2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Need to have Milan and Curt both in the floor at the same time then rather than Curt subbing in for Milan and vice versa. Can't put the best defender on both of them.
I bet we see a lot of that next year. Not sure who I'd want to pull off the floor to make this happen a lot this season. Tre or Gilbert? I like the rotation TJ has going. Seems to be working fine.
 
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Tamin having to sit for that TCU game may have been the best thing that could have happened to this team. As the third guard coming off the bench I think Curtis was deferring and being tentative. Starting when Tamin was out made him realize that he needed to be aggressive and contribute.

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”
--- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto
Oooh, that is an excellent point that I missed - those 7 games started with the TCU game that he replaced Tamin in the starting line-up
 
I bet we see a lot of that next year. Not sure who I'd want to pull off the floor to make this happen a lot this season. Tre or Gilbert? I like the rotation TJ has going. Seems to be working fine.
Interesting that TJ referred to Milan as a guard last night in the postgame, which basically means a starting lineup of Tamin, Keshon, Curt and Milan (with big to be named later) is effectively a four guard lineup (with good size too).
 
Need to have Milan and Curt both in the floor at the same time then rather than Curt subbing in for Milan and vice versa. Can't put the best defender on both of them.
Milan plays 35 mins and C Jones 30 so they're on the floor a lot together. Curtis comes in with Hasan for BRE and Tre and Milan moves to the 4. Then Watson subs for Gilbert or Lipsey and C Jones moves to the 2 and Milan back to the 3. They are both playing starter minutes.
 
Interesting that TJ referred to Milan as a guard last night in the postgame, which basically means a starting lineup of Tamin, Keshon, Curt and Milan (with big to be named later) is effectively a four guard lineup (with good size too).
I'm not sure how they decide to designate the players. BRE is listed as a Forward. Is it coaches and players discretion?
 
Pretty sure most opposing teams have singled out Milan as a focus of their defense in the last several games, and while I definitely see why they would do that, it's certainly not working out overall for them.
Well, instead of having basically 1 guy who can score this team has OPTIONS.
2 years ago, you had Brockington, and you could HOPE that Gabe or Grill would get hot.
Last year, you had to hope TWO of Gabe, Holmes, Grill would get hot.

Now, you have 3 guards that can all drive AND shoot the 3 reasonably well. Any of them can put up 20 points in a game. Plus the bigs are better offensively, so you can't just ignore them.

Milan is a sexy piece to focus on, because he is the best 3pt shooter and has the Dirk fade, but this team has much more dangerous options that past years.
 
I'm not sure how they decide to designate the players. BRE is listed as a Forward. Is it coaches and players discretion?
I don't think there are any rules on that and frankly it doesn't really matter. I don't think we have a true center on this team with Hason and BRE both being forwards. Milan and Watson are both flexible being able to play both a guard or forward role. It is probably best for Milan for TJ to call him a guard since that will be his role at the next level.

As a side note I remember back with the Fizer/Tinsley team one broadcast was hell bent on the standard G/G/F/F/C lineup so they listed Tinsley and Nurse as guards, Horton and Johnson as forwards and Fizer as a center when they were actually G/G/G/F/F. By number those guys would have been 1, 2, 2, 3, 4. And Stevie arrived at ISU as a 2.

Edit: Correction - We don't have a true center that plays. I think Rock is a center. I don't think I would even stretch Omaha as a center.
 
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Well, instead of having basically 1 guy who can score this team has OPTIONS.
2 years ago, you had Brockington, and you could HOPE that Gabe or Grill would get hot.
Last year, you had to hope TWO of Gabe, Holmes, Grill would get hot.

Now, you have 3 guards that can all drive AND shoot the 3 reasonably well. Any of them can put up 20 points in a game. Plus the bigs are better offensively, so you can't just ignore them.

Milan is a sexy piece to focus on, because he is the best 3pt shooter and has the Dirk fade, but this team has much more dangerous options that past years.
You forgot Kunz who could do some nice things as well but unfortunately was undersized in his position.
The big thing here is King, Lipsey, BRE, and Ward all leveled up this year while the pieces we brought in were by and large upgrades for those graduated.
 
Not sure, but I would imagine so. Milan really plays as much like a guard as a forward, and he is slotted in the 3, so it kind of makes sense.
I consider him a stretch 4 or a big wing. Not sure I'd want him handling the ball on a press.
 
You forgot Kunz who could do some nice things as well but unfortunately was undersized in his position.
The big thing here is King, Lipsey, BRE, and Ward all leveled up this year while the pieces we brought in were by and large upgrades for those graduated.

Really every rotational piece has been marginally if not significantly upgraded.

Lipsey is a better version of himself at PG. Gilbert is a much better backup PG than Holmes.

