Expectations for 2018-2019

[Sigmapolis]

Yes. There were a number of people who wanted Mooney regardless of the fit with the team. Some thought it was realistic to come to ISU as a sixth man or protection if NWB was still injured. A minority thought he'd even start over NWB or Shayok (assuming LW didn't stay in the draft).
Mooney is talented and found a good spot to produce at TT but I never thought it was a realistic option for ISU next year considering the current roster. Hard for Prohm to bring in a Grad Transfer and give them immediate major minutes over the current back court who have been on campus for 2+ years. Potential chemistry nightmare could have derailed the season before it started in my opinion.

I always thought Mooney was insurance for LW going pro and/or Nick not being healthy. Obviously, Lindell is back, and we hope for the best with Nick.

If those two are 100% and playing well together, the marginal utility from and playing time for a guy like Mooney was going to be rather minimal for both sides.

Here is how the two of them project out for next year...

Mooney = 32 MPG, 111 ORTG, 24% usage, 16.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 APG
Nick = 34 MPG, 116 ORTG, 19% usage, 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.1 APG

A healthy Nick playing like he did when healthy and manning the PG slot last year is likely a better player, at least to me, from what I have seen.

Nick is not quite the pure scorer, but he is the more efficient player, probably more versatile on defense (Nick is 2" taller and probably longer, plus used to playing against P6 players his entire career), and sucks down a TON of rebounds and dishes out a lot of assists. We probably have all the back court scoring we are going to need between Wigginton (who legitimately could lead the Big 12 in scoring next season), Shayok, and Horton-Tucker.

We need a proven PG more than a "get buckets" guy, and Nick is one.

Mooney would have been a nice replacement to Donovan Jackson as a shooter (though he is only a career 36% from three, similar to Shayok, while Jackson was a career 42%), though, and I enjoyed the "three combo guards" thing we had going last season with NWB, LW, and Donovan for our successful run in the middle of the season.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I always thought Mooney was insurance for LW going pro and/or Nick not being healthy. Obviously, Lindell is back, and we hope for the best with Nick.

If those two are 100% and playing well together, the marginal utility from and playing time for a guy like Mooney was going to be rather minimal for both sides.

Here is how the two of them project out for next year...

Mooney = 32 MPG, 111 ORTG, 24% usage, 16.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 APG
Nick = 34 MPG, 116 ORTG, 19% usage, 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.1 APG

A healthy Nick playing like he did when healthy and manning the PG slot last year is likely a better player, at least to me, from what I have seen.

Nick is not quite the pure scorer, but he is the more efficient player, probably more versatile on defense (Nick is 2" taller and probably longer, plus used to playing against P6 players his entire career), and sucks down a TON of rebounds and dishes out a lot of assists. We probably have all the back court scoring we are going to need between Wigginton (who legitimately could lead the Big 12 in scoring next season), Shayok, and Horton-Tucker.

We need a proven PG more than a "get buckets" guy, and Nick is one.

Mooney would have been a nice replacement to Donovan Jackson as a shooter (though he is only a career 36% from three, similar to Shayok, while Jackson was a career 42%), though, and I enjoyed the "three combo guards" thing we had going last season with NWB, LW, and Donovan for our successful run in the middle of the season.

The beautiful thing for Nick is that he won't need to be a primary scorer this year, as he just never seemed comfortable in that role (though I think he could do it).

 

[Sigmapolis]

The beautiful thing for Nick is that he won't need to be a primary scorer this year, as he just never seemed comfortable in that role (though I think he could do it).

If I had to guess, he is 4th in scoring next year after LW, Lard, and Shayok. I could even see him being 5th in Horton-Tucker earns a starting spot.

And that would be fine. He just needs to do everything else well.

 

[Cyclonepride]

If I had to guess, he is 4th in scoring next year after LW, Lard, and Shayok. I could even see him being 5th in Horton-Tucker earns a starting spot.

And that would be fine. He just needs to do everything else well.

10-5-5 would be a fantastic line for him

 

[Sigmapolis]

10-5-5 would be a fantastic line for him

That site (and yes, I know I use it a lot, but it is amusing and I think a good tool towards a fair benchmark for players and teams) has him at...

13.8 PPG
5.2 RPG
5.1 APG

...playing 33.6 MPG.

So his per 40 would be...

