Expectations for 2018-2019
- Thread starter CloneGuy8
- Start date
http://barttorvik.com/allrosters19.php?s=18&conlimit=B12&type=All&yvalue=All
Projected stats for conference season next year...
Top 15 "WAR"
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5.4 Dedric Lawson
5.0 Dean Wade
4.8 Udoka Azubuike
4.8 Jaylen Fisher
4.1 Lagerald Vick
4.0 Lindell Wigginton
4.0 Esa Ahmad
3.9 Nick Weiler-Babb
3.9 Matt Mooney
3.8 Charlie Moore
3.7 Sagaba Konate
3.6 Barry Brown Jr.
3.6 Michael Weathers
3.5 James Bolden
3.5 Cameron Lard
Top 15 scoring
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19.7 Michael Weathers
17.5 Dedric Lawson
16.9 Lindell Wigginton
16.6 Dean Wade
16.0 Matt Mooney
15.9 Esa Ahmad
15.9 Christian James
15.7 Jaylen Fisher
15.3 Barry Brown Jr.
15.0 Aaron Calixte
14.8 Lagerald Vick
14.6 Udoka Azubuike
14.4 Sagaba Konate
14.2 Mario Kegler
14.2 Dylan Osetkowski
Top 15 rebounds
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8.1 Udoka Azubuike
8.0 Sagaba Konate
7.8 Dedric Lawson
7.8 Cameron Lard
7.5 Dean Wade
7.2 Dylan Osetkowski
7.0 Esa Ahmad
6.8 Jamuni McNeace
6.4 Mario Kegler
6.2 Yuat Alok
6.2 Cameron McGriff
6.1 Solomon Young
6.0 Brady Manek
5.9 Mark Vital
5.7 Jarrett Culver
Top 15 assists
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5.1 Nick Weiler-Babb
5.1 Jaylen Fisher
4.8 Michael Weathers
4.7 Alex Robinson
3.9 Charlie Moore
3.4 Lindell Wigginton
3.4 Matt Coleman
3.1 Barry Brown Jr.
3.1 Kamau Stokes
2.8 Makai Mason
2.8 Jake Lindsey
2.6 Kerwin Roach II
2.4 Dedric Lawson
2.4 Dean Wade
2.4 Esa Ahmad
In a baseball context, Wins Above Replacement. It is the number of games this player gets you over 162 games versus a AAA replacement-level player.
The exact definition of the concept here for basketball is more about points per game...
There's an interesting offensive player stat out there called PORPAG, which is an acronym for "Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game." PORPAG was created by MSU fans KJ and Spartan Dan back in 2009, and the basic idea is to estimate how many more points per game a player creates than a hypothetical "replacement player" would. The basic formula for PORPAG is:
(OffRtg – 88) * %Poss * Min% *65
The 88 is the presumed O-rating of the replacement player, and the 65 at the end is the constant for possessions in a game. These days we'd probably want to use something more like 68 to account the tempo-frenzy unleashed by the 30-second shot clock. Arguably, we could also increase the O-rating of the replacement player to account for increased average efficiency since 2009, but I'm leaving it at 88 because the Chinese consider 8 to be a very lucky number and my mom was born on August 8th.
I was making an analogy this is an "above replacement" metric.
Where are all the misinformed posters who were begging for Matt Mooney and said he undoubtedly would start over Babb??? Projected to lead the conference in assists and a top 8 WAR in the conference.
May have been slighted in the rebound category as well (if he's healthy). He was truly a stat sheet stuffer.
Not to mention he has been in the program longer than any other player on our roster and is a legacy recruit. To think Mooney would have walked in and started over him was absurd. I'd wager Prohm told him as much and that's why he moved on.
At most, I would think that he was told there was no guarantees. Just looking at the roster, that would certainly have been a risk as a transfer.
I love Nick and hope he is 100% this season, and he was playing great last year before injury, but he was playing almost 40 minutes per night. It is easier to rack up points, rebound, and assist volumes when you play more minutes like he was doing.
The nerds with their calculators project Nick and Mooney to be rather close to each other next season. Both are certainly at least rotational players on good teams, though. If Prohm is as honest and straight as everybody says he is, I am sure there is no way he could have guaranteed a starting gig for Mooney given what we had.
Given how depleted Tech was, I am sure they could. They probably start something like these five, looking across their roster quickly...
Mooney
Culver
Francis
Odiase
Owens
...and that is not going to be a half-bad Big 12 team. Heck, a good one. That is starting four seniors, with only Culver coming back as a sophomore.
Their lineup was screaming for an experienced PG, and they found one.
Are the projected minutes the percentage of minutes?
If barttorvik's ORtg is comparable to KenPom (and based on his 2018 numbers, it should be), Wigginton projected at ORtg 110 on 25% usage is pretty close to Kane's numbers when he was here. I don't put a ton of stock in player-level projections, but that's interesting at least.
Yes, an "80" is 80% of minutes, so Wigginton would play 32 per night.
They project LW to play 81% of minutes with a 25% usage and an ORTG of 110.
DeAndre Kane played 84.6% of minutes with 26.8% usage and an ORTG of 110.4.
You are right that is very similar -- Kane just being a *little* higher volume.
It would be awesome to see LW go 17,6,3.5 next year. I think if he can put up that line consistently and the team stays healthy I think we exceed Rothstein’s expectations. But that’s a big if and we somewhat experienced the short end of the injury stick last year.
Scrolling through this list I see Esa Ahmad’s name under every league leaders board. Man, that would’ve been an awesome get (stretch). He’s going to be in some BXII POTY talks. Bullish on WVU.
Did people really want Mooney? We finally have a grad transfer free squad it’s what everyone has always wanted right?
I think people just want the best players possible - sit out or grad transfers included if needed.
I've tried to update my schedule list, but missed official word on NDSU, SU and EIU. Are those in the order of appearance in your update?
A post prior to yours by @scottwv says Eastern Illinois game is Dec. 21. If that's correct, I'm not sure where it'd fall related to Iowa and Drake games, which I think would come near or even before that.
Just asking for accuracy of my record-keeping.
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The above was order of recollection, not schedule order. I do not have dates.
Thanks. Some dates I have are only approximations ... I know Maui, B12/SEC and probably the season opener. I might be a week off for CyHawk and Big 4.
Yes. There were a number of people who wanted Mooney regardless of the fit with the team. Some thought it was realistic to come to ISU as a sixth man or protection if NWB was still injured. A minority thought he'd even start over NWB or Shayok (assuming LW didn't stay in the draft).
Mooney is talented and found a good spot to produce at TT but I never thought it was a realistic option for ISU next year considering the current roster. Hard for Prohm to bring in a Grad Transfer and give them immediate major minutes over the current back court who have been on campus for 2+ years. Potential chemistry nightmare could have derailed the season before it started in my opinion.