***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
- Start date
I wouldn't say St. Mary's is a lock at all. They have one quality win, Creighton at home. Their next best wins are sweeping BYU. They are currently seeded below us on the Bracket Matrix. Depending on what happens, they may find themselves out.
America East - Vermont (1) - Next game vs. Albany for the Championship
A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 41, BPI 53, SOS 83) (1)
Fringe - Xavier (RPI 77, BPI 70, SOS 30), Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 84, SOS 68) (2) - Great win by Temple. That gets them into the NCAA Tournament.
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 66, BPI 38, SOS 99) (1) - Virginia gets the win and effectively knocks out Maryland.
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (3)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 43, SOS 22), Iowa State (RPI 47, BPI 35, SOS 59) (2)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 61, BPI 47, SOS 47) (1) - ISU got the two wins it needed. Oklahoma comes back to the bubble with that inexplicable loss to TCU. Baylor stays fringe with that insane win over Kansas. Baylor has a ton of work to do. the winner of Oklahoma vs. ISU becomes a solid lock for the NCAA Tourney.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 52, BPI 59, SOS 25) (1)
Fringe: Providence (RPI 83, BPI 61, SOS 8) (1) - Missed chance for Providence. Could not get the win over UCONN. Will now need to get to the Big East championship game.
Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid.
Big South - Liberty (1)
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 75, BPI 48, SOS 62) (1) - Got the win over Nebraska, and need to go deep in the BIg Ten tourney. The non-con schedule is killing this team.
Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.
CAA - James Madison (1)
CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 35, BPI 62, SOS 117)
Horizon - Valparaiso (1) - Next game versus Wight State for the Championship.
Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.
MAAC - Iona (1)
MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.
MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman or Coppin State. Must win Auto Bid
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 37, BPI 45, SOS 86) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 71, BPI 86, SOS 89) (1) - Big win by Boise State over SDSU. They are looking very solid for the tournament. Air Force got a great win over New Mexico, but still need to make a run in the MWC tournament. This team has the potential to do so.
Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.
Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion
Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 36, BPI 37, SOS 5) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 91, BPI 67, SOS 79) (1) - Bad loss by Colorado to Oregon State. Still in ok position, but need one more win. ASU needs to win the Pac -12 tournament.
Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Lafayette for the Patriot League Championship. (RPI 51, BPI 58, SOS 170)
SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 44, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 60, SOS 28), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 104) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 66, SOS 52), Arkansas (RPI 80, BPI 74, SOS 65) (2) - All bubble teams won on Saturday. Kentucky and Tennessee really helped themselves. The key for everyone is no bad losses. So, don't lose in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Southern - Davidson (1) -
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid
SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid
Summit League - South Dakota State (1) - Next game versus North Dakota State for the championship. Must win Auto Bid
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 28, BPI 46, SOS 135)
WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 33, SOS 114) (1)
WAC - Denver (1) - Next game versus Texas State or Seattle
Locks: 59
Bubble and Fringe: 21
With 59 locks, that leaves only 9 spots for 21 Bubble and Fringe teams.
A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 41, BPI 53, SOS 83) (1)
Fringe - Xavier (RPI 77, BPI 70, SOS 30), Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 84, SOS 68) (2) - Great win by Temple. That gets them into the NCAA Tournament.
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 66, BPI 38, SOS 99) (1) - Virginia gets the win and effectively knocks out Maryland.
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (3)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 43, SOS 22), Iowa State (RPI 47, BPI 35, SOS 59) (2)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 61, BPI 47, SOS 47) (1) - ISU got the two wins it needed. Oklahoma comes back to the bubble with that inexplicable loss to TCU. Baylor stays fringe with that insane win over Kansas. Baylor has a ton of work to do. the winner of Oklahoma vs. ISU becomes a solid lock for the NCAA Tourney.
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 52, BPI 59, SOS 25) (1)
Fringe: Providence (RPI 83, BPI 61, SOS 8) (1) - Missed chance for Providence. Could not get the win over UCONN. Will now need to get to the Big East championship game.
Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid.
Big South - Liberty (1)
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 75, BPI 48, SOS 62) (1) - Got the win over Nebraska, and need to go deep in the BIg Ten tourney. The non-con schedule is killing this team.
Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.