16.4 P per 40
6.2 R per 40
6.1 A per 40

Last season, from the App State game (when he took over at PG full-time) through the game in Austin (which, I think, was his last healthy game) he was...

12.9 P per 40
7.9 R per 40
8.2 A per 40

...so everything above is actually projecting a *decline* from peak Nick.

If he is truly healthy, I think he (and the team) would have some upside risk.

 

[Cyclonepride]

That site (and yes, I know I use it a lot, but it is amusing and I think a good tool towards a fair benchmark for players and teams) has him at...

13.8 PPG
5.2 RPG
5.1 APG

...playing 33.6 MPG.

So his per 40 would be...

16.4 P per 40
6.2 R per 40
6.1 A per 40

Last season, from the App State game (when he took over at PG full-time) through the game in Austin (which, I think, was his last healthy game) he was...

12.9 P per 40
7.9 R per 40
8.2 A per 40

...so everything above is actually projecting a *decline* from peak Nick.

If he is truly healthy, I think he (and the team) would have some upside risk.

I think any downside is from getting less minutes to keep him healthy. We need a healthy Nick for 28 minutes more than anything that we’d get beyond that.

 

[rochclone]

Where are all the misinformed posters who were begging for Matt Mooney and said he undoubtedly would start over Babb??? Projected to lead the conference in assists and a top 8 WAR in the conference.

Mooney is a stud and would have been a top 3 scorer on our team.

 

[Hayes30]

Mooney is a stud and would have been a top 3 scorer on our team.

I agree. He would have been the guy that really put this team over the top IMO.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I agree. He would have been the guy that really put this team over the top IMO.

Who does he kick out of the rotation, though?

While we are doing this theoretical, chalkboard exercise.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Mooney is a stud and would have been a top 3 scorer on our team.

I agree he is a stud. So is Nick Babb. You and others were adamant he would have started over Babb and that simply is not true.

 

[rochclone]

I agree he is a stud. So is Nick Babb. You and others were adamant he would have started over Babb and that simply is not true.

Mooney would have started on all but a handful of elite teams in this country. If you believe he wouldn't have started then you must believe we are a Top 15 squad. I sure hope we live up to your expectations. I would be pleasantly surprised to say the least to be a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament and finish in the Sweet 16 with this roster.

 

[rochclone]

Jamie Dixon flipped TCU so fast it's actually really impressive.

Dixon is a top 20 head coach. I don't like his antics. But he has done an amazing job at TCU and to see how far Pitt fell without him further validates that point.

 

[madguy30]

Also - At Ole Miss in January.

The SEC/Big 12 Challenge thankfully hasn't had any bearing on NCAA tourney prospects but it would be nice for ISU to do well in that game...they've been outclassed the last three seasons and it can't just be because of how tough the Big 12 is...all teams involved have to take a break in the conference season.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Mooney would have started on all but a handful of elite teams in this country. If you believe he wouldn't have started then you must believe we are a Top 15 squad. I sure hope we live up to your expectations. I would be pleasantly surprised to say the least to be a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament and finish in the Sweet 16 with this roster.

You pinpointed NWB as the guy he would start over. Nick has been in the program for 4 years and is our longest tenured veteran and point guard. Sorry, Mooney would not have walked in and started over him. Are we capable of being a top 15 team? Sure, if everything falls in place.

 

[rochclone]

You pinpointed NWB as the guy he would start over. Nick has been in the program for 4 years and is our longest tenured veteran and point guard. Sorry, Mooney would not have walked in and started over him. Are we capable of being a top 15 team? Sure, if everything falls in place.

Not sure Nick will play a ton of pg this year as CSP will have to allow LW show that he can effectively run the pg position for the next level. I think Nick is a nice player that can be effective attacking the rim. This team has a lot of those players. They need a wing shooter and Nick has not shown that ability consistently in his college career as a 31% 3 pt shooter. Some are confident that LW, Shayok and THT can collectively keep the defense honest. I'm cautiously optimistic.

In the end it didn't work out with Mooney as the staff never offered (apparently). But anyone that has seen Mooney play in person knows that he will be a terrific player for Texas Tech and likely a 2nd team All-Big 12 type player.

