Matt Thomas predictions

[cyclonespiker33]

So what you are saying is that if we are down 3 with under 5 seconds to go Fred won't have a natural long range shooter in at that time, mmmmkay.

I would have Monte, Naz, BDJ, and Georges in the game for sure. I could definitely see having Nader or even Hogue in the game before Matt unless he had already made a couple threes in that game.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't know that you can call what we've seen so far a slump. I mean, we've seen 1.5 seasons now of this...hit a couple of threes one game, go 0-4 each of the next four games. Defense is sketchy, rebounding is really good for a guard, ball handling is OK (as long as he's a secondary ball handler). That's kind of what he is. Yeah, he can improve some and maybe learn to be more consistent, but he's not going to have the explosive offensive game that Naz does.

For predictions, I think that he has a decision to make. He's either going to be the 7th-8th guy in our rotation or he's going to transfer. I'm not advocating transfer by any means, but I could see why he would consider it.

Naz averaged 6.9 MPG and 1.4 PPG as a true freshman (and I would imagine nearly all of that was OOC).

Now, he's one of the most versatile offensive weapons we've seen in awhile as a 40% three-point shooter, clutch like crazy, great on the break, a passable slasher, and a solid defender.

I don't think anybody would have seen "awesome Sixth Man/great starter" out of him after Year 1. I certainly didn't. I figured SDW and Thomas had the better pedigree to be our future 2.

I guess I was wrong.

Thomas could still break out on us. You never know. The tools are there. Plenty of players have leaps between seasons for various reasons.

I was hoping for a more rounded Scott Christopherson--basically what we have in Naz Long at the moment. We might still get that out of Thomas.

Or, alas, he'll fall behind Cooke, Custer, and maybe some other transfer in the rotation for bench time next year (presuming Morris and Long will start) and that'll be about all for him.

 

[AMarner32]

At some point you just have to realize it isn't a slump and is just the way he is.

Matt can be a great player. Right now he looks pretty average/mediocre because he doesn't have to play much. His efficiency numbers are actually really good. He's been more efficient offensively than Nader this year. His defensive efficiency is similar to that of Naz, Georges and Dustin. He scores at about the same rate as Monte (about 18 points per 100 possessions) and he turns the ball over less than anyone else on the team. His 3 point percentage and lack of minutes are what makes him look bad.

 

[nallen34]

I'll probably get ridiculed for this but whatever. If Dorsey-Walker was the 8th man on this team with the same numbers and skill set as Thomas, would people be supporting him as much as they do Thomas and saying that he's just in a slump and lacks confidence? Or is there a certain characteristic about Thomas that is blinding people from his actual abilities?

 

[cyclonespiker33]

I'll probably get ridiculed for this but whatever. If Dorsey-Walker was the 8th man on this team with the same numbers and skill set as Thomas, would people be supporting him as much as they do Thomas and saying that he's just in a slump and lacks confidence? Or is there a certain characteristic about Thomas that is blinding people from his actual abilities?

That he's white?

 

[fukthehawks]

They need to hypnotize him before every game like doug mcdermott

 

[AMarner32]

I don't know that you can call what we've seen so far a slump. I mean, we've seen 1.5 seasons now of this...hit a couple of threes one game, go 0-4 each of the next four games. Defense is sketchy, rebounding is really good for a guard, ball handling is OK (as long as he's a secondary ball handler). That's kind of what he is. Yeah, he can improve some and maybe learn to be more consistent, but he's not going to have the explosive offensive game that Naz does.

For predictions, I think that he has a decision to make. He's either going to be the 7th-8th guy in our rotation or he's going to transfer. I'm not advocating transfer by any means, but I could see why he would consider it.

So you're saying he's Naz Long from last year?

This are Naz's game logs from last year. The far right column is points. Naz was horrendously inconsistent. He got better. The only difference between Naz and Matt to the same point in their careers is that Matt had higher expectations. That's literally the only thing going against Matt. If you actually look at the metrics and advanced numbers, Matt is better right now than Naz was for most of last year.

 

[Spam]

I'll probably get ridiculed for this but whatever. If Dorsey-Walker was the 8th man on this team with the same numbers and skill set as Thomas, would people be supporting him as much as they do Thomas and saying that he's just in a slump and lacks confidence? Or is there a certain characteristic about Thomas that is blinding people from his actual abilities?

People are supporting Thomas because Hoiberg is supporting Thomas. If Hoiberg supported Dorsey-Walker the way he supports Thomas, people would support Dorsey-Walker.

Despite our own suspicions, we tell ourselves that Fred knows what he's doing. And if Fred sees something in a player, there must indeed by something in the player.

 

[cyfanatic]

I'll probably get ridiculed for this but whatever. If Dorsey-Walker was the 8th man on this team with the same numbers and skill set as Thomas, would people be supporting him as much as they do Thomas and saying that he's just in a slump and lacks confidence? Or is there a certain characteristic about Thomas that is blinding people from his actual abilities?

Wasn't Thomas a starter in his first college game? We have seen a lot more of him than we ever saw of D-W. I think that plays into our thoughts...as well as many thinking Thomas was the next "Hoiberg" in style of play.

