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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Cyclonepride said:
The hallmark of an elite player is having everyone in the building knowing that they're the one you have to stop, and still not being able to do it. The last ten minutes of their offense was 90% Shead and 10% the rest of their guys getting set up by him.
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I don't know an easy way to scrape or filter for this on the Torvik site, but...

1708445229628.png

+10.3 from Shead was impressive

On the flip side, Lipsey had what must have been his worst game as a Cyclone. He made one shot, and even that was a lucky one that slipped off his hand and somehow banked in for him.

Part of me worries Tamin is a well that is going dry. He's clearly not 100%. I fear we might have taken all we can from his body for the season (or heck, even his career) without degrading him.

Giving Tamin a week off and handing the keys to Gilbert against WVU at home might not be a bad idea. You need him to be himself if this team is going to make it to the second weekend+.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
I don't know an easy way to scrape or filter for this on the Torvik site, but...

View attachment 124285

+10.3 from Shead was impressive

On the flip side, Lipsey had what must have been his worst game as a Cyclone. He made one shot, and even that was a lucky one that slipped off his hand and somehow banked in for him.

Part of me worries Tamin is a well that is going dry. He's clearly not 100%. I fear we might have taken all we can from his body for the season (or heck, even his career) without degrading him.

Giving Tamin a week off and handing the keys to Gilbert against WVU at home might not be a bad idea. You need him to be himself if this team is going to make it to the second weekend+.
Click to expand...
I personally think Tamin just had a bad game against a great team and a great guard who was on him. Tamin's 4 games prior to that were all solid.
 
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Letterkenny said:
Shead was great. Single handedly took over the game for them in the second half. That was the best performance I've seen against an Iowa State team in quite a while.
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He hit some tough shots and then totally had our defense in a bit of a scramble several times trying to cover him
 
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Sigmapolis said:
I don't know an easy way to scrape or filter for this on the Torvik site, but...

View attachment 124285

+10.3 from Shead was impressive

On the flip side, Lipsey had what must have been his worst game as a Cyclone. He made one shot, and even that was a lucky one that slipped off his hand and somehow banked in for him.

Part of me worries Tamin is a well that is going dry. He's clearly not 100%. I fear we might have taken all we can from his body for the season (or heck, even his career) without degrading him.

Giving Tamin a week off and handing the keys to Gilbert against WVU at home might not be a bad idea. You need him to be himself if this team is going to make it to the second weekend+.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind giving Tamin additional time to rest and recover. He just goes balls to the wall on everything, so it takes a toll. At least the Monday-Saturday schedule this week gives him a bit extra rest too. If we sat him until the OU game, that's 8 full days of rest between games.
 
Sigmapolis said:
I don't know an easy way to scrape or filter for this on the Torvik site, but...

View attachment 124285

+10.3 from Shead was impressive

On the flip side, Lipsey had what must have been his worst game as a Cyclone. He made one shot, and even that was a lucky one that slipped off his hand and somehow banked in for him.

Part of me worries Tamin is a well that is going dry. He's clearly not 100%. I fear we might have taken all we can from his body for the season (or heck, even his career) without degrading him.

Giving Tamin a week off and handing the keys to Gilbert against WVU at home might not be a bad idea. You need him to be himself if this team is going to make it to the second weekend+.
Click to expand...
I think part of it was Tamin trying to do a little too much and a big part was getting locked down by one of the best defenders in college bball. Shead was everywhere on both ends. It happens we've done it to lots of other teams best players
 
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CloniesForLife said:
I think part of it was Tamin trying to do a little too much and a big part was getting locked down by one of the best defenders in college bball. Shead was everywhere on both ends. It happens we've done it to lots of other teams best players
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And just being dinged up in general. Tamin had 14 pts, 4 rebs, 2 assists in Ames to Shead's 14 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists. Shead is not a dude you want to go up against when you're not 100%, and Tamin looks like he's about 75%
 
CloniesForLife said:
I think part of it was Tamin trying to do a little too much and a big part was getting locked down by one of the best defenders in college bball. Shead was everywhere on both ends. It happens we've done it to lots of other teams best players
Click to expand...

If he could have gotten a couple of the phantom calls that Houston got in the 1st half it would have helped.
 
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Statefan10 said:
I personally think Tamin just had a bad game against a great team and a great guard who was on him. Tamin's 4 games prior to that were all solid.
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Was more concerned with how Tamin looked physically. Looked like he got beat up in the 1st half and wasn't the same. I never noticed anything like that against Tech on Saturday. Hopefully he's good after a few days off but I wouldn't be against seeing him sit a game down the stretch.
 
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How about an update...

Big 12 Conference Standings
Team...W/L... %.....TF.....GB....E#
1. UH...10-3... .769...+3...X...X
2. ISU...9-4... .692...+3...1...5
3. KU...8-5... .615...+2...2...4
4. BU...8-5... .615...+2...2...4 (KU beat BU @ home. They will meet @ BU 02 MAR)
------------------------ Top 4 teams get a double bye in Big 12 Tourney (Thur).
5. TTU...8-5... .615...+1...2...4
6. TCU...7-6... .538...+1...3...3
------------------------- Teams 5-6 opponents played the night before.
7. BYU...7-6... .538...0...3...3 (TCU also has tiebreak w/ W over #1 UH. TCU plays @ BYU 02 MAR, their only matchup)
8. UT...6-7... .462...-1...4...2
9. OU...6-7... .462...-1...4...2 (UT won @ OU. They will meet @ UT 09 MAR)
10. UC...5-7... .417...-1...4.5...2
------------------------- Teams 5-10 get a bye in Big 12 Tourney (Wed).
11. KSU...5-8... .385...-1...5...1
12. UCF...4-9... .308...-2...4...E
13. WVU...4-9... .308...-3...5...E
14. OSU...3-9... .250...-3...6...E
------------------------- Teams 11-14 play on Tuesday in Big 12 Tourney.

Current NET game record:
()=remaining games in quad
Q1 6-5 (2)
..Q1a 4-4 (1)
..Q1b 2-1 (1)
Q2 3-1 (2)
..Q2a 1-1 (2)
..Q2b 2-0
Q3 2-0 (1)
Q4 9-0

Remaining games for ISU:
Date..B12 Rank..Team..NET
S 24 FEB - 13 WVU (Q3)
W 28 FEB - 9 OU (Q2a)
S 02 MAR - @ 12 UCF (Q1b)
W 06 MAR - 7 BYU (Q1a)
S 09 MAR - @ 11 KSU (Q2a)

Note: If the Big 12 uses a similar but expanded format next year 9-16 would play on Tuesday, 5-8 would get a single bye (all playing an opponent who played the night before), and 1-4 would get a double bye.
 
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VeloClone said:
How about an update...

Big 12 Conference Standings
Team...W/L... %.....TF.....GB....E#
1. UH...10-3... .769...+3...X...X
2. ISU...9-4... .692...+3...1...5
3. KU...8-5... .615...+2...2...4
4. BU...8-5... .615...+2...2...4 (KU beat BU @ home. They will meet @ BU 02 MAR)
------------------------ Top 4 teams get a double bye in Big 12 Tourney (Thur).
5. TTU...8-5... .615...+1...2...4
6. TCU...7-6... .538...+1...3...3
------------------------- Teams 5-6 opponents played the night before.
7. BYU...7-6... .538...0...3...3 (TCU also has tiebreak w/ W over #1 UH. TCU plays @ BYU 02 MAR, their only matchup)
8. UT...6-7... .462...-1...4...2
9. OU...6-7... .462...-1...4...2 (UT won @ OU. They will meet @ UT 09 MAR)
10. UC...5-7... .417...-1...4.5...2
------------------------- Teams 5-10 get a bye in Big 12 Tourney (Wed).
11. KSU...5-8... .385...-1...5...1
12. UCF...4-9... .308...-2...4...E
13. WVU...4-9... .308...-3...5...E
14. OSU...3-9... .250...-3...6...E
------------------------- Teams 11-14 play on Tuesday in Big 12 Tourney.

Current NET game record:
()=remaining games in quad
Q1 6-5 (2)
..Q1a 4-4 (1)
..Q1b 2-1 (1)
Q2 3-1 (2)
..Q2a 1-1 (2)
..Q2b 2-0
Q3 2-0 (1)
Q4 9-0

Remaining games for ISU:
Date..B12 Rank..Team..NET
S 24 FEB - 13 WVU (Q3)
W 28 FEB - 8 OU (Q2a)
S 02 MAR - @ 11 UCF (Q1b)
W 06 MAR - 6 BYU (Q1a)
S 09 MAR - @ 9 KSU (Q2a)

Note: If the Big 12 uses a similar but expanded format next year 9-16 would play on Tuesday, 5-8 would get a single bye (all playing an opponent who played the night before), and 1-4 would get a double bye.
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I'm sure there's a bit of work to do before it becomes clear, but I'm curious what we'd need to happen to get the 1 seed with a tie (not that it matters). Also, as it stands, it's nice to have the tie breakers with 5 & 6 for the double bye
 
Cyclonepride said:
I'm sure there's a bit of work to do before it becomes clear, but I'm curious what we'd need to happen to get the 1 seed with a tie (not that it matters). Also, as it stands, it's nice to have the tie breakers with 5 & 6 for the double bye
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As it stands right now we have a 2-1 record against the next highest group of teams (KU, BU, TTU) with no games to play. If we were to end up tied with Houston they are 1-1 against those teams with games still pending with KU and BU. This tiebreak is calculated before any tiebreak is applied to that group of teams. So either UH will be 3-1 against those teams and take the 1 seed or they would be 2-2 or worse against them and we would have the tie breaker based on winning percentage against that group.

At least that is the way I understand it still works...
 
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We are done with the current 1-6 teams with a game remaining against the #7 (tied for 6th) team so while there are some losses guaranteed among the current bye teams (two of those teams face so someone is getting an L) we aren't a team that is in a "loss guaranteed" game.

However, ISU can afford to lose two and still be guaranteed to get a bye. If BYU wins out then they have a H2H tiebreak over ISU and could take the 6th spot and drop us to 7. Not so fast my friend. In order to win out BYU also would have to beat TCU again handing them another loss so BYU goes to 5, ISU to 6 and TCU drops to 7.

But it sounds like more fun to me to just win out.
 
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I hesitate to say this but one team who could do the most for ISU would be for K State to win an effing game for a change. They sit at NET 77. If they would move up just two spots to 75 the win in Ames would move up from a Q3 to Q2b and the future game in Manahattan would move up from a Q2a to Q1b.

That would be great for ISU's resume but it is so damned enjoyable watching the **** show in Manhattan.
 
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