We have to re-establish the program this year as a Top 25 team in order to sustain the momentum we gained from 2012-17. My contention has always been that Mooney would have secured that type of outcome. I don't hate Nick. I just think this team has weaknesses that could have been better addressed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Not sure Nick will play a ton of pg this year as CSP will have to allow LW show that he can effectively run the pg position for the next level. I think Nick is a nice player that can be effective attacking the rim. This team has a lot of those players. They need a wing shooter and Nick has not shown that ability consistently in his college career as a 31% 3 pt shooter. Some are confident that LW, Shayok and THT can collectively keep the defense honest. I'm cautiously optimistic.

In the end it didn't work out with Mooney as the staff never offered (apparently). But anyone that has seen Mooney play in person knows that he will be a terrific player for Texas Tech and likely a 2nd team All-Big 12 type player.

We have to re-establish the program this year as a Top 25 team in order to sustain the momentum we gained from 2012-17. My contention has always been that Mooney would have secured that type of outcome. I don't hate Nick. I just think this team has weaknesses that could have been better addressed.

You said it yourself — NWB isn’t the scoring or shooting threat where taking the ball out his hand is an improvement. He is a distributor. He’s got the best known handle and court vision of anybody returning on the roster.

LW isn’t going to play PG for very long stretches if he’s a turnover machine again and Nick is clearly better at it. He was last season. Prohm will give him the chance, but Prohm needs to win, and Nick very likely will be that guy.

 

[acgclone]

That site (and yes, I know I use it a lot, but it is amusing and I think a good tool towards a fair benchmark for players and teams) has him at...

13.8 PPG
5.2 RPG
5.1 APG

...playing 33.6 MPG.

So his per 40 would be...

16.4 P per 40
6.2 R per 40
6.1 A per 40

Last season, from the App State game (when he took over at PG full-time) through the game in Austin (which, I think, was his last healthy game) he was...

12.9 P per 40
7.9 R per 40
8.2 A per 40

...so everything above is actually projecting a *decline* from peak Nick.

If he is truly healthy, I think he (and the team) would have some upside risk.

I think the “decline” may be a good thing for Nick and the team.

Hopefully Wigginton will take some of the ball handling and scoring pressure off Nick.

THT and Shayok can certainly help with that as well.

 

[Cyclonepride]

If I had to guess, Lindell and Nick will split time at the point, with both obviously getting minutes at the two (Nick could see minutes at the 3 as well). I'd guess we'll see Lindell with 36+ minutes overall, and Nick at 30 or under to keep him healthy. Nick slots best at the point for his skill set, and Lindell will get enough minutes to show that he effective there, but can pad his overall stats at the 2.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Not sure Nick will play a ton of pg this year as CSP will have to allow LW show that he can effectively run the pg position for the next level. I think Nick is a nice player that can be effective attacking the rim. This team has a lot of those players. They need a wing shooter and Nick has not shown that ability consistently in his college career as a 31% 3 pt shooter. Some are confident that LW, Shayok and THT can collectively keep the defense honest. I'm cautiously optimistic.

In the end it didn't work out with Mooney as the staff never offered (apparently). But anyone that has seen Mooney play in person knows that he will be a terrific player for Texas Tech and likely a 2nd team All-Big 12 type player.

We have to re-establish the program this year as a Top 25 team in order to sustain the momentum we gained from 2012-17. My contention has always been that Mooney would have secured that type of outcome. I don't hate Nick. I just think this team has weaknesses that could have been better addressed.

Prohm will put the team in the best position to win. He isn't going to slide Wigginton over to PG just so he can showcase his ability as a PG for NBA scouts. The player best suited for the position will get the lions share of the minutes. Clearly Prohm felt NWB running the point gave us the best chance to win last year. I don't expect much to change this upcoming season.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Prohm will put the team in the best position to win. He isn't going to slide Wigginton over to PG just so he can showcase his ability as a PG for NBA scouts. The player best suited for the position will get the lions share of the minutes. Clearly Prohm felt NWB running the point gave us the best chance to win last year. I don't expect much to change this upcoming season.

That assumes LW hasn't refined his PG skills and be the best option for the team at the PG. Prohm sold ISU to Lindell with the idea of helping him develop his PG skills to get him into the NBA and I would assume CSP is committed to getting him to that level and showing it as soon as he is ready. Wigginton is going to want to show that is progressing this year for his pro stock (a major reason he returned for a year which CSP is aware of) and I expect him to get a long look at the position this year, especially because it won't cut into NWB minutes if he slides to a combo guard role (and less stress on his body).