 

[cycloneG]

Everytime I see a Thomas thread, I always think of this:

[video=youtube;zh_vIlp-300]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh_vIlp-300[/video]

 

[cyclonespiker33]

So you're saying he's Naz Long from last year?

This are Naz's game logs from last year. The far right column is points. Naz was horrendously inconsistent. He got better. The only difference between Naz and Matt to the same point in their careers is that Matt had higher expectations. That's literally the only thing going against Matt. If you actually look at the metrics and advanced numbers, Matt is better right now than Naz was for most of last year.

You can't leave out the games before that because Naz showed something that Matt isn't showing this year

 

[cyfanatic13]

I'll probably get ridiculed for this but whatever. If Dorsey-Walker was the 8th man on this team with the same numbers and skill set as Thomas, would people be supporting him as much as they do Thomas and saying that he's just in a slump and lacks confidence? Or is there a certain characteristic about Thomas that is blinding people from his actual abilities?

And dumbest post of the year goes to....!

 

[CYdTracked]

Maybe Matt just needs a Mark Grace slump buster :biglaugh:

I still think Matt will eventually get it figured out and when the light finally comes on he's going to be a very solid player for this program. We've seen it in flashes already, the kid has a really nice shooting touch when he's on. Maybe he should seek out Jake Sullivan and get some work in with him. I remember seeing Jake that the rec all the time in the offseason just putting up shots non-stop. Jake said he worked really hard after his freshman years trying to get his shot off quicker as once defenses started zeroing in on him he had not choice but to be able to get his shot off quicker else get stuffed. If you view highlights of Jake from his freshman year compared to his last seasons at ISU you can tell just how much quicker he was able to pull the trigger.

 

[CTTB78]

I just feel he has at least one HUGE shot in him this season...one that will be celebrated as being a big-time shot! ....

Exactly. Too much talent and too much good coaching for Matt not to break lose. We'll need him down the stretch.

 

[kingcy]

People are supporting Thomas because Hoiberg is supporting Thomas. If Hoiberg supported Dorsey-Walker the way he supports Thomas, people would support Dorsey-Walker.

Despite our own suspicions, we tell ourselves that Fred knows what he's doing. And if Fred sees something in a player, there must indeed by something in the player.

There was a story a few weeks ago about Thomas staying after practice and asking Fred to help him with his shot. He took 10 shots or something and Fred told him there is nothing wrong with his shot.

 

[jbhtexas]

Needs to drive more, as his mid range and runner game are very good.

Except that he plays in an offensive scheme that doesn't exactly favor the mid-range shot (his strength). Thomas is having to retool his game to fit the system he plays in. That might take a couple of years...

 

[ca4cy]

Except that he plays in an offensive scheme that doesn't exactly favor the mid-range shot (his strength). Thomas is having to retool his game to fit the system he plays in. That might take a couple of years...

He's usually getting 8-10 footers when he drives and I don't think Fred dislikes those shots. Fred will be unhappy if he's pulling up from 18'.

 

[cmjh10]

Except that he plays in an offensive scheme that doesn't exactly favor the mid-range shot (his strength). Thomas is having to retool his game to fit the system he plays in. That might take a couple of years...

Bryce takes mid range jumpers all the time, so does Monte. I dont think that the mid range is a forbidden shot in this offense anymore.

 

[VeloClone]

I don't know that you can call what we've seen so far a slump. I mean, we've seen 1.5 seasons now of this...hit a couple of threes one game, go 0-4 each of the next four games. Defense is sketchy, rebounding is really good for a guard, ball handling is OK (as long as he's a secondary ball handler). That's kind of what he is. Yeah, he can improve some and maybe learn to be more consistent, but he's not going to have the explosive offensive game that Naz does.

For predictions, I think that he has a decision to make. He's either going to be the 7th-8th guy in our rotation or he's going to transfer. I'm not advocating transfer by any means, but I could see why he would consider it.

Matt has gone 0-4 or worse (never worse actually) in a game twice in his entire career; both last year (@ UT and v. WVU). Those occurences were 10 games apart so I'm pretty sure what you are saying isn't even close to true.

The difference between Matt and Naz is probably just the opposite. Naz has no conscience and is comfortable shooting himself out of a slump. If Matt can't get one of his first couple to drop, he will generally stop shooting.

EDIT: Just so you don't think I am being overly critical, I went back and looked at how many games he went in a row attempting a three but not hitting one. His record is a three game stretch this year (Baylor, KU, KSU) when he went 0-1, 0-1, 0-2. Beyond that he has only once even had back to back games where he shot threes and went o-fer in both games (last year: WV 0-2, @ KSU 0-3).

It is beyond me why people feel the need to distort his record to make their points.

 

[Cycl1]

Matt has gone 0-4 or worse (never worse actually) in a game twice in his entire career; both last year (@ UT and v. WVU). Those occurences were 10 games apart so I'm pretty sure what you are saying isn't even close to true.

The difference between Matt and Naz is probably just the opposite. Naz has no conscience and is comfortable shooting himself out of a slump. If Matt can't get one of his first couple to drop, he will generally stop shooting.

He also will generally get sat on the bench.