No way. I think the game is trending towards actual jump balls as opposed to alternate possessions.
Anyone else for a change at the tip?
- Thread starter Cardinal2001
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No way. I think the game is trending towards actual jump balls as opposed to alternate possessions.
That is not how it works. Again link. Unless you can guarantee that winning the tip ensures the extra poss every time it may offer that adv. However, if you can't show that is leads to an extra poss every time it involves chance and more factors are in play. This seems like a theory. For example, we win the tip in the chance that it can lead to an extra poss.
I have a very hard time believing that winning the tip leads to a guaranteed extra poss. Therefore, it wouldn't provide any statistically significant adv.
I believe there are many other ways to guarantee more poss leading to a bigger statistical adv then winning the tip.
That said, it makes sense if you get the ball 51 times and your opponent only gets 50 possessions.
Kansas has won the opening tip in just 4 of their 14 games against D1 teams so far. Glad they put so much emphasis on it...
There was an article on it earlier in the season, I can vouch for that, and that it did give an 2%ish advantage. I can't find it on the google, but I assure you it was (is) for real.
Just because it was a real article doesn't mean any of the content in it was real.
Nobody said there was a guaranteed extra possession. There is a chance of an extra posession, and apparently some statistical analysis has shown that the extra possession is actually coming about and providing an advantage.
Considering how much refs hate us, this explains why we don't get the tip more often.
It's not a guaranteed extra possession; more like an extra half of a possession. Think about it. There are two ways a half can go.
1) Team A gets the first possession, Team B gets the last possession
2) Team A gets the first possession, Team A gets the last possession
Whoever wins the tip is Team A. There is a 50% chance that they will get one more possession than their opponent (if scenario #2 above comes to pass) assuming that there is enough variation over 20 minutes of basketball to prevent the opening tip from affecting which team will have the last possession.
Also, to start the second half the ball goes to whoever has the possession arrow so it is different than "deferring to the second half" in football.
Cool link bro. Def not doing a survey to read that.
The math is flawed there is no way that winning the tip definitely leads to an adv. Example, team A wins the tip, but commits a flag foul or gets a tech foul during that game. They give team B an extra poss and it negates their adv. Point being there is no way that you can definitely make the claim winning the tip gives adv (as already pointed out there is no guarantee you even get an extra poss every game u win the tip)
Bro,
You are correct in saying that it doesn't guarantee an extra possession, but it does guarantee that you won't have fewer. By the way, technical fouls go back to the point of interruption now so there is no change in possession. Here is the YouTube link, no survey needed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfKVilKf_Q
