I think I started to repond to this the other day and got distracted. You are right for the most part.
If I had a gun to my head and had to pick one QB to win a game now I’d say it depends on the game. Kept against a weaker offense because we won’t need a ton of points because our D will stop the other team even then we haven’t seen anything to suggest poor decision making from Noland. Against a team that has a good offense like an OSU or Memphis our d is good but we will still need to score. Then I’d go Zeb.
You don’t sacrifice a win to get experience but when there is debate you factor in how long they will be here especially in an exhibition.
Personally when it comes to game manager vs gunslinger I’d prefer a game manager. The issue is Kempt just isn’t that good. I love what he’s done this year and if he does play I hope he plays spectacular. The issue is the offense I really one diminsional when he plays. We can’t rely on him to be able to make the throws. I think he knows what throw he should make he just can’t do it. I think the injury has been way overplayed. Maybe I’m just missing it but we didn’t hear about an injury till after OSU. He wasn’t really good outside of the Oklahoma game. You can say what you want but we need to score more than 20 pts on offense to win most games even with our defense.
Let’s be honest about his performances against TCU, Tech, and WVU. Maybe he was hurt but why didn’t we hear about it? The offense is clearly more dynamic and powerful with Zeb. The question is do you trust him to not make mistakes as a freshmen.
I'm just not seeing it. I get the 'in the future' potential but I'm not seeing it this year already.
Completions, yards, avg, TD/INT, QBR
Kempt:
Vs OU: 18/24, 343, 14.3, 3/0, 95.2
Vs KU: 13/20, 122, 6.1, 1/0, 57.2
Vs Tech: 22/32, 192, 6.0, 3/1, 83.6
Vs TCU: 21/35, 202, 5.8, 2/1, 49.2
Vs WVU: 27/40, 249, 6.2, 1/1, 55.7
Vs OSU: 12/18, 101, 5.6, 1/0, 54.5
VS BAY:
VS KSU: 24/36, 264, 7.3, 2/0, 71.1
Noland:
Vs OU:
Vs KU: 5/9, 90, 10.0, 0/0, 34.8
Vs Tech:
Vs TCU:
Vs WVU:
Vs OSU: 17/28, 263, 9.4, 0/1, 51.9
VS BAY: 14/28, 180, 6.4, 2/0, 72.4
Vs KSU:
Zeb's best performance has the same rating as Kempt playing against KSU in the last game. Baylor one of the worst defenses in college football and KSU one of the best in the Big 12.
The overall completion % difference of 67 for Kempt vs 55 for Noland is pretty big. Noland's average completion is .8 yards longer. To me that's not enough extra big hits to make up for 12% lower completions. QBR agrees with a 16 point gap. It's also hard to argue that Kempt doesn't go for the big hitters and big plays when he has more TD passes per completion. Kempt threw a TD every 16 passes, Zeb every 33. Maybe that just means he's been much better passing in the red zone, which also would really matter, but more TDs are scored per pass when he's letting the ball go.
I'll be happy with whatever the coaches think, but I think this staff has shown they play the best player. You saw it with DM suddenly getting a ton of snaps last year at running back even though he was the new guy. They play the best guy. If Noland starts I'm guessing he has been dazzling in the bowl practices because the body of evidence is when Kempt is healthy he's the best QB we've had in many seasons.