Hawks were -2 turnovers. Won't win if that's the case this Saturday either. Hawks won't be at a disadvantage at Punter like they were in '19. That's also a pretty big factor in a game like this.My prediction for Saturday in IC
Penn State 17-12 Iowa (Oct 12, 2019) Game Recap - ESPN
Expert recap and game analysis of the Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Iowa Hawkeyes NCAAF game from October 12, 2019 on ESPN.www.espn.com
A repeat of the 2019 game. Iowa runs the ball better than the 2019 game (70 yards, 2.3/carry) and passes worse. Stanley is far greater than Petras and ISM and Smith are far better than what Iowa has right now
How far can Iowa go?
- Thread starter besserheimerphat
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I think could be a low scoring game like that and I see a similarity in that I think if PSU is going to win it has to win the TO battle like it did that game 2-0. But I don't trust Clifford to not turn the ball over against that Iowa defense and I don't think the PSU defensive front is as good as it was that year.My prediction for Saturday in IC
Penn State 17-12 Iowa (Oct 12, 2019) Game Recap - ESPN
Expert recap and game analysis of the Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Iowa Hawkeyes NCAAF game from October 12, 2019 on ESPN.
A repeat of the 2019 game. Iowa runs the ball better than the 2019 game (70 yards, 2.3/carry) and passes worse. Stanley is far greater than Petras and ISM and Smith are far better than what Iowa has right now
Clifford seems to have turned a corner. He's got a 70+ QBR this year, even after playing Auburn and Wisconsin's defenses. His ceiling isn't as high as Brock can go. But his floor is SOO MUCH HIGHER!! Since the Iowa game in 2020. He's been quite good. 16 TD's to 4 picks. Playing against teams like Michigan, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Auburn and Indiana.
I don't take offense but it's playing KU doesn't help with eyeballs.
Iowa State had great viewership in the Alamo (second most non playoffs) and Fiesta (more than OU and FL in the Cotton). Playing in big bowl games will help.
Hopefully not on the punting but they have a good punter too. Special teams can have 1 breakdown though and could be the game decider as it was for Iowa in 2009. This is a game where the margins will be huge.
Every coach teaches their defensive line to get their hands up. That's not an "Iowa philosophy." Not all tipped passes are tipped by defensive linemen, or even defensive players at all. Are you suggesting Parker calls a "have the ball bounce off the WR to our safety" play? Or a "have our DE deflect the ball to our cornerback" play? That's what it sounds like you are saying.
Acknowledging the fact that tipped passes are unpredictable does not detract from the fact that Iowa has a good secondary. Iowa has a good secondary. They would have a ton of INTs even if every tipped pass hit the ground. Because they are good. Iowa's defense is good regardless of the fact that they seem to catch some breaks. Every team has an expected range of performance. Iowa's range is higher than most on defense and secial teams. This year both of those units are playing at the high end of that range. That's also an aspect of luck.
When Iowa catches breaks, as they are this season, they are playoff contenders. When their luck is "even," they are an 8-9 win team. When they have bad luck, they are a 6-7 win team. That's a hell of a program. It will be interesting to see if it can be maintained once Ferentz hangs it up. Too bad the fanbase is such a bunch of insecure *******.
The "luck" I'm talking about is more than just turnovers. It's also things like having great special teams synch up with great defense, so your traditionally okay offense doesn't limit the team. Not suffering injuries. Not getting targeting calls (if you don't think those are random, you don't watch enough football).
I’m sure most teams talk about it but if you watch Iowa it’s a clear emphasis. If you can’t get to the quarterback stop your rush and get your hands up. Particularly emphasized when you’re playing short quarterbacks like Purdy and Taulia. Certainly don’t expect every tipped pass to be an interception but the odds go up exponentially. I would guess Iowa is consistently a leader in tipped passes as well.
Im not naïve to think there hasn’t been some breaks for sure this year. But they’ve made more breaks for themselves than usual as well. Most every team in any sport will tell you their great seasons had a some luck. I’d say the biggest factor in luck is always health.
I’m not sure I agree with you on having great special teams and defense being complementary is luck though. Maybe there’s a point there you’re trying to make that I missing.
It appears we agree on targeting. Easily the most frustrating and potentially game changing penalty in the game. The maddening part is it doesn’t seem to be uniform from one game to the next.
can they or will they? If they win this week they CAN be 12-0 and playing for a spot in the CFP, hell, even at 11-1 that's probably the case. But I also think Ohio St is the team to beat still and would be a pretty tough task at the end of the season. My actual prediction would be more like 10-2, win the West, lose to Ohio St, and go to the Rose Bowl (hopefully).
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may be right. Probably just history making me give them more credit than they deserve.
If Iowa wins Saturday I'm not sure they can lose a game this regular season even if they tried to
Something like that. They will beat PSU then lose at WI or NE in a game where nothing goes right.
Yeah I don't know either. The West this year is worse than 2015 and I believe Iowa is better this year than they were in 2015.
If ever there were a year that Iowa could make the playoffs this is the year for it. I, and apparently most of the experts, think they have a pretty damn good shot at it.
To answer your question, I think a B10 Championship is a realistic goal at this point. I would be disappointed if they aren’t competing for a Big Ten title and then maybe more. They’ve put themselves in position to be in that conversation and I’m enjoying the ride.
Regarding all of the “luck” talk surrounding the Iowa defense. Any player or coach will tell you that you make your own luck. That’s where film study, coaching, fundamentals, and effort come into the equation. When you have 11 starters who consistently do their job good things tend to happen. It’s what Phil Parker is a genius at. On the surface it may appear to be luck, but simply chalking it up to “oh they are just lucky” is incredibly dumb.