I don't know if someone has asked this before: but OU has a much higher SOS than ISU. How is that possible? Their non-conference slate looks like nothing outsid of Gonzaga? That makes them a lock and ISU a "work to do" team?
***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
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I don' think we need to worry about Baylor getting in over us. We beat them twice, and they can't really pick up enough quality wins to put together a resume that is clearly better than ours. Plus, if they make a deep run or win the whole thing, it will make those two wins against them that much better. It would likely move those two wins into the top 50 rpi category. Nice to add 2 top 50 wins, especially one on the road.
You know, maybe we should play Gonzaga non conference. That would be a fun game.
I am not a Drake fan, sympathizer, etc... but what Western Kentucky did to Drake in the NCAA Tournament a few years back was criminal. That Drake team was fun to watch, they had talent, they put together a great season, and to have it end the way that it did was absolutely gut wrenching. I actually developed a hatred for Western Kentucky and Ty Rogers that day.
[video=youtube;bBLvM33q39k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBLvM33q39k[/video]
According to RPI forecast, Baylor would need to win the conf. tournament to actually finish with an RPI in the top 50. These are predictors, but there doesn't appear to be enough there to move them up that much with just a win or 2. ISU, however, could go from 47 to as high as 18 RPI if we win the B12 tourney. Looks like we need to win Thursday to stay in the top 50 RPI. That's why some are hesitant to call us a lock right now.
My father-in-law lives in the Des Moines area and has a huge Drake fan for a neighbor. He kept saying as that season went on that Drake wasn't that good and that Central Iowa was going to be disappointed in them in the tournament after hyping them so much that year. He doesn't follow college BB that intensely, but he certainly proved prophetic on that one.
Pat Forde picks ISU to win the Big XII Tournament.
Big 12 (March 13-16)
Site: Kansas City
Top three seeds: 1. Kansas 2. Kansas State 3. Oklahoma State
PF: Iowa State. This could be a carnage tourney, and the Cyclones can light up from 3-point range. If they’re hot for the entire weekend they’re as good as anyone else in Kansas City.
JE: Kansas. There have been times in league play when Kansas has lost its way on offense. There have also been times when the Jayhawks have been the class of the league. I'll gamble the latter version shows up more than the former in Kansas City, but look for Oklahoma State to be the team that capitalizes if Kansas falters.
Edit: I must have missed the thread about this yesterday.
Big 12 (March 13-16)
Site: Kansas City
Top three seeds: 1. Kansas 2. Kansas State 3. Oklahoma State
PF: Iowa State. This could be a carnage tourney, and the Cyclones can light up from 3-point range. If they’re hot for the entire weekend they’re as good as anyone else in Kansas City.
JE: Kansas. There have been times in league play when Kansas has lost its way on offense. There have also been times when the Jayhawks have been the class of the league. I'll gamble the latter version shows up more than the former in Kansas City, but look for Oklahoma State to be the team that capitalizes if Kansas falters.
Edit: I must have missed the thread about this yesterday.
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But Emmenecker Moneymaker was so good. He also had a sweet sandwich honoring his exploits.
That was a fun Drake team, and even though they lost that was a heck of a game to watch. Great shooting both ways.
IMO if everything was computerized like the BCS, we would be out if we lose to Oklahoma. However, I think we're still safe even if we lose to Oklahoma on Thursday.
Remember, RPI and all of that is just one thing taken into account by the committee when making selections. The RPI is a very simple formula and they know this. They also take in other things like an "eye test" into account. I am fairly certain that losing to a top 10 team in OT twice is not going to be counted by them as two FULL losses. They will most likely give us some credit for that. Remember, this is a money making venture too. They want teams who can compete with the best so they can create good matchups in this tournament. If we were 15-15 then this would be a moot point. However, we are 21-10 currently with two wins over top 15 teams (and a few others).. Not to count taking one of the top 10 teams in the country to OT twice, one of them on two calls that the Big 12 actually admitted wrongdoing to. Then we also almost beat another if it weren't for a last second shot at their home. I certainly think we pass the eye test.
