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Matt Thomas predictions

I wonder if Matt would break through a bit better if his time on the court was spent with Naz instead of in relief of Naz? That way, he wouldn't have to be the primary shooter but secondary instead. Let Naz carry the pressure, dude can handle it. Run them both off a screen at the same time and give Monte the option to hit whichever is open for a decent look.
 
Matt will get there, I just hope it is with ISU. If he decides on another school in the future. He needs to think of number 1. We are all his best/worst analyst. We have been popping 3's from the couch and bar seat for years.
 
I'm hoping the law of averages takes over and he shoots like 90% from three the rest of the season. If he doesn't then Fred needs to call up some sort of sports psychologist.
 
cyclonespiker33 said:
You can't leave out the games before that because Naz showed something that Matt isn't showing this year
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I posted the specific games I did because that was late January to early March... AKA the exact time we are at right now. The second half of the conference season. Now, yes, Naz has had some huge games before. But in general he just became the Naz we all know and love THIS YEAR. Give Matt time, just like we all gave Naz time.
 
AMarner32 said:
I posted the specific games I did because that was late January to early March... AKA the exact time we are at right now. The second half of the conference season. Now, yes, Naz has had some huge games before. But in general he just became the Naz we all know and love THIS YEAR. Give Matt time, just like we all gave Naz time.
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You're saying Matt this year equals Naz last year. Naz may have had a slump at some time during the year but he had long stretches of being very good. Matt has been in a slump essentially all year.
 
He has played 58 collegiate games. Most of his "flashes of greatness" have come against really bad competition. I'm not saying he can't break through his junior or senior years, but I'm not going to count on it.

A slump would suggest he isn't performing at the level he usually does, except how he has been performing lately is about par for the course. I don't understand how people expect his shot to go in every time either. Whenever I see him pull up for shot, I anticipate a miss.
 
I agree that Thomas right now is a bit of a victim of the program's expectations. Coming out of high school I remember Fred describing him as the best pure shooter in the class. Of course he also came in and started as a freshman. And then we have comments coming out about how he is just knocking down everything in practice. If it wasn't for that, I would probably just chalk it up as a sophomore who just isn't quite ready for prime time. But given that input over the last couple years, I'm actually more inclined at this point to believe it is a mental thing, and that maybe he is just a practice all star who will never be a major force on game days.
 
AMarner32 said:
Matt can be a great player. Right now he looks pretty average/mediocre because he doesn't have to play much. His efficiency numbers are actually really good. He's been more efficient offensively than Nader this year. His defensive efficiency is similar to that of Naz, Georges and Dustin. He scores at about the same rate as Monte (about 18 points per 100 possessions) and he turns the ball over less than anyone else on the team. His 3 point percentage and lack of minutes are what makes him look bad.
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His PER is 10.1 which is really good?? 8th best on team and next closest is Nader at 13.8.

Conference is even worse. 7.9 and next closest is Naz at 14.6.

He is certainly more efficient than Nader on offense but his +/- on defense is the worst on the team by far. Nader has a negative offensive +/- and still has an overall 2.3 versus Thomas 1.5.

Not sure where you get your stats from. And for the record I believe Thomas will be a great contributor at ISU before all is said and done. Just not this year.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa-state/2015.html
 
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AMarner32 said:
So you're saying he's Naz Long from last year?
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This are Naz's game logs from last year. The far right column is points. Naz was horrendously inconsistent. He got better. The only difference between Naz and Matt to the same point in their careers is that Matt had higher expectations. That's literally the only thing going against Matt. If you actually look at the metrics and advanced numbers, Matt is better right now than Naz was for most of last year.
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Naz makes 500 threes a day in practice. What do the others do?
 
Goothrey said:
He has played 58 collegiate games. Most of his "flashes of greatness" have come against really bad competition. I'm not saying he can't break through his junior or senior years, but I'm not going to count on it.

A slump would suggest he isn't performing at the level he usually does, except how he has been performing lately is about par for the course. I don't understand how people expect his shot to go in every time either. Whenever I see him pull up for shot, I anticipate a miss.
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That shows you have low expectations for him. Nader shoots a lower three point percentage, but I don't see you complaining about Abdel.
 
I would agree that he is also a little bit of a victim of expectation. I guess I just don't understand some of the bashing. I realize that he's not shooting great, and he's had some untimely turnovers, etc. But at the same time, I don't think we win our game with OSU without him. Conversely, I don't think he's cost us any games. It's not like he's out there shooting us out of games. He knows what his role is, so he goes out there and let's a couple fly. If he doesn't make them he continues to work hard and hustles and politely sits next to coach as the other players take over down the stretch.

Just let him continue to work and grow. The way I see it he's a great 8th man at the moment. He may help you win, he's not going to cost you games and nobody can argue that he stretches the defense whether he's making 3's or not.
 
Psiclone said:
I predict that people who judge the worth of a player based only on scoring and think they know more than the coaches will continue to post negative comments because they think that if they say something negative, they will sound like they actually know something about basketball. (You know, the same people who are/were critical of BDJ despite him being near the top in almost every team and Big XII statistical category.)
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Love the kid, but his +/-, offensive rating, etc are absolutely atrocious. I believe in his talent because I think he has the tools but I have zero expectations right now.
 
BryceC said:
Love the kid, but his +/-, offensive rating, etc are absolutely atrocious. I believe in his talent because I think he has the tools but I have zero expectations right now.
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His offensive rating per 100 possessions is five points better than Nader. Nader also shoots a lower percent on threes, Nader turns the ball over more, and Nader assists less. If we're going to hate on Matt so often, why not talk about Nader as well? Why is Matt the whipping boy?
 
Goothrey said:
He has played 58 collegiate games. Most of his "flashes of greatness" have come against really bad competition. I'm not saying he can't break through his junior or senior years, but I'm not going to count on it.

A slump would suggest he isn't performing at the level he usually does, except how he has been performing lately is about par for the course. I don't understand how people expect his shot to go in every time either. Whenever I see him pull up for shot, I anticipate a miss.
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I'm not sure what qualifies as a "flash of greatness" but I used shooting at least 40% from 3 with at least 2 makes as a threshhold. Here are the games that qualify which you could probably say right about half are better than "really bad competition".

3-7 TA&MCC
2-5 @ BYU
3-6 UMKC
4-8 Auburn
2-3 @ TTU
4-6 KSU #22
3-5 OU #23
2-4 @ WVU
2-4 UT #19
3-4 v. Bama
4-7 Lamar
2-3 OSU
 
cmjh10 said:
Bryce takes mid range jumpers all the time, so does Monte. I dont think that the mid range is a forbidden shot in this offense anymore.
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Per Fred, Bryce is the only one with the green light to take that shot and for good reason - he makes almost all of them.
 
I'll just say this. I can't wait to watch you guys eat crow in two years when Matt is All-Big 12 first team. He'll get there. Just be patient.
 
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