NDSU favored by 2

[CyJack13]

So here's a link to the line movement for the ISU-Drake game, 8th post down in the forum:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/1394461-strong-play-tonight-college-hoops.html

Your whole notion that the game stayed at ISU -1 when all the big money was coming in on ISU is just wrong. The line opened at ISU -3.5, got up to ISU -5 then dropped to ISU -1, the big money was obviously coming in on Drake.

 

[ClonesFTW]

You can easily point out who hasn't ever seriously been involved in sports-wagering... Fellas, the books don't want 50-50, if the public is hammering a side and the book predicts the other way the line will stay the same. Rochclone's point was on track to how it works.

 

[CyJack13]

You can easily point out who hasn't ever seriously been involved in sports-wagering... Fellas, the books don't want 50-50, if the public is hammering a side and the book predicts the other way the line will stay the same. Rochclone's point was on track to how it works.

Except that's not what happened at all, as the line didn't say the same, rather moved from ISU-4.5 to ISU -1.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Except that's not what happened at all, as the line didn't say the same, rather moved from ISU-4.5 to ISU -1.

I wasn't referring to that game, I was just making a generalization about public wagering/reverse line movements.

 

[CyJack13]

I wasn't referring to that game, I was just making a generalization about public wagering/reverse line movements.

Well either way, it's not true. They want equal money on both sides, that's the whole point of the line. I can post plenty of links to interviews with oddsmakers where they talk about that. They may get stuck on a side due to the money coming in an unexpected manner and decide they're OK with taking a risk there to avoid a dramatic line change opening them up to further losses, but they absolutely try to get even money.

If you have any link to an oddsmaker talking about how they take a side, I would be interested in reading it.

 

[rochclone]

CyJack,

My apologies on the Drake/ISU line movement...I simply didn't recall the line movement occurring in that fashion. As for the other point about wanting equal money on both sides....I don't necessarily disagree with you. The goal of the opening line is to get equal money on both sides. However, after that point....Vegas/Sportbooks/Locals none of them care at that point if they have money on both sides if it means a substantial movement in the lines. Great example is the following...Iowa State opens up as a 5.5 favorite against Toledo. The books want money on both sides but when it comes to line movement they are primarily considering only "smart" money. For instance they don't want to move that line 5.5 to 6.0 to 6.5 to 7.5 just because in the opening 24 hours they are heavy on Iowa State money by $150,000. It sets them up for a "professional" or often groups of professionals dropping $500,000 on Toledo at plus 7.5 and now they feel obligated to move it back under 7.0 opening up the opportunity to lose multiple bets.

The goal of the opening line is to get equal money...but more important to a book is making sure the line stays "tight" from "open" to "close."