We could lose three straight games and still be a lock. But getting blown out and losing them all by 20+ would likely move us back to the bubble.
Jerry Palm's update (ISU still needs one more win) LINK
- Thread starter cyclonefan1983
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We could lose three straight games and still be a lock. But getting blown out and losing them all by 20+ would likely move us back to the bubble.
Every year, there is at least one snub that no one can understand. If ISU loses the next three by 30 points apiece, there is a chance that we will be that snub.
When the worst case scenario keeps us out of the tourney, that means we are NOT a lock. 99% chance of getting in != lock.
People who are calling us a "lock" now:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk"]You keep using that word...[/ame]
We ARE a lock. Every expert out there exept Palm thinks we are a LOCK. WE ARE a LOCK. You are the only one that doesn't think we are. You are as parinoid as a pot smoker.
A key part of our top 100 RPI record is that we have played ZERO games against the 76-100 ranked teams. We are 4-6 vs the Top 75.
CSU on the other hand, has a "gaudy" 6 wins against the Top 100 but 4 of them have come against teams 76-100.
Palm has either a bad case of looking for numbers to keep us out, or tunnel vision focusing on too few stats.
Yeah... no. Lock means in all reasonable scenarios we still get in. Losing the last 2 and the first in the tourney, while not ideal, is still a reasonable scenario. Losing those same games all by huge margins=not a reasonable scenario. An asteroid could fall into waco, ending the city and their season but given that isnt a reasonable scenario, they are a lock.
Agreed. Hell, its part of the problem in taking the rpi and breaking it into arbitrary groups and making decisions based on those overall groups. Better to just look at the overall RPI number as that tells you a lot more about a team than 'this many wins in this group, this many in another'
This makes me a little nervous:
Iowa State picked up its first away-from-home win of any significance when it completed the season sweep of Kansas State. The Cyclones now have four top 100 RPI wins (despite a gaudy 11-5 conference record), and should be safe if they can get one more. Teams with just four top 100 wins have received 13 at-large bids in the last 18 years, but that's out of 250 teams.
Iowa State picked up its first away-from-home win of any significance when it completed the season sweep of Kansas State. The Cyclones now have four top 100 RPI wins (despite a gaudy 11-5 conference record), and should be safe if they can get one more. Teams with just four top 100 wins have received 13 at-large bids in the last 18 years, but that's out of 250 teams.
So JPalms method is 6-7 Top 100 wins early and you can stink it up at the end? I thought the committee would see through that philosophy. What happens if a team gets a major injury or someone gets suspended? Do you pretend they were as good as they were two months ago?
Maybe we should play Creighton and Witchita State in Ames.
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Since he has historical reasons for saying we aren't a lock, Im not going to blast him for saying it.....its just "interesting" to say the least that every single other prognosticator disagrees with him. One thing that is comforting is that Palm's track record isn't anywhere near the top of bracketologists.
Part of the problem with arbitrary groups (making an arbitrary cutoff at 100).
Go down to 125 and you add 5 more wins for ISU.
Lets look at a bubble team like northwestern as an example to see how picking that arbitrary 100 (vs going to another arbitrary number like 125) changes things. They have 6 wins vs the top 100 group (7 vs 125). The thing is though, theyve gone 6-11 vs the top 100 (.35) , we've gone 4-6 (.4). Go to 125 in that same comparison and we're 9-7 (.56) and theyre 7-11 (.38). Look at just the top 50 and we've got a better record as well.
Additionally, if you want to dig into the top 100, in 50-100, we both have 2 losses, but theirs average 20 spots lower.
No big deal. This team still has a chance for at least 2 more wins against the top 100. Hopefully, fools like Palm will just give them added incentive.
Iowa also has a lot of RPI top 100 wins. Why aren't they being considered? Because they didn't take care of the bottom feeders and middle league teams. We (ISU) have taken care of all of the lower tier and at least split with the middle teams. Then we beat KU and K-State twice that looks very good. Thats why we will make the NCAA tournament even if we lose out (which I doubt).
No hes not, I dont think we are a LOCK. Im confident we are in, but things CAN still happen which would take away at large spots. A lock would mean there is no scenario that could play out where we don't get in, and that most defiantly is not the case. What happens if Wake Forest, Texas AM, Rutgers, Illinois, Drake and Auburn all win their conference tourney's, and ISU loses their next 3 by a combined 75 points?
Yeah it probably WONT happen, but it can.
In reality though most teams in the past with that kind of resume usually are from mid-majors. The Big 12 this year is very odd. 3 top 15 teams, 3 teams that hover around the 25-40 range, and then the other 4.