Well if it is an extra half possession then the adv is less then 1%. A 50% chance of getting the extra poss means the adv an extra poss gives is half.
Anyone else for a change at the tip?
- Thread starter Cardinal2001
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Well if it is an extra half possession then the adv is less then 1%. A 50% chance of getting the extra poss means the adv an extra poss gives is half.
Well that depends on how many possessions are in the game and how many points per possession a team scores.
Watch the video
Exactly.
To make the claim that winning the tip is _____ adv is beyond ridiculous and certainly a moving target. The less then 1% insignificant statistical advantage was for KU it might be less for others.
Will never watch the video until the argument is far more compelling. At this point it isn't so I won't waste my time
And based on math and evidence in this thread there is also no reason to watch video.
Yet you have time to waste on digging a hole by still posting on this.
Please realize you're trying to say the chance of an extra possession isn't worth the impact on a win. (If you lose the tip, you don't have that chance).
And since for whatever reason you won't watch that video, the stats back it up that it has a statistical impact on wins.
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I'll try some math here.
By winning the opening tip you have a 50% chance of having one more possession during the game. Teams score around 1 point per possession so that would be .5 points per game for the team that wins the tip.
But changing the person that jumps the opening tip doesn't guarantee that you will win it. No matter who you have jumping, there is enough random action that you will win some and lose some. It's pretty hard to imagine that you could affect the outcome by more than 20% of the times by using a player who may (or may not) be better than the player that you are already using.
Net result, the best you could probably hope for is 20% times .5, or .1 points per game.
By winning the opening tip you have a 50% chance of having one more possession during the game. Teams score around 1 point per possession so that would be .5 points per game for the team that wins the tip.
But changing the person that jumps the opening tip doesn't guarantee that you will win it. No matter who you have jumping, there is enough random action that you will win some and lose some. It's pretty hard to imagine that you could affect the outcome by more than 20% of the times by using a player who may (or may not) be better than the player that you are already using.
Net result, the best you could probably hope for is 20% times .5, or .1 points per game.
Actually the advantage is still there, even in your scenario. The technical foul has no effect on the alternate possession arrow. Say team A loses the tip, in your scenario, they are now down a possession instead of being even.
I think we can all agree that the advantage is very little but it does exist. Whether it exists in a particular game or not depends on if there are an even or odd number of jump balls.
I'll take the easy way out. Coach Prohm depends on guys like me to put a tasty steak in front of him for his pregame meal. I'll depend on guys like him to determine who they have jumping at the tipoff.
I'm guessing CYcoFan didn't major in math or Computer Science at ISU. There is clear evidence in this thread, and common sense, that shows there is an advantage. One can debate whether the advantage is 0.5 points per game or 1 point per game, but either way, this matters over the long haul. Imagine gaining a 0.5 point advantage while betting on games in Vegas. Do you think that would matter?
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
I was wondering about this as well so I can into this thread wanting to see what others thought and instead find a bunch of people being a-holes to the OP. Way to go guys.
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
There is clear evidence there is an advantage? Do tell or show! The game is not played in a vacuum. The statistical advantage, if there even is one, is insignificant (I know you probably didn't take stats and math is hard. But statistical significance is 5% thus is not).
There is so much action in the game focusing on Off Reb % and Def Reb % impact the game much more. However, carry on your drivel made me laugh.
This isn't Nam Moneyball this is basketball and there are rules. Therefore anything statistically insignificant is not an adv. Am I crazy? Am I the only one that cares about the rules?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=3vB9U2hx6Qg