2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

The other thing about last year's team - and really the only area that they were significantly better than this year's - is that they were a sneakily REALLY good rebounding team. Top 25 in offensive rebounds and Top 10 in defensive rebounding (I don't have kenpom right now, so I can't confirm with that data). This team is okay - but more middle of the pack for Big XII

Are there less rebounds to be had because we aren’t as bad making baskets and shooting?
 
I think Iowa State can lose to Houston and still get a 1 seed if Arizona drops one and we take care of the rest.

Not an impossible scenario, but I'm not sure what happens if ISU won out and Houston's only lose was to us. I think there would have to be two 1 seeds for the B12, but who gets put in the West?
 
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The other thing about last year's team - and really the only area that they were significantly better than this year's - is that they were a sneakily REALLY good rebounding team. Top 25 in offensive rebounds and Top 10 in defensive rebounding (I don't have kenpom right now, so I can't confirm with that data). This team is okay - but more middle of the pack for Big XII
Is a lot closer than I would have guessed.

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33.3% this year.

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33.9% last year.
 
He does it against the 3/4 court press. Guessing his height is the advantage there, plus decision making.
He works as an off ball option when the other teams double on the ball. Everyone does that. Kunc was used that way, but he wasn't a guard either. I wouldn't consider Watson a guard and that's how he's listed also. More a wing or SF. Anyway, it all doesn't matter what labeled position we call each player. The line between each position is kinda gray since good players are skilled in a lot of ways.
 
I think Iowa State can lose to Houston and still get a 1 seed if Arizona drops one and we take care of the rest.

Not an impossible scenario, but I'm not sure what happens if ISU won out and Houston's only lose was to us. I think there would have to be two 1 seeds for the B12, but who gets put in the West?

I’ve kind of adopted Arizona as another team because of a friend and they seem to be righting the ship a bit, they did pick up some crazy wins in non conf and their non conf schedule was ludicrous. They’d be tricky to seed right now in terms of 1/2/3, not sure how much weight recency has.
 
I’ve kind of adopted Arizona as another team because of a friend and they seem to be righting the ship a bit, they did pick up some crazy wins in non conf and their non conf schedule was ludicrous. They’d be tricky to seed right now in terms of 1/2/3, not sure how much weight recency has.
Their margin of error is smaller with how relatively weak the P12 has been (They don't have an Q1 games left in the regular season!) but like you said, they had some stellar non conference wins and the predictives love them.

I haven't watched any conference games cuz I don't have the P12 network but they definitely *looked* like a team that deserved a 1 seed when I watched them a couple months ago, whatever that is worth.
 
He was flustered after making some bad turnovers in the 1st half. Fortunately, Curtis Jones has stepped up as defensive game plans continue to key on taking away Milan.

I'd be interested to see the numbers on Milan shooting open threes vs contested. It anecdotally feels like he is elite when open but struggles to hit threes when guarded. This is something I think he can improve on as he gets better, stronger, more comfortable.
That fade away of his is nails.
 
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Kalscheur (the guy was second-team all-Big 12 for a reason, brought it every night on defense even if he could be somewhat inconsistent on offense) a

There probably isn't a Kunc equivalent on this team, but I don't think one is really needed with all the upgrades elsewhere. Watson is somewhat that (at least on defense) as the rangy stopper.

R. Jones, King, and Ward are all *MUCH* better versions of themselves this year.
"somewhat inconsistent" is sugar coating it. One night in 3, he was very good offensively. The other 3, he was a dumpster fire, 4 points on 9 shots and 5 turnovers type of thing. At least, this is how I remember it. He was better in year 2. Good Gabe / Bad Gabe.

If you were high, and squinted a lot, Kunc is kind of a homeless man's Milan. Lanky, can drive, decent shooter. Milan has a lot more skill and moves, but will never be able to flop like Kunc.

It's remarkable how much small improvements have made big differences with Rob and Tre offensively. Also, Rob, Tre, and Ward are all such different players as posts, has to be tricky for the defender.
 
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Got the green checkmark on making the tournament...

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It might require a stumble from one of the higher teams (and especially Houston if Iowa State were to become the perceived alpha dog in the Big 12) , but a #1 seed is within reach...

View attachment 123905

Just for fun winning out...

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The next two games are HUGE in this race...

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Are you able to make projections on the final chart? I'd be curious how dramatically the top two would shift if we win against Tech and @houston. I'd assume we'd become the heavy favorites at that point?
 
Another shoutout to Curtis Jones. In the first 4 conference games, he scored 12 total points. Since then he's scored at least 11 in each game.

