Expectations for 2018-2019

[Sigmapolis]

I am going to get a couple Excedrin now after reading the last dozen or so posts. All of this preseason analysis can make your head spin.

I think it's pretty simple, if NWB comes back healthy, if Cam Lard is OK, if Wigginton is improving as it appears from these articles and the Camps he is going to, if Young is improved, if THT is as advertised, if Shayok and Jacobsen play up to their potential and we avoid injuries / suspensions, if Talley keeps playing like he did toward the end of the season, and the other freshmen provide us with at least one more rotation player, we could have just an unbelievable year and a good seed in the NCAA tournament. But that is a lot of "ifs." So, my expectations are optimistic based on our talent but with some hesitancy due to all the unknowns.

I think the model is saying that if 50% of these hit, or they hit at an expected historical rate given what we know about these players from an average, historical rate and/or the rankings of the recruits coming in, we are going to be just outside the bubble.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Update to the site for projected postseason births and performance...



-- 40.9% chance of making the NCAA tournament

-- very similar chance to our opening Maui opponent in Arizona

-- 3.9% chance of winning the Big 12 tournament

-- 20.3% for the Round of 32, 11.3% for the second weekend or beyond

I will admit that I do not love those numbers. Roughly 2/5 is not the greatest. Time to prove it wrong. You all spelled out how/why that would happen, too.

 

[LLCoolCY]

The incoming freshman were interview by Tommy Birch yesterday summed up their summers.
Couple of notable comments.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/g...yrese-haliburton-george-conditt-iv/877240002/

Zion Griffn - had a couple of setbacks in his rehab due to "laziness" in rehab but it should impact his getting on the court to start the season. (Concerning on the focus but I like the fact Zion admits his error and takes responsibility right away.)
Talen Horton-Tucker - Focused on winning and lost 10lbs
George Conditt - Focused on adding wieght to complete at the Big 12 level.
Tyrese Haliburton - Added 15 lbs to his frame already

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

The incoming freshman were interview by Tommy Birch yesterday summed up their summers.
Couple of notable comments.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/get-access/?return=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/2018/08/01/iowa-state-cyclones-talen-horton-tucker-zion-griffin-steve-prohm-tyrese-haliburton-george-conditt-iv/877240002/

Zion Griffn - had a couple of setbacks in his rehab due to "laziness" in rehab but it should impact his getting on the court to start the season. (Concerning on the focus but I like the fact Zion admits his error and takes responsibility right away.)
Talen Horton-Tucker - Focused on winning and lost 10lbs
George Conditt - Focused on adding wieght to complete at the Big 12 level.
Tyrese Haliburton - Added 15 lbs to his frame already

You linked to the "get access" page, FYI.

Here's a working link:
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...yrese-haliburton-george-conditt-iv/877240002/

 

[OnlyCyclones]

Update to the site for projected postseason births and performance...

View attachment 56878

-- 40.9% chance of making the NCAA tournament

-- very similar chance to our opening Maui opponent in Arizona

-- 3.9% chance of winning the Big 12 tournament

-- 20.3% for the Round of 32, 11.2% for the second weekend or beyond

I will admit that I do not love those numbers. Roughly 2/5 is not the greatest. Time to prove it wrong. You all spelled out how/why that would happen, too.

0.1% for the Natty is infinity times greater than 0, so I'll take it.

 

[DurangoCy]

The incoming freshman were interview by Tommy Birch yesterday summed up their summers.
Couple of notable comments.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/get-access/?return=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/2018/08/01/iowa-state-cyclones-talen-horton-tucker-zion-griffin-steve-prohm-tyrese-haliburton-george-conditt-iv/877240002/

Zion Griffn - had a couple of setbacks in his rehab due to "laziness" in rehab but it should impact his getting on the court to start the season. (Concerning on the focus but I like the fact Zion admits his error and takes responsibility right away.)
Talen Horton-Tucker - Focused on winning and lost 10lbs
George Conditt - Focused on adding wieght to complete at the Big 12 level.
Tyrese Haliburton - Added 15 lbs to his frame already

I don't think we need Griffin this year, but I'm worried that he's had a few "setbacks". Bummed for him, as he's going to be behind the curve.

Also... GAWD - Randy P sucks in the video.

 

[CyTwins]

 

[Cyclonepride]

I don't need no stinking models. 6 or 7 seed. Mark it down.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't need no stinking models. 6 or 7 seed. Mark it down.

You might as well just have sent me this picture...

 

[Thomasrickj]

So who does everyone think starts? I feel like the only obvious ones are Wigginton, Shayok and Lard. My guesses would be Babb and Jacobsen as the other two. Am I way off?

