2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[rosshm16]

My line is Clones by 25!

 

[Gunnerclone]

We play in the toughest conference that exists by far. That more than outweighs anything in the noncon. We have played 10 games against quad 1, which is up there with just about anyone else

The committee isn't supposed to be looking just at the first 13 games or so and be assigning special weight to them. That's why the metrics are better at this- they look at the whole schedule holistically and assign value from there based on our performance against that.

Look at the teams that occupy the top 8 spots.

UConn - blue blood
Purdue - new blood
AZ - blue blood
UnC - blue blood
KU - blue blood

Then rounded out with Houston that is undeniably a #1 seed, Tenn cuz have to have the SEC. Marquette to keep UConn as strong as possible.

Feel like this exercise is one spot where the Big 12 gets the “well it can’t just be all Big 12 teams” treatment.

 

[CRCySpy]

Look at the teams that occupy the top 8 spots.

UConn - blue blood
Purdue - new blood
AZ - blue blood
UnC - blue blood
KU - blue blood

Then rounded out with Houston that is undeniably a #1 seed, Tenn cuz have to have the SEC. Marquette to keep UConn as strong as possible.

Feel like this exercise is one spot where the Big 12 gets the “well it can’t just be all Big 12 teams” treatment.

And rounding out the top 16 with Illinois and Wisconsin to make Purdue look better.

When I saw Wisconsin at 16 yesterday I lost all credibility for the early reveal. Is Jerry Palm on the committe this year? Wiscy is a 6 seed right now, and that was even before yesterday's loss to EIU. Wiscy has lost to Rutgers and Michigan recently.

 

[rosshm16]

We will all get a boost if KU rallies and wins the league since the national narrative is the Big 12 must be down if KU is down.

 

[FerShizzle]

Continue to gain a bit on Houston, as others have said Monday will be huge.

View attachment 124157

They haven’t really ‘gained’ on Houston. The cougars chances of a share are nearly at a season high. But we have removed every other teams chances and made it a 2 team race. Win on Monday and the Houston and ISU chances will flip.

 

[CyPunch]

I don't think being seeded #1 vs. #2 vs. even #3 matters all that much, it's all about the region/venues and who else is in it. The bullsh** in 2000 for example was not that we should have been the #1 seed in the Midwest and MSU should have been the #2 seed, either way you end up playing the same team in the regional final most likely. It was that we had to play them on essentially their home floor in the 4th round when we were arguably the best team in the country.

This got me curious about 14 vs 15 seeds...

Average KenPom rankings of current 14 seeds: 114.5

Average KenPom rankings of current 15 seeds: 141.25

The average 16 seed is 200+

 

[CyPunch]

It would be really funny if KU doesn't make the top 4 seeds and has to play on Wed.

I think it's likely this happens to Baylor with their remaining schedule

 

[bawbie]

Heard announcers talking about how a 2/3 really don't matter, as you will be playing each other anyway if the seeding holds, and so I don't really care (though I'd love to see ISU stay there so that we avoid a 1 as long as possible).

The one thing I can see is that the currently projected 6-seeds are much scarier than the currently projected 7-seeds

 

[twincyties]

Baylor has a tough run to finish the season:

@ BYU
UH
@TCU
KU
UT
@Tech

Probably 3 losses in there and none of them would be “bad” ones.

 

[8bitnes]

We will all get a boost if KU rallies and wins the league since the national narrative is the Big 12 must be down if KU is down.

KU can't simultaneously have impressive non conference wins and be in 5th place in the b12 while also having the conference be down. Either their non conference wins are unimpressive or the big 12 is up. Sports media and their mental gymnastics at its finest

 

[dahliaclone]

I don't think being seeded #1 vs. #2 vs. even #3 matters all that much, it's all about the region/venues and who else is in it. The bullsh** in 2000 for example was not that we should have been the #1 seed in the Midwest and MSU should have been the #2 seed, either way you end up playing the same team in the regional final most likely. It was that we had to play them on essentially their home floor in the 4th round when we were arguably the best team in the country.

Thank gene smith for that stupid move

 

[cycloneML]

Thank gene smith for that stupid move

How was he involved?

 

[Dale]

Finally had a chance to run the conference championship numbers after Saturday's games. TL;DR -- the winner of ISU/Houston has a 90 percent chance of at least tying for the conference title, the loser drops to a one-in-three chance.

EXACT SCENARIOS	current	ISU over TT	TT over ISU
Houston alone:	56%	11%	68%
Houston/ISU tie:	21%	23%	20%
ISU alone:	19%	63%	8%
Houston/ISU/Baylor tie:	1%	1%	1%
Other:	3%	3%	4%
CHAMPIONSHIPS W/ TIES	current	ISU over TT	TT over ISU
Houston:	80%	35%	92%
ISU:	42%	90%	31%
Baylor:	3%	2%	3%
TT:	2%	1%	1%
Kansas:	1%	1%	1%

 

[NWICY]

KU doesn't care about the Big 12 tournament. Just ask them.

The only years KU doesn't care about the B12 tourney is when they lose.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[blizzisu]

What's going on with the Torvik Tourneycast? Ever since our TTU win, we dropped from the top 2 seed to the bottom 3 seed.

 

[bosco]

What's going on with the Torvik Tourneycast? Ever since our TTU win, we dropped from the top 2 seed to the bottom 3 seed.


View attachment 124204

I'm not sure. Their Ranktology has us as a 4 seed. Someone at Torvik lost their minds or ZRF sent them an email.

 

[ebState]

My guess is they adjusted the weights of their formula to line up with what the committee put out.

They give us a 0.1% chance of a #1 seed now.

 

[ebState]

ISU is top 10 in NET, Elo, Wins Against Bubble, KP and Torvik. There are 2 seeds that can't even boast that.

 

[bosco]

This was posted by Larry.



Could someone with KenPom tell us what is Iowa States adjEM?

Curious what the adjEM's were of those 7 that won.