little more than just a rental beyond 2016. This roster has too many holes to trade away the future unless you get back a quality guy with more than 1 year left on his contract.
Guessing Hoskins contract will mirror what Bellinger got this season.
By getting Bellinger longterm plus Hoskins on a one year you have the flexibility in 2025. PCA Iin CF, or Mervis at 1B. If they both are ready all the better as Mervis can DH.
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I have mixed feelings about the Cubs getting Bellinger based on what I've read online.
One story talked about Boras' tendency to slow play signing his clients if he doesn't feel the price is right. The story cited clients of his who didn't sign until mid Jan/Feb.
Also Boras tweaked the Cubs by saying they need to show they want to compete with the big-boys in the FA market.
With the Cubs strong minor league system, I would rather sign lesser valued FA's on 1-3 year deals and get Cubs FA/trades done in next 30 days. Not a fan of waiting for Bellinger to be the domino on all other off-season roster moves.
Afterall, the Cubs could roll the dice 1st half of 2024 season and if they are in playoff mix- be aggressive in July.
One story talked about Boras' tendency to slow play signing his clients if he doesn't feel the price is right. The story cited clients of his who didn't sign until mid Jan/Feb.
Also Boras tweaked the Cubs by saying they need to show they want to compete with the big-boys in the FA market.
With the Cubs strong minor league system, I would rather sign lesser valued FA's on 1-3 year deals and get Cubs FA/trades done in next 30 days. Not a fan of waiting for Bellinger to be the domino on all other off-season roster moves.
Afterall, the Cubs could roll the dice 1st half of 2024 season and if they are in playoff mix- be aggressive in July.
I agree it would be better than a Alonso trade.
I just don't like Alonso. I'd rather he was never a Cub.
The Cubs have no reason to overpay for Bellinger at this point. Let the market play out and if you can get him on a cheaper short term deal with some options that is the ideal situation. PCA is the future in CF and 1B is not a position you commit 25+ mil over 7+ years to a guy that had injury issues and analytics that have concerns over a lack of hard contact. Take your chances that Mervis or McGeary break out there or look for a a solution later. Give Hoskins a similar deal like the did Bellinger with a 1 year prove it deal with an option. If you get 25+ homers 75+ RBI and .240+ average out of him then great, if he flops then you didn't commit a long term deal at least and you explore free agent options after the season.
The worry for me with Bellinger is I'd be ok with a 3-5 year deal with a club or mutual option after year 3 but I still have the Soriano and Heyward contracts on my mind where the Cubs overpaid for a guy off a career year that was not typical for them and then had buyer's remorse. If Bellinger played 3B I would say lock him up now as the Cubs have no sure fire prospect in waiting. Yes I know Shaw is in the mix there but he is not a sure thing quite yet.
Fortunately for the Cubs, all signs are pointing to Boras putting too high of a a ridiculous demand on Bellinger because the Yankees and Giants swerved way quick.
Gut tells me Bellinger will be a Cub. They’ll match any offer other teams give him, but he’s not going to get an offer that’s ridiculous.
Gut tells me Bellinger will be a Cub. They’ll match any offer other teams give him, but he’s not going to get an offer that’s ridiculous.
My hope is that this turns out like the Carlos Correa/Twins deal a couple of years ago, where Belli isn’t getting the offers he wants, so he agrees to a shorter, high avg. contract with opt outs. He’s still a young guy, and if he proves his comeback is real for another season, he’s in line for huge money. That would also buy the Cubs a year or two to make sure PCA is ready to take over in CF.
That's my hope too, there is no reason to overpay for a long term deal for him when there are plenty of OF prospects in the system. Even if they play him at 1B still would be a risky deal to take on. My guess is Boras has overpriced him and is now playing a game of chicken to see if someone will panic and offer a decent long term deal. If the analytics are scaring teams away then he's going to need to sign a prove it deal again where he can opt out and test the market again.
Rumors the last couple of days that Bellinger's price is repulsive to other teams. The good news is this has led to the Blue Jays working on a deal with Kevin Kiermeir. My guess is this takes them out of the running for Belli, but Bleacher Nation doesn't think this will impact his odds of going to Toronto.
Boras overplayed this one. The two horrible years and peripherals still exist.
I'll bet he's a Cub and it'll be something like 5/135 with opt outs after years 2 and 3.
I'll bet he's a Cub and it'll be something like 5/135 with opt outs after years 2 and 3.
Hoyer and the Ricketts doing what they always do, go into the offseason promising to be aggressive spenders then sit back and let everyone spend then settle for whatever is left. Yes they spend on Swanson last year and it was wise money as the other 3 SS got much bigger deals and didn't do any better than Swanson really.
I think the Cubs are at a point they'll wait on Boras to cave on Bellinger and Hoskins prices and sign them to short deals that allow them to cash in if they have big years. Probably will sign some pitching at some point too but likely go the bargain route after getting burned on the Taillon contract last year. Unfortunately the best option is to wait out the trade market and spend the prospect depth if someone with multiple years of control becomes available that fills a need.
I think the Cubs are at a point they'll wait on Boras to cave on Bellinger and Hoskins prices and sign them to short deals that allow them to cash in if they have big years. Probably will sign some pitching at some point too but likely go the bargain route after getting burned on the Taillon contract last year. Unfortunately the best option is to wait out the trade market and spend the prospect depth if someone with multiple years of control becomes available that fills a need.
That Tweet makes me initially cringe as Cubs fan. But its an overblown statement when according to CBS Sports 35 of the top 50 free agents haven't signed with a new team. And 3 of the those 15 signees stayed with their existing team.
Top 50 FA's
Now, if 30 days from now the Cubs haven't added a solid starter and filled a couple holes in their order (DH, 1B, 3B, CF), then its time to get nervous.
Heyman says the Cubs are now the favorites to get Bellinger.
I’d consider FA signings of Bellinger ($25 MM) Hoskins to 1 year ($17 MM), trade for Bieber without an extension ($12 MM), Clase ($4 MM) and trade for Gilbert from the Mariners because he eats innings. This still would give you about $15 MM to work on the bullpen before even worrying about CBT. Maybe nab Brent Sueter (Chicago native) and have $10 MM to play with for the trade deadline.
- Gives you the most talented team in the NL Central
- Keeps you under CBT
- Bieber, Hendricks, Smyly, Bote, Hoskins off the books in 2024 alone frees up $60 MM the next year, and I'd expect to go well over the CBT then. Grab a certified ace and one of the big sticks.
I’d consider FA signings of Bellinger ($25 MM) Hoskins to 1 year ($17 MM), trade for Bieber without an extension ($12 MM), Clase ($4 MM) and trade for Gilbert from the Mariners because he eats innings. This still would give you about $15 MM to work on the bullpen before even worrying about CBT. Maybe nab Brent Sueter (Chicago native) and have $10 MM to play with for the trade deadline.
- Gives you the most talented team in the NL Central
- Keeps you under CBT
- Bieber, Hendricks, Smyly, Bote, Hoskins off the books in 2024 alone frees up $60 MM the next year, and I'd expect to go well over the CBT then. Grab a certified ace and one of the big sticks.
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SI had a story saying Hoskins is only a fallback if they miss on Bellinger. Really doesn't make much sense. I like Tauchman but not everyday and don't figure PCA or Mervis to be in the majors opening day either.