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NDSU favored by 2

123cyclones said:
This could be a good football game if ISU doesnt put them away early. I just watched parts of last years NDSU @ KSU game. The entire game is on utube. That gives you a pretty good idea of the kind of team we will see.

It comes down to coaching. I don't think NDSU loses much in talent but they lost a lot in coaching. What they have now is not Coach Bohls staff or leadership. Its a largely unproven head coach that did a nice job on defense and a lot of new assistants. I think they are pretty well paid so they might be good but they have a long way to go to prove they are the equal of what they have been used to at NDSU.

Their head coach, I forget his name, was also a D coordinator at UNI. I didn't bother to look up the record but I’m sure he has been an assistant on UNI teams the visited Ames.

Talent may be equal, I give a slight edge to the Cyclones because of roster depth and experience, but coaching is decidedly not. Edge Cyclones and that might be the game because it is a 2 point affair.
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Still skeptical of who you say you are.
 
123cyclones said:
This could be a good football game if ISU doesnt put them away early. I just watched parts of last years NDSU @ KSU game. The entire game is on utube. That gives you a pretty good idea of the kind of team we will see.

It comes down to coaching. I don't think NDSU loses much in talent but they lost a lot in coaching. What they have now is not Coach Bohls staff or leadership. Its a largely unproven head coach that did a nice job on defense and a lot of new assistants. I think they are pretty well paid so they might be good but they have a long way to go to prove they are the equal of what they have been used to at NDSU.

Their head coach, I forget his name, was also a D coordinator at UNI. I didn't bother to look up the record but I’m sure he has been an assistant on UNI teams the visited Ames.

Talent may be equal, I give a slight edge to the Cyclones because of roster depth and experience, but coaching is decidedly not. Edge Cyclones and that might be the game because it is a 2 point affair.
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You do know Craig Bohl had coached before against KSU when he was in Lincoln, so he knew what was coming.
 
And it has already moved to a pick 'em. I wonder how much further it'll move our way in the next week and a half.
 
Judoka said:
And it has already moved to a pick 'em. I wonder how much further it'll move our way in the next week and a half.
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Which is exactly why I predicted that Vegas would open with ISU favored (although I guess Im not sure if Vegas has lines for FBS/FCS games).
 
chuckd4735 said:
Which is exactly why I predicted that Vegas would open with ISU favored (although I guess Im not sure if Vegas has lines for FBS/FCS games).
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Update from Sportsbet.com - looks like things have changed.

08/30/2014
12:00 PM (EST)		 275
276 		North Dakota State
Iowa State

[TD="colspan: 6"]North Dakota State at Iowa State[/TD]

[TD="class: item, align: left"] +2½ -120
-2½ -120 [/TD]
[TD="class: item, align: left"]+110
-150 [/TD]
 
WoolyBully said:
Update from Sportsbet.com - looks like things have changed.

08/30/2014
12:00 PM (EST)		 275
276		 North Dakota State
Iowa State

[TD="colspan: 6"]North Dakota State at Iowa State[/TD]

[TD="class: item, align: left"] +2½ -120
-2½ -120[/TD]
[TD="class: item, align: left"]+110
-150[/TD]
Click to expand...
Hmm, the NDSU dynasty are dogs now in this game.
 
Insane movement in the last two days. Going from a pick to Iowa State -2.5 at 5dimes. The spread has moved 6 points in the two weeks which is nothing short of amazing in the gambling world. Especially, when you have no injuries involved. I would suspect that it will stay between -2.5 and pk at this point. Crossing the field goal threshold will take a lot of money.

Also important to note that this is a much better sign than the Drake v. Iowa State b-ball game. I remember that day very well and alot of "heavier bettors" at different websites were hitting the Cyclones. But the line stayed right at Drake -1.0. When that happens you start to get the feeling that you walked into a "trap."
 
rochclone said:
Insane movement in the last two days. Going from a pick to Iowa State -2.5 at 5dimes. The spread has moved 6 points in the two weeks which is nothing short of amazing in the gambling world. Especially, when you have no injuries involved. I would suspect that it will stay between -2.5 and pk at this point. Crossing the field goal threshold will take a lot of money.

Also important to note that this is a much better sign than the Drake v. Iowa State b-ball game. I remember that day very well and alot of "heavier bettors" at different websites were hitting the Cyclones. But the line stayed right at Drake -1.0. When that happens you start to get the feeling that you walked into a "trap."
Click to expand...

Why? If the big money was coming in on ISU and the line wasn't moving that would usually mean the public is heavy on Drake, which would usually makes me feel better if I was on ISU. I can't see the public really pounding Drake for that game so I'm guessing you have that scenario backwards and the big money was coming in on Drake which was what was preventing the line from moving.
 
CyJack13 said:
Why? If the big money was coming in on ISU and the line wasn't moving that would usually mean the public is heavy on Drake, which would usually makes me feel better if I was on ISU. I can't see the public really pounding Drake for that game so I'm guessing you have that scenario backwards and the big money was coming in on Drake which was what was preventing the line from moving.
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Using this example: if heavy money was coming in on Iowa State and the line didn't move, it is likely because the oddsmakers wanted the public to continue betting on Iowa State. They thought there was some inefficiency in the public perception of the teams and believed Drake would win. Thus the "trap" feeling.
 
Thanks for explaining this AltHawk. The common misperception from people is that Vegas wants equal money on a game. They don't give a crap if Iowa State has $800,000 on it and North Dakota State $400,000. They want to win. However, what they do want to avoid is a tremendous amount of line movement from opening line to closing line. That type of line movement allows a potential "middle" situation which subsequently can cost the books alot of money.
 
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AltHawk said:
Using this example: if heavy money was coming in on Iowa State and the line didn't move, it is likely because the oddsmakers wanted the public to continue betting on Iowa State. They thought there was some inefficiency in the public perception of the teams and believed Drake would win. Thus the "trap" feeling.
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On a November non-conf basketball game between an ISU team before Hoiball was established and Drake? That's highly doubtful. This isn't an NFL playoff game or big time college football game where Vegas might feel there is money to be made by taking a side. This was a weeknight college basketball game early in the season, casinos are looking to get even money on those type of games. The line on that game actually moved from ISU -4.5 to -1 (I'll link it when I'm not at work), so the big money was obviously coming in on Drake, not ISU prior to the game.
 
rochclone said:
Thanks for explaining this AltHawk. The common misperception from people is that Vegas wants equal money on a game. They don't give a crap if Iowa State has $800,000 on it and North Dakota State $400,000. They want to win. However, what they do want to avoid is a tremendous amount of line movement from opening line to closing line. That type of line movement allows a potential "middle" situation which subsequently can cost the books alot of money.
Click to expand...

Sportsbooks make their money off the vig, not off betting on one side or another beating the spread. The whole business model is to make money regardless of the outcome. A bookmaker who tries to be smarter than everybody else and nudge betting to one side isn't going to last very long.

Do you have a source for this being a misconception?
 
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That game at Drake still stinks to high heaven. Stinks as in one person with deep pockets knowing "something" and raking in as much public money as possible. I won't be surprised if we know more in 20 years.
 
I guess my explanation is this. Vegas and offshore books look at bettors differently. If you are a professional and wager $100,000 a game then you will be able to move a line. But if they view the bettor as a "square" then you can't bet $500,000 and that line isn't moving a half a point. They care about being heavy on one side only if they respect the bettor.
 
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