Iowa State's AdjEM is 23.90.
This is a good way to see gaps between teams. Houston is almost 2 full points ahead of UConn in AdjEm. That is similar to the gap between ISU (#9) and Michigan St (#15).
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
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Iowa State's AdjEM is 23.90.
This is a good way to see gaps between teams. Houston is almost 2 full points ahead of UConn in AdjEm. That is similar to the gap between ISU (#9) and Michigan St (#15).
JFC they are an analytical monster.
They’re a billionaire’s version of Iowa State.
So here's some more sobering data.
The adjEM of the teams above that won. Ken Pom only goes back to 2002.
2004 GTech 24.69
2013 Syracuse 24.83
2015 Duke 32.48
2018 St Johns 10.31
2019 Duke 30.62
Saint Johns is the outlier. Insert Lloyd Christmas there's a chance gif
These are end of season adjME I don't have KenPom to get the game metric nor do I have the time, and now nor the optimism.
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So of the 5 times it’s happened in the Kenpom era twice it’s been teams similar to Iowa St this year (an adjEM within 1), once its was a giant upset, and twice it was teams that weren’t too far off in adjEM from the team they beat.
That's what I gather. So if you take Larry's number of 7 wins out of 427 games you get 1.6% chance of the other team winning. Of those wins it goes to 0.7% of teams with similar or lower adjEM winning.
They've lost 5 of their last 6 for god sake
Just looking back at end of season adjEM and based on Cyclone Larry’s 477 home games over that time period, it appears there averages about one team per season with a 32+. There are usually around 10 teams that are around 24 or above. So my best guess is there are a little less than 2 games per season with a 23.9+ team playing a true road game at a 32+ team. Based on Larry’s list of games the 23.9+ teams have a ~10% success rate of winning. But also the sample size is pretty small so its hard to take too much from it.
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One interesting thing is that even though we are 3rd in AdjD and Houston is 1st and we are 42nd in AdjO and Houston is 16th, we are closer to them in AdjO (3.6 difference) than we are in AdjD (4.8 difference).
Iowa State's defense is good but within the historical bounds of a very good college defense.
Houston's defense is historically great.
Keshon bumped Cryer out of Big 12 all-Kenpom #5 spot.
Lipsey was at #3 recently, at #4 now.
Lipsey was at #3 recently, at #4 now.
Any of you stat gurus think that our offensive rating could improve even after the loss tonight?
it did. We're 39 at KP on offense now. Moved up from 9 to 8 overall. Defense is still ranked 3rd.
Top 40 is championship territory....
(With a top 20 defense)
Keshon owns LJ Cryer, made him a total non-factor in both our games.
Shead has a nice Caitlin Clark-style chicken wing on dribble-drives.
Shead has a nice Caitlin Clark-style chicken wing on dribble-drives.
Not bad at all. Win outright and make it to at least the finals of the Big 12 tourney and we should be looking at a 2 seed.
Shead was great. Single handedly took over the game for them in the second half. That was the best performance I've seen against an Iowa State team in quite a while.
The hallmark of an elite player is having everyone in the building knowing that they're the one you have to stop, and still not being able to do it. The last ten minutes of their offense was 90% Shead and 10% the rest of their guys getting set up by him.