CAA - James Madison (1)
CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 35, BPI 62, SOS 117)
Horizon - Valparaiso (1) - Next game versus Wight State for the Championship.
Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.
MAAC - Iona (1)
MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.
MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman or Coppin State. Must win Auto Bid
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 37, BPI 45, SOS 86) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 71, BPI 86, SOS 89) (1) - Big win by Boise State over SDSU. They are looking very solid for the tournament. Air Force got a great win over New Mexico, but still need to make a run in the MWC tournament. This team has the potential to do so.
Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1) - Next game versus Mount Saint Mary's for the Championship. Must win Auto Bid. League leader Robert MOrris eliminated.
Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion
Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 36, BPI 37, SOS 5) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 91, BPI 67, SOS 79) (1) - Bad loss by Colorado to Oregon State. Still in ok position, but need one more win. ASU needs to win the Pac -12 tournament.
Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Lafayette for the Patriot League Championship. (RPI 51, BPI 58, SOS 170)
SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 44, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 60, SOS 28), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 104) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 66, SOS 52), Arkansas (RPI 80, BPI 74, SOS 65) (2) - All bubble teams won on Saturday. Kentucky and Tennessee really helped themselves. The key for everyone is no bad losses. So, don't lose in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Southern - Davidson (1) -
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid
SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid
Summit League - South Dakota State (1) - Next game versus North Dakota State for the championship. Must win Auto Bid
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 28, BPI 46, SOS 135)
WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 33, SOS 114) (1)
WAC - Denver (1) - Next game versus Texas State or Seattle
Locks: 59
Bubble and Fringe: 21
With 59 locks, that leaves only 9 spots for 21 Bubble and Fringe teams.
If you think St. Mary's is out thats fine. You might also want to say we had better win on Thursday.
I think St. Mary's is still in even though they were dominated by Gonzaga. I'm also pretty confident about ISU. Winning though would take away any suspense.
Not sure if your post is directed at me, but if it is I didn't say I thought they were out. I just said I don't think they are a lock. I think they probably still get in, and probably seeded a few spots below ISU IMO. I don't think us beating OU is all that important to our resume. We have shown the ability to beat tournament teams on multiple occasions. St. Mary's has beat one tournament team, Creighton at home. When your next best win is sweeping BYU that's not what I would call real impressive. I only care in that I think they provide a buffer if a bunch of bubble teams go off.
My bracket on Sunday night in CF member bracketology had St. Mary's in Last Four In, but I'm convinced SMC will be in the field (and probably not in the play-in line).
Resume says otherwise, I don't personally think there's a lot of "There" there, compared to other bubble teams. But it's one of those teams that gets into the field almost every year without a lot of controversy.
Although my recent bracket doesn't reflect it (an expectation vs. pure analysis situation), I believe Air Force actually has a slightly better body of work (but AFA won't get in without auto-bid or at least run to MWC final):
St. Mary's-Air Force comparison
New ESPN Bubble Watch:
ISU on list of teams with "work left to do" instead of "lock" or "should be in"
College Basketball Bubble Watch - Conference tournaments create their own mid-major madness - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN
ISU on list of teams with "work left to do" instead of "lock" or "should be in"
College Basketball Bubble Watch - Conference tournaments create their own mid-major madness - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN
It's looking like we are solidly becoming an 11 seed in the tournament according to Bracket Matrix. It seems that if we beat Oklahoma we could push ourselves into a 10 seed. The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2013
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Never play Western Kentucky in the Dance. That doesn't go well for anybody. Well, anybody except them.
It is kind of like Iowa football from this past season. From time to time you will hear Iowa fans brag about beating a BCS team last fall. Now that is a true statement but does beating Northern Illinois, a team that compiled a 12-2 record mean much when they won those games against the 123rd toughest schedule out of 124 teams? No it doesn't.
Which win is better in this scenario:
ISU beats Stony Brook who is 23-7 on the year OR ISU beats Ohio State who is also 23-7 on the year?
Both teams have the same record, both teams had successful seasons this year, but why is Ohio State clearly the better win? Ohio State compiled that record against the 13th toughest schedule in the country while Stony Brook compiled their record against the 259th toughest schedule in the country. Who your opponents play matters otherwise these wins would be equal in value.
