Of course they havent made any indication they are going to leave because right now it would be silly. I was specifically talking about when the contract is up and as it gets closer and closer conferences could give them very tempting offers. Say Texas decided to join the PAC12 or Oklahoma the SEC, that automatically makes those conferences secure and then the big10 picks up a texas school. The pac12 doesnt have a team that you can take away and the conference is over and the big12 has two thats why they are more stable.
How stable is Big 12?
- Thread starter Jiub
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I think the Big 12 should just go BIG and let the SEC and Big Ten know that it's a force to be recon with. I'd offer a near full merger with the Pac 12. Take all but two schools (Utah and Colorado) and go to 20. Our tv partners have to pony up for it and we've solidified P5 membership for all our original Big 12 members. That would be a beast of a conference. I imagine you would go mini NFL with 4 divisions of 5. If the tv guys have to give us more money for schools like Cincinnati and Memphis why mess around with that and just add all the major schools from the Pac and then they make more, we make more and everybody wins. (except Utah and Colorado).
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
Yes, those "could" happen. But it doesn't make sense based on anything that is going on. Yes, there are fans that want this. Media talks about it. But it doesn't make sense. The money that OU is making in the Big 12 is the same ballpark with what they would make in the SEC. Plus they are one of the top dogs in the Big 12. They would not be in the SEC (see Nebraska - Big 10). They would also lose the rivalry with OSU and UT. And SEC would not take both OU and OSU.
As for Texas, it makes even less sense. They are the top dog. They are making more money than any team in college right now. Pac 12 is bleeding. Why does Texas want to go to a conference where they have to share everything and make less money? The reason why they don't have two teams that you can take away and the conference is "over" is because they don't have any teams that demand the money that the other conferences do. Texas knows this and that is why they didn't go there in the first place. They understand that they will make less money in the Pac 12 then they will make in the Big 12 with their own network.
And remember, it is the TV networks that would have to give them the tempting offers, not the conferences. ESPN and Fox want to keep the Big 12 together. Everything they have in their contract shows this. They will get higher ratings with Texas playing OU, OSU, TCU, Baylor and Tech (and now probably Houston). And for them it is ratings (eyeballs) that matter, not TV sets like the conference networks because ABC and Fox still have the Tier 1 games over the air.
The media and fans like to talk about all of these scenarios about Texas and Oklahoma, but they don't make sense when you start looking at them logically.
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
It just takes Texas or Oklahoma (and subsequently OSU with them) to leave and this whole conference comes tumbling down.
What makes you think Texas and Oklahoma would want to stay if SEC comes knocking? Why wouldnt they jump ship? No one will take them seriously on the national stage if they dont play in the SEC.
What makes you think Texas and Oklahoma would want to stay if SEC comes knocking? Why wouldnt they jump ship? No one will take them seriously on the national stage if they dont play in the SEC.
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
That is ridiculous. OU just made the playoff. They were two wins away from a National title. They have won 9 of 17 Big 12 titles. That gives them a great shot at a playoff EVERY year. They won't get those odds in SEC with Ala, LSU, Auburn, etc. They are one of two alpha dogs in this conference. They won't get that in the SEC. The money difference is small.
As for Texas, they are making more money than any school. They have full control over their network. They aren't giving it up.
Stop listening to bias SEC, Hawkeye or Big Tem media. They have an agenda and try to mislead you into thinking that UT and OU can't wait to get out. It is all based on opinion that has no basis in fact.
Because they wouldn't be the top dogs in the SEC and their path to the playoff just got harder.
Alabama and Florida won't put up with Texas' BS.
OU just made the playoff in the Big 12, so yes, they were taken seriously in the Big 12.
I seem to remember a rumor of a joint TV deal with the PAC right before the **** started hitting the fan. Set up a fence at the Mississippi River and control all of the major college football content in the west.
Then those pricks tried to kill our conference with the PAC 16 overreach.
But why by 4? Why not just add 2 schools now, wait the 8-10 years and then get 2 from the Pac 12 then? Who's to say the SEC/Big 10 are going to 16 members in that time-frame?