 

[Cyclonepride]

So who does everyone think starts? I feel like the only obvious ones are Wigginton, Shayok and Lard. My guesses would be Babb and Jacobsen as the other two. Am I way off?

Babb/Wigginton/Shayok/Young/Lard

That’s not to say that it won’t vary or that this group will be 1-5 in minutes every game.

 

[Doc]

Nick looks strong. I really hope he is healthy this year. I think that his ceiling has flattened some from when they said he may have the most NBA potential on that 2016-2017 team because he probably still needs to rework his jump shot, but he can still be really good in CBB. We were spoiled by Monte but Nick stepped up and played a really well on the ball at times for ISU last year.

Btw, the Nuggets had Monte rework his jumper this offseason, so when I say rework, it’s not like it’s bad, it’s just that it’s not ready for freakish defenders of the NBA.

 

[I-stateTheTruth]

I can't wait for hoops season.

 

[I-stateTheTruth]

Update to the site for projected postseason births and performance...

View attachment 56878

-- 40.9% chance of making the NCAA tournament

-- very similar chance to our opening Maui opponent in Arizona

-- 3.9% chance of winning the Big 12 tournament

-- 20.3% for the Round of 32, 11.3% for the second weekend or beyond

I will admit that I do not love those numbers. Roughly 2/5 is not the greatest. Time to prove it wrong. You all spelled out how/why that would happen, too.

ISU can go winless in the Big 12 and we will ALWAYS have better than a 4% chance to win the conference tournament.

 

[I-stateTheTruth]

Update to the site for projected postseason births and performance...

View attachment 56878

-- 40.9% chance of making the NCAA tournament

-- very similar chance to our opening Maui opponent in Arizona

-- 3.9% chance of winning the Big 12 tournament

-- 20.3% for the Round of 32, 11.3% for the second weekend or beyond

I will admit that I do not love those numbers. Roughly 2/5 is not the greatest. Time to prove it wrong. You all spelled out how/why that would happen, too.

Here's what that OTHER Solo says:

 

[isu83]

What are realistic expectations for next years team? I hate looking past the rest of this season, especially for a guy like Donovan, but this year is just a couple games from being over with the likelihood of no post-season play.

Hines responded to someone on twitter recently telling them to maybe back off on the expectation of being in the tournament for sure (maybe I misinterpreted what he said, but it's how I took it). Blum on the radio show this week made it sound like next years team could contend for the conference next year. I'm probably somewhere in the middle; if I had to guess today, I would pick them anywhere from 4th-7th in the conference.

The encouraging thing is that our two best players are freshman. Wigginton and Lard should only get better. All reviews seem to point to Shayok being really good. Talen Horton-Tucker should be another great freshman player.

However, there are still questions. How do we handle the PG position; will it be Lindell or Babb? Will we have a reliable 3 point threat; can Lewis be that guy? Can Zion crack the rotation?

On the bubble is possible! It just depends on if they can close in close games!

 

[LLCoolCY]

Pretty good analytical preview on ISU's upcoming season by Three Man Weave. The writter is informed and includes impact of Shayok and THT/Griffin and areas where Wigginton can improve.
Cyclones check in at #27 of their preseason top 40.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/iowa-state-basketball-preview-2019

Bottom Line: While the offense looked uncharacteristically stale last year, it was the inability to get stops on the other end that ultimately doomed Iowa State's season. Opponents converted 73% of all shots at the rim last season - the highest clip in the country - as the Clones surrendered far too many uncontested layups defensively. It's easy to drool over the returning roster and projected lineup, but it's also hard to completely ignore the defensive incompetence witnessed last year. Shayok should inject an instant boost to the perimeter defense, so if the Lard / Young front court tandem can take a collective step forward as reliable rim protectors, the Clones' defense should improve dramatically in 2019.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Pretty good analytical preview on ISU's upcoming season by Three Man Weave. The writter is informed and includes impact of Shayok and THT/Griffin and areas where Wigginton can improve.
Cyclones check in at #27 of their preseason top 40.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/iowa-state-basketball-preview-2019

Awesome article.

 

[Sigmapolis]

On the bubble is possible! It just depends on if they can close in close games!

We are projected to have a lot of toss-up games, as you might imagine...



That is nine games (of an eventual schedule of roughly 30) between 40% and 60% win expectations, including most of our home games in the Big 12.

 

[Cycsk]

Fun video. Most notable thing is that Campbell apparently has infected Prohm with the black uniform bug.