And again this is a money making venture. While our market isn't as big as say Kentucky, it is still fairly decently sized. We also have the 6th highest scoring offense in the country, and have proven to be able to play with some of the best teams in the country and take them down to the wire even if we don't win it.
Honestly, after you take into consideration the eye test as well as our overall record and some of our wins, I think we are in. Obviously a win against Oklahoma would absolutely cement it though and would be really good (for many reasons).
Remember, RPI and all of that is just one thing taken into account by the committee when making selections. The RPI is a very simple formula and they know this. They also take in other things like an "eye test" into account. I am fairly certain that losing to a top 10 team in OT twice is not going to be counted by them as two FULL losses. They will most likely give us some credit for that. Remember, this is a money making venture too. They want teams who can compete with the best so they can create good matchups in this tournament. If we were 15-15 then this would be a moot point. However, we are 21-10 currently with two wins over top 15 teams (and a few others).. Not to count taking one of the top 10 teams in the country to OT twice, one of them on two calls that the Big 12 actually admitted wrongdoing to. Then we also almost beat another if it weren't for a last second shot at their home. I certainly think we pass the eye test.
And again this is a money making venture. While our market isn't as big as say Kentucky, it is still fairly decently sized. We also have the 6th highest scoring offense in the country, and have proven to be able to play with some of the best teams in the country and take them down to the wire even if we don't win it.
Honestly, after you take into consideration the eye test as well as our overall record and some of our wins, I think we are in. Obviously a win against Oklahoma would absolutely cement it though and would be really good (for many reasons).
I was curious about this too so I looked up the RPI's of the two teams non-conference schedules:
Code:
Iowa State
Southern 189 H 82-59 W
Alabama A&M 329 H 98-40 W
Campbell 289 H 88-68 W
North Carolina A&T 247 H 86-57 W
Cincinnati 49 N 78-70 L
Nevada Las Vegas 22 A 82-70 L
Brigham Young 69 H 83-62 W
Florida Gulf Coast 92 H 83-72 W
Iowa 76 A 80-71 L
Nebraska Omaha 285 H 93-65 W
Drake 146 N 86-77 W
Missouri Kansas City 283 A 61-76 W
Yale 202 H 80-70 W
Avg. 175.2
Oklahoma
Louisiana Monroe 309 H 85-51 W
Texas Arlington 135 A 59-63 W
Texas El Paso 99 N 68-61 W
Gonzaga 6 N 72-47 L
West Virginia 122 N 77-70 W
Oral Roberts 144 A 62-63 W
Northwestern St. 98 H 69-65 W
Arkansas 79 A 81-78 L
Texas A&M 96 H 64-54 W
Stephen F. Austin 64 H 55-56 L
Ohio 74 H 74-63 W
Texas A&M Corpus Chris 320 H 72-42 W
Avg. 128.8It's interesting because you can look at the teams and see 3 losses each and it looks like pretty comparable schedules and performance. No wins over teams with an RPI better than 65 and no losses to teams with an RPI grater than 80. When the RPI computers look at it though, all it sees is the team's record and then the average record of your opponents (and avg. opponent's opponent record). So clearly Oklahoma's average opponent was better, but you look at it and I think the two teams would have performed very similarly if they played each other's schedules.
Since I see conspiracies everywhere, I think we are in even if we lose to Oklahoma as long as we don't lay as big of a turd as we did last time. If we don't make the tourney, there will be multiple replays of the KU hose job in Hilton and KU certainly wouldn't want that.
Looks like we should not play UMKC and UNO any more. The Campbell game was fairly tough for such a low rated opponent.
Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
We play VCU according to Lunardi. I don't want to play against the havoc defense.
We play VCU according to Lunardi. I don't want to play against the havoc defense.
I don't know- we killed OSU when they were pressing us. I'm not familiar with the havoc defense, but if we handle and pass like we can, the pressure creates easy baskets and open looks.