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
CMW seems certain in Monday Musing if GOR doesnt pass Big 12 goes bye bye.
So the league is inherently unstable if the GOR is up for question or debate.
So the league is inherently unstable if the GOR is up for question or debate.
I think if you really want to know how stable or unstable the situation is, you need to go outside the Cyclone fan base to get your feedback. There is bias on this board, as there would be with any fan base with passion. We tend to hang on the things that make us feel better. I have gone to the Oklahoma Land Thieves board over the past years to get a gauge from the team that has the most opposite viewpoint (rather than somewhat desperately clinging to the B12, they are in the position of being able to do what they want as one of the big brands).
I'm linking the most recent thread, which is over 120 pages. It is part of a series of threads that probably span over 1,000 pages and many years. But this one started June 1st of this year, so has the most relevant current speculation. And obviously, this is simply speculation from their viewpoint, as no one there has any more information than the posters on this board.
There are some names thrown around for expansion. But the underlying sense is that Oklahoma will not sign an extension and is simply waiting out the current GOR before moving on. The expansion teams simply allow the current members to make some money over the remaining term of the television deal in place.
http://www.landthieves.com/board/sh...e-Hospice-amp-Realignment-Speculation/page121
I'm linking the most recent thread, which is over 120 pages. It is part of a series of threads that probably span over 1,000 pages and many years. But this one started June 1st of this year, so has the most relevant current speculation. And obviously, this is simply speculation from their viewpoint, as no one there has any more information than the posters on this board.
There are some names thrown around for expansion. But the underlying sense is that Oklahoma will not sign an extension and is simply waiting out the current GOR before moving on. The expansion teams simply allow the current members to make some money over the remaining term of the television deal in place.
http://www.landthieves.com/board/sh...e-Hospice-amp-Realignment-Speculation/page121
Interesting take from an Arkansas fan on the OU board. Say he thinks the Big 12 is gauging interest and trying to lure the big fish. To do so they add Houston and CSU/Cincy type teams with them agreeing to less from the current $25 mil/yr in TV revenue, then using the savings to pay Arkansas/Nebraska to join the Big 12. I dont know that I agree 100% but I like the idea. Add Houston and Cincy as they both want in, but limit them to more then they are currently making but a discount to what current members are making, and then dangle the carrots to current P5 members! (AZ/ASU, UCLA/USC, Ark/Mizzu?) Thoughts?
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
And that is based on fans opinions, not what the University is actually wanting or planning.
As I indicated when I wrote this:
"And obviously, this is simply speculation from their viewpoint, as no one there has any more information than the posters on this board."
Who cares as long as the checks keep rolling in. GOR's probably won't mean crap in a couple years when teams start breaking them anyway, or entire conferences break them.
How do you know what OU administrators are thinking.
The Big12 is only as stable as the length of our GOR- through 2024/25. Thats not a bad deal.
But it also happens to match when the Big10 TV contracts will next be up for renewal. The Big10 could very well be flush with cash and their TV partner willing to pay a ton more money if the Big10 can add a couple P5 teams.
The SEC has their network, but ratings drives advertising revenue, so they would love to add an OU, OSU, KU or Texas. OU and OSU don't have a Longhorn Network, SEC money would be very attractive. Sure competition is tougher, but OU knows they have a good program and being in the SEC opens a whole new recruiting territory for them.
If OU goes, Texas will be soon the follow. They would have a tough time making the playoff without OU and OSU.
You also seem to look at the Longhorn Network as a $15M annuity for perpituity. It only runs until 2031. In business money talks. If the Longhorn isn't highly profitable for ESPN in the next 3-5 years , I am sure ESPN will offer Texas a buyout. Texas takes a lumpsum buyout and moves on to the Conference offering the best deal.
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Thinking Nebby would leave the B1G now that they're finally in line for a full share and the gargantuan TV deal the B1G has put together for the next 6 years is fantasy.
Thus why I stated Ark/Mizzu in my P5 list below that. The Nebby part was from the OU fans perspective. HUCK the FUSKERS, I dont want them back!