Here's why Chizik should not be on any sort of hot seat until after at least after his sixth year at ISU (disclaimer - I know you all have heard enough about KU in the past couple weeks, but here's one more post):
Mark Mangino's record - years 1-6
Year All Big 12
2002 2-10 0-8 / 6th North
2003 6-7 3-5 / t4th North
2004 4-7 2-6 / t5th North
2005 7-5 3-5 / 5th North
2006 6-6 3-5 / 4th North
2007 12-1 7-1 / t1st North
Here's where the similarities start:
- In his first, fourth, and fifth years at KU, Mangino played a South rotation of Texas, OU, and Texas Tech
- In years two, three, and six, he played OSU, aTm, and BU.
- Both were among the highest regarded assistants in the country and regarded as more than ready to start their own programs.
So if Chizik gets fired before year six, he never really gets a chance. It is obvious to ISU fans that the talent within the program is growing and the team is very young. The problem is, it may just be too soon to get to a bowl within this year or the next. Switching South schedules will make it just as hard to get to a bowl in years four and five. Mangino, if you can recall, was probably on the top 5 on that list you linked before last season.
Here's some reasons why Chizik might have it a little tougher than Mangino had it:
- It may be a tad harder to recruit to Ames than Lawrence (less successful in basketball, colder, more rural area)
- Mangino had the benefit of KSU, Nebraska, and CU all getting worse during his time. I'm not sure I see many North programs going down too far from their current position. Missou and KU may come down a little, but it's hard not to see CU and NU come back strong.
- I'm not sure there's another 5'9" QB out there who will be overlooked by nearly every team in the country just because of his height. Todd Reesing has just been a huge part of Mangino's success.
However, there's some advantages Chizik has now over what Mangino had when he started:
- KU's facilities were absolutely awful when Mangino took over. ISU's facilities aren't Texas's, but they're not bad.
- ISU's fan support starting year two of Chizik is better than KU's starting year two of Mangino.
- Chizik is likely more personable and has an easier time getting recruits to open up to him than MM.
All in all, it would be a huge mistake to not give a coach (who was generally regarded as being one of the top assistants and future head coaches in the country when he was hired) a chance to show what he can do when he has all of his players and against a less murdurous schedule. JP must wait until after year 6, unless things are seriously wrong, to even consider a coaching change.
