Expectations for 2018-2019
- Thread starter CloneGuy8
- Start date
If I had to guess at the start of the year...
Weiler-Babb
Wigginton
Shayok
Talley
Lard
THT might push for one of the guard spots and would certainly have one if there is ever an injury, even if I hope Nick is 100% for his senior year.
Talley is just a more versatile player than Young.
Yeah, I've noted it elsewhere, but I'd like to see Lard get 25 full tilt minutes at the 5, with Solomon giving 15 full tilt minutes at the 5 and 10 more at the 4. That would give us a faster, more versatile lineup for 3/4 of the game.
Young's plus/minus is much better than Talley's.
Plus/minus ranking of returning players
Lard
Babb
Young
Wigginton
Talley
Long
Lewis
There's a decent size gap between Wigginton and Talley. Long and Lewis are both in the negative.
Link me? Not that I do not believe you, but I am looking here...
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa-state/2018.html
I am using conference only to adjust for the appropriateness of competition.
Lewis is slightly positive now.
That would argue keeping the same starting lineup when we were healthy and winning a few games, just putting Shayok in for Jackson.
I do not think they have that for conference-only. I assume this, then?
That basically says we have two good two-way players (Lard and NWB) and then two guys who are really good on one side (Wigginton on offense, Solomon on defense/rebounding), and then the rest are kind of fringe contributors after that down the rest of the list.
Correct.
Shayok's career plus/minus is 6.0 which puts him in the Lard/Babb category.
I think Wigginton, Lard and Shayok can be one of the best trio's in the conference with some fantastic role players in Jacobsen, Weiler-Babb, Young and Lewis.
I think 5th or 6th is very reasonable in the conference and no need to worry about bubble talk.
I think 5th or 6th is very reasonable in the conference and no need to worry about bubble talk.
Well, while we are talking about future contributors...
Going through our potential returners (to fill out your list)...
6.1 Lard
6.0 NWB
6.0 Shayok
4.8 Jacobson
3.6 Young
2.6 Wigginton
0.7 Talley
*this season for ISU guys, career for transfers
The sum of those seven = 29.8
The sum of our top seven this season = 21.2
From a metrics standpoint we should be better next season. It's going to come down to chemistry and injuries.
I decided to check that 29.8 relative to some Big 12 teams this year.
I did not do them all. Too lazy. But here are the top seven guys for...
KU = 55.6
TCU = 46.6
KSU = 35.8
And us last year, during the "Year of the Four Seniors" that we had...
ISU = 49.8
If Shayok doesn't start, my expectations will drop by 4-5 wins.
The chemistry has to have a huge head start on last year, simply because we had 3 of 10 players that had ever been on the court (4 in practice) vs 7 (9 in practice) next year.
IMO, the biggest question mark next year is how do these skill sets blend? Since there are a lot more available options, they should find blends that work better.
Top half for sure. All depends if Shayok and Wigg can hit the 3 ball consistently
1: Kansas (Lawson twins/Azubuike); 2: KState (Brown/Wade/Sneed) Then it'll be a battle between Iowa State, Texas and Texas Tech
I wonder what Talley’s +/- would look like when he’s at the four and we utilized the fact many forwards can’t stay in front of him?
NWB is a lock. Every metric has him as one of our best players and he has little competition at the pg spot.
Our backcourt has ability but needs a lot of improvement. Passing and shot-selection have been poor.
Despite Lard and Young shooting 60% and 57% respectively this year, our 2P FG% Big 12 rank:
2017-18 10th
2016-17 8th
2015-16 1st
2014-15 1st
2013-14 2nd
2012-13 1st
2011-12 4th
2010-11 9th
Having Niang's career 50% shooting was NICE. Also, Djax and Wigg's had BAD shooting years and also took the most shots.
Long had a career 63% 2P FG. Several others above 50% including Burton, Morris, and Melvin.
Our outside shooting has been okay as a team, albeit concentrated to the guards. It’s the tough twos that have killed things. Recall, Wigginton and DJ have accounted for 22% and 20% of all FG attempts this year, but look at the effective shooting:
47% for Talley, 49% for Wigginton, 50% for Young, 50% for Babb, 52% for DJ, 61% for Lard.
For reference, career effective FG%:
Hogue 62%, McGee 61%, McKay 60%,
Naz 59%, Georges 56%, Thomas, 56%, Ejim 54%, White 54%, Scotty 54%, Allen 53%, Morris 53%, Babb 52%, Nader 52%, Burton 52%, Clyburn 50%, Lucious 49%
Along with injuries and poor fundamentals on defense, the biggest factor in our poor season is the staff not being able to utilize the backcourt’s skill to get better looks. Frankly, DJ should not have been allowed to take twos outside of end of shot-clock situations and Wigginton should have been forced to trade in tough twos for passes.
Last edited: