2023-24 ISU WBB Season Thread
- Thread starter theshadow
- Start date
Two games remain. We are tied with Baylor right now. They have an easy remaining two games. If we want the fifth seed and to avoid Texas we need a sweep this week. If we lose one and Baylor wins out we will be the sixth seed. KU has a tough last three and shouldn’t push us record-wise. As coach said…these are meaningful games.
#40 in NET today
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NET Ranking - Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
2024 Women's College Basketball NET Ranking: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking of teams based on five factors, team value index, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage, and scoring margin.
#40 in NET today
NET Ranking - Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
2024 Women's College Basketball NET Ranking: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking of teams based on five factors, team value index, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage, and scoring margin.
40 yesterday.
39 today.
I look at teams above us and think…if only we hadn’t had the mid conference slump. But…it’s still a learning experience.
Between the 4 losses w/o Ryan...
6 Iowa (H)
41 Syracuse (N)
60 Vanderbilt (N)
70 Drake (A)
...and the game that wasn't...
46 TCU (H)
...16-10 could very well be 19-8 instead. It will be interesting to see if the committee takes any of that into account.
6 Iowa (H)
41 Syracuse (N)
60 Vanderbilt (N)
70 Drake (A)
...and the game that wasn't...
46 TCU (H)
...16-10 could very well be 19-8 instead. It will be interesting to see if the committee takes any of that into account.
38-39-40 has been the range for us for several weeks, right? Going off memory. Not much moves a team this late.
The biggest moves in conference play were +6 after beating OSU (opener), -5 after losing to OU, and +4 after beating KSU. But those were likely also coupled with other adjacent teams winning/losing at the same time.
Most of the time, the biggest move daily is +/- 2.
They absolutely do and will IMHO. Not saying we are a lock or anything but I think we are better at 16 wins than most year. The KSU win was pretty big in making a statement we are worthy following that string of losses. The forfeit does not "officially count" but the committee will know that was 90% plus chance for a win at Hilton without Prince and a short roster. There is nothing in the official published process that says anything about forfeits.
I usually discount the importance of tournament wins (barring an upset winner), especially ones on the weekend leading to committee selection like the Big 12's. This year might be different in possibly showing ISU is better with Ryan maybe closing in our fully game strength again.
Plus, I won't discount the Audi Crooks factor. She is becoming a national player of interest. Real WBB fans outside of Iowa know who she is and the NCAA loves some star power for TV, especially something they can talk up in lower seeded match ups. She's come on strong in conference so you can add that as a "late" season plus on top of Ryan's play.
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Here's a link to the selection committee guidelines. Lot's and lot's of process but it's summarized well near the end if you want to skip all of the voting and ranking steps. Highlighted a couple of pluses for us.
Linky to full "process":
Criteria used by the Division I Women’s Basketball Committee to evaluate a team includes (alphabetically):
● Availability of talent (injured or unavailable players) [supports @theshadow comments on Ryan being out]
● Bad losses
● Common opponents
● Competitive in losses [mostly]
● Conference record
● Early competition versus late competition
● Head-to-head outcomes
● NET ranking
● Non-conference record
● Overall record
● Regional Advisory Committee region rankings
● Significant wins
● Strength of conference [generally a plus]
● Strength of schedule
Linky to full "process":
Assuming we can beat a bad Cincinnati team at home on Saturday, I think we're a lock at 17-11 (11-7) even if we don't win any games in the conference tourney. We'd really be 18-11, we were not going to lose at home to a reeling TCU team.
Yup, usually a 16 win teams looks more like who we just beat, BYU (15-14, 4-11). We'll, however have a worst at 10-8 Big 12 record and more likely 11-7 with a shot at 12-6 if we can upset KSU.
Wild ride since end of December, at for this fan. Me after hot Big 12 start = NCAA lock. Me after swoon and thinking freshmen maybe hitting the wall = wrong side of bubble. Me after team rights the ship = near NCAA lock again.
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Obviously we want to win as many games as possible, but I don't think we really need to worry about Big 12 tournament seeding. Win a game you're favored in and then you have nothing to lose. I guess what I'm saying is when it comes to this team, there isn't much difference between playing OU/Texas/KSU. We'll need a hell of an effort to beat any of them.
Normally, I would agree, but in our case, we match up with Kansas State and Oklahoma, much better than Texas. The game at home against Oklahoma was a major aberration.
I did some looking for all the women's bracketology projections out there. All four I found have Iowa State in the tournament and were made before Saturday's results.
ESPN (updated Friday morning): 11 seed, avoiding the play-in
CBS (updated Friday afternoon): 9 seed
HerHoopStats (updated Thursday morning): 11 seed, in the play-in
CollegeSportsMadness (updated last Monday, should have an update today or tomorrow): 11 seed, in the play-in
ESPN (updated Friday morning): 11 seed, avoiding the play-in
CBS (updated Friday afternoon): 9 seed
HerHoopStats (updated Thursday morning): 11 seed, in the play-in
CollegeSportsMadness (updated last Monday, should have an update today or tomorrow): 11 seed, in the play-in
If you say so. I agree Kansas State is a good matchup, but Oklahoma ran us out of Hilton. We were severely outgunned in that matchup.
The reason we were run out was none of our players could hit an open jump shot. It wasn’t just OU defense.
Women's basketball Bracket Watch: Why NC State still deserves a No. 1 seed
How will the second-place race in the Pac-12 impact tournament seeding?
theathletic.com
This was last updated 02/20 and has us as a 9
Also this:Women's basketball Bracket Watch: Why NC State still deserves a No. 1 seed
How will the second-place race in the Pac-12 impact tournament seeding?
This was last updated 02/20 and has us as a 9
Spotlight on: Iowa State
The Cyclones encountered a skid in late January that bled into the beginning of February after their eight-game winning streak put them on the map. They’ve gotten back to playing .500 since their loss to Oklahoma, but picking up a double-overtime win over Kansas State was a massive boost to their tournament resume. A rematch with the Wildcats next week is one of the biggest games remaining on the Big 12 schedule.Iowa State played a difficult nonconference schedule, ranked 30th in the country, while integrating five freshmen who play significant minutes, and they were without senior point guard Emily Ryan for much of it. Wins over Troy and North Dakota State are solid, but the best wins have come in the Big 12. It helps greatly that the Cyclones have been close in largely every game except for their lone meeting with Texas.
Defeating BYU and Cincinnati will be key in holding the course, and another win over Kansas State could carry the Cyclones from a No. 11 seed to a No. 8 or higher with some wiggle room in the Big 12 tournament.
Regardless of what happens, Iowa State’s exploits have been awesome to watch. The future is wildly bright in Ames with Addy Brown and Audi Crooks asserting themselves as immediate impactors and potential stars in the league. A postseason run would be an exciting punctuation on their first season.