Minutes/g2pt FG%2pt Att/g3pt FG%3pt Att/gFT%FT Att/gAssistsStealsTurnoversPoints/g
First 423.830%2.522.2%2.3N/A011523.0
Last 729.661.3%4.535.7%685%2.91314412.1

He's really covered for Milan's drop in output the last several games
Having him and Gilbert as older more experienced guards is paying dividends. They've stepped up so much and the consistency with them is amazing. Gilbert knew he wasn't feeling it from deep, so he drove instead and it was paying off in killing some momentum shifts at times last night. CJ did it plenty with a couple 3's and some great drives with some pullups in the lane. He just seems like a silent assassin that is flying under the radar.

Dang this team is fun. Win in different ways. Experienced. Balanced. ISU is back to being a basketball school.
 
Having him and Gilbert as older more experienced guards is paying dividends. They've stepped up so much and the consistency with them is amazing. Gilbert knew he wasn't feeling it from deep, so he drove instead and it was paying off in killing some momentum shifts at times last night. CJ did it plenty with a couple 3's and some great drives with some pullups in the lane. He just seems like a silent assassin that is flying under the radar.

Dang this team is fun. Win in different ways. Experienced. Balanced. ISU is back to being a basketball school.
Getting transfer guards in Gilbert, Jones and Pav with multiple years of eligibility is like winning the lottery. I loved the strategy at the time, but thought it would pay off more next year.
 
He was flustered after making some bad turnovers in the 1st half. Fortunately, Curtis Jones has stepped up as defensive game plans continue to key on taking away Milan.

I'd be interested to see the numbers on Milan shooting open threes vs contested. It anecdotally feels like he is elite when open but struggles to hit threes when guarded. This is something I think he can improve on as he gets better, stronger, more comfortable.
Yeah, but his turnaround step back shot in the lane is almost dang near money all the time.
 
I think Iowa State can lose to Houston and still get a 1 seed if Arizona drops one and we take care of the rest.

Not an impossible scenario, but I'm not sure what happens if ISU won out and Houston's only lose was to us. I think there would have to be two 1 seeds for the B12, but who gets put in the West?
Maybe if we win the Big 12 tournament/make it to the finals. I just don't see the committee not giving the last 1 seed to either the winner of Pac 12 or SEC.. but we'll see how it all shakes out
 
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Getting transfer guards in Gilbert, Jones and Pav with multiple years of eligibility is like winning the lottery. I loved the strategy at the time, but thought it would pay off more next year.
I have to keep reminding myself that these guys have multiple years left, which is mind blowing to me. They're playing at a higher more experienced level. Having strong guard play for years to come means they can key in on a really really good transfer post player next year. Shouldn't take much to convince someone to join. Also, one can easily forget about JT Rock in the mold. I would imagine if Omaha stays, he'll get thrown into the fire. TJ is a mastermind in the transfer market. Man needs paid handsomely.
 
Getting transfer guards in Gilbert, Jones and Pav with multiple years of eligibility is like winning the lottery. I loved the strategy at the time, but thought it would pay off more next year.
And people were complaining about not getting any bigs. Now we can pool the NIL money into getting a big or 2 the next portal cycle because those guys we got have multiple years.
 
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Really every rotational piece has been marginally if not significantly upgraded.

Lipsey is a better version of himself at PG. Gilbert is a much better backup PG than Holmes.

Gilbert and C. Jones are just about as good as Kalscheur (the guy was second-team all-Big 12 for a reason, brought it every night on defense even if he could be somewhat inconsistent on offense) and much better and more consistent than Grill (very mercurial) and Holmes (inefficient) as SGs. Plus, you have another bench depth guard in Paveletzke for emergencies that the team last season simply didn't have (and missed late).

Milan simply wasn't a type of player the team last year had on the roster. He's a mismatch nightmare and always a threat to score -- teams are scheming to take him away nowadays, but that is just opening up the rest of the court for everybody else for the other guards and big men to punish them.

There probably isn't a Kunc equivalent on this team, but I don't think one is really needed with all the upgrades elsewhere. Watson is somewhat that (at least on defense) as the rangy stopper.

R. Jones, King, and Ward are all *MUCH* better versions of themselves this year. Pre-knee injury Osunniyi would probably be on that tier, but he was hurt for half the Big 12 slate and thus diminished.

The only guy off the team last year that I'd probably even want this year would be Kalscheur. Can't have too many quality guards in college basketball. But it's not like a pressing need with Gilbert/Jones around.
Couldn't agree more. But, I wonder where Gabe would find minutes when noting the efficiency of Jones, the ball handling of Gilbert, and the mismatch that is Milan and more below

One difference I note is Curtis and Keshon help to keep the opposing offense out to 20-25+ feet from the basket and kalscheur/Holmes/kunz couldn't really help with that. Teams were able to attack us from closer in a year ago. This helps us trap as the cross court passes become longer leading to more turnovers and more time to recover on ball reversals leading to less wide open threes
 
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