Gilbert and C. Jones are just about as good as Kalscheur (the guy was second-team all-Big 12 for a reason, brought it every night on defense even if he could be somewhat inconsistent on offense) and much better and more consistent than Grill (very mercurial) and Holmes (inefficient) as SGs. Plus, you have another bench depth guard in Paveletzke for emergencies that the team last season simply didn't have (and missed late).

Milan simply wasn't a type of player the team last year had on the roster. He's a mismatch nightmare and always a threat to score -- teams are scheming to take him away nowadays, but that is just opening up the rest of the court for everybody else for the other guards and big men to punish them.

There probably isn't a Kunc equivalent on this team, but I don't think one is really needed with all the upgrades elsewhere. Watson is somewhat that (at least on defense) as the rangy stopper.

R. Jones, King, and Ward are all *MUCH* better versions of themselves this year. Pre-knee injury Osunniyi would probably be on that tier, but he was hurt for half the Big 12 slate and thus diminished.

The only guy off the team last year that I'd probably even want this year would be Kalscheur. Can't have too many quality guards in college basketball. But it's not like a pressing need with Gilbert/Jones around.
 
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I consider him a stretch 4 or a big wing. Not sure I'd want him handling the ball on a press.

An offseason in the weight room should help that. He's got a good handle, but can get pushed around pretty easily. Once he gets more man muscles, he will be out of this world.
 
Got the green checkmark on making the tournament...

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It might require a stumble from one of the higher teams (and especially Houston if Iowa State were to become the perceived alpha dog in the Big 12) , but a #1 seed is within reach...

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Just for fun winning out...

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The next two games are HUGE in this race...

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Ugh, I don't like Omaha lol

But I did look into reserving a hotel and the free cancellation using points is March 6 and if paying the old fashioned way it is February 19. Bonkers.
 
Really every rotational piece has been marginally if not significantly upgraded.

Lipsey is a better version of himself at PG. Gilbert is a much better backup PG than Holmes.

Gilbert and C. Jones are just about as good as Kalscheur (the guy was second-team all-Big 12 for a reason, brought it every night on defense even if he could be somewhat inconsistent on offense) and much better and more consistent than Grill (very mercurial) and Holmes (inefficient) as SGs. Plus, you have another bench depth guard in Paveletzke for emergencies that the team last season simply didn't have (and missed late).

Milan simply wasn't a type of player the team last year had on the roster. He's a mismatch nightmare and always a threat to score -- teams are scheming to take him away nowadays, but that is just opening up the rest of the court for everybody else for the other guards and big men to punish them.

There probably isn't a Kunc equivalent on this team, but I don't think one is really needed with all the upgrades elsewhere. Watson is somewhat that (at least on defense) as the rangy stopper.

R. Jones, King, and Ward are all *MUCH* better versions of themselves this year. Pre-knee injury Osunniyi would probably be on that tier, but he was hurt for half the Big 12 slate and thus diminished.

The only guy off the team last year that I'd probably even want this year would be Kalscheur. Can't have too many quality guards in college basketball. But it's not like a pressing need with Gilbert/Jones around.
Good analysis. My only issue with Gabe is he was wildly inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor game to game. Gabe either had a great offensive game or a poor offensive game. There was rarely a middle ground.

This team is much more balanced. ISU had four players score double figures last night, and one of those wasn't our best pure shooter. I'll take a balanced attack on offense over relying on one or two players to score like the last couple ISU teams
 
Ugh, I don't like Omaha lol

But I did look into reserving a hotel and the free cancellation using points is March 6 and if paying the old fashioned way it is February 19. Bonkers.
I'd get tickets now. I was able to find both sessions on Thursday for about 80 bucks each yesterday. I went back and looked last night after the game and there were fewer overall seats available.
 
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Good analysis. My only issue with Gabe is he was wildly inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor game to game. Gabe either had a great offensive game or a poor offensive game. There was rarely a middle ground.

This team is much more balanced. ISU had four players score double figures last night, and one of those wasn't our best pure shooter. I'll take a balanced attack on offense over relying on one or two players to score like the last couple ISU teams

If Kalscheur were on this team, I don't think his usage would be all that high.

He'd fold into the guard rotation to lighten the load on Lipsey, Gilbert, and Jones, shaving a few minutes each off them and probably eliminating the few that Paveletzke and Watson are playing.

He wouldn't hunt his shot as much because he wouldn't need to with so much more offensive talent and flow around him. He could just bring it on defense -- something he always did -- and let whatever level of offense come to him but really mostly defer to the other guards to take most of those shots.

He had to force it last year so much because frankly there wasn't much else going on.

Even then he was still pretty good -- again, second-team all-Big 12 is an accomplishment.
 
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The other thing about last year's team - and really the only area that they were significantly better than this year's - is that they were a sneakily REALLY good rebounding team. Top 25 in offensive rebounds and Top 10 in defensive rebounding (I don't have kenpom right now, so I can't confirm with that data). This team is okay - but more middle of the pack for Big XII
 

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