2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[4theCYcle]

Couldn't agree more. But, I wonder where Gabe would find minutes when noting the efficiency of Jones, the ball handling of Gilbert, and the mismatch that is Milan and more below

One difference I note is Curtis and Keshon help to keep the opposing offense out to 20-25+ feet from the basket and kalscheur/Holmes/kunz couldn't really help with that. Teams were able to attack us from closer in a year ago. This helps us trap as the cross court passes become longer leading to more turnovers and more time to recover on ball reversals leading to less wide open threes

To also couple your post with the fact that when CJ and Gilbert spell Lipsey's minutes due to rest or foul trouble, there is little to no drop-off of offensive production and those lull's in scoring or droughts don't last as long. I kept getting that ill feeling last night that Cincy would close in and come back like they've done to other teams since being at home and Cincy couldn't get any closer than 6-7 points. Even did it to Houston. Says a lot about this team and their grit and turning the corner on the road. That's what dominant teams do at the top of leagues and KU's done in the past.

 

[nrg4isu]

Do the same thing next year with 2 big, strong paint enforcer transfers and we'll be set

Just send the checks to WW, make it out to "Bagman Blum".

 

[8bitnes]

To also couple your post with the fact that when CJ and Gilbert spell Lipsey's minutes due to rest or foul trouble, there is little to no drop-off of offensive production and those lull's in scoring or droughts don't last as long. I kept getting that ill feeling last night that Cincy would close in and come back like they've done to other teams since being at home and Cincy couldn't get any closer than 6-7 points. Even did it to Houston. Says a lot about this team and their grit and turning the corner on the road. That's what dominant teams do at the top of leagues and KU's done in the past.

Great point, the scoring droughts this year are very rare events. Last year, one could almost count on an 8-minute stretch where we'd score 2 points

 

[Sigmapolis]

Are you able to make projections on the final chart? I'd be curious how dramatically the top two would shift if we win against Tech and @houston. I'd assume we'd become the heavy favorites at that point?

I can't find a way to force certain game outcomes on Torvik and then recalculate the conference odds. You can do that for its bracketology, but not for who is going to win the Big 12.

@Dale has a way to simulate this.

Couldn't agree more. But, I wonder where Gabe would find minutes when noting the efficiency of Jones, the ball handling of Gilbert, and the mismatch that is Milan and more below

One difference I note is Curtis and Keshon help to keep the opposing offense out to 20-25+ feet from the basket and kalscheur/Holmes/kunz couldn't really help with that. Teams were able to attack us from closer in a year ago. This helps us trap as the cross court passes become longer leading to more turnovers and more time to recover on ball reversals leading to less wide open threes

Gabe would be the best perimeter defender on this team (Gilbert and Jones are closer to him than were Grill and Holmes last year, but Gave would still be better) and, again, won second-team All-Big 12 honors. He'd find some minutes if only so you can always have 3/4 of these guys defending...

Cryer / Lipsey
Shead / Kalscheur
Sharp / Gilbert

...rotating Jones in for the one on the bench.

So, yeah, Gabe would be finding 25+ MPG if he were still on the team. Trim four each off the other three main guards and leave Pav and Watson and the bench and you have it carved out for him.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Yeah, but his turnaround step back shot in the lane is almost dang near money all the time.

I bet we have about a hundred down-two plays running off that. If they leave him to it, he's going to beat them, so where is the help going to come from and what opportunities does that give us?

 

[alarson]

Great point, the scoring droughts this year are very rare events. Last year, one could almost count on an 8-minute stretch where we'd score 2 points

We were kind of there the first 7-8 minutes of last night it felt like. We still scored some points but given the amount of extra possessions we were gaining it certainly felt like a drought still. A team in the hoiberg/Prohm era probably comes in and starts that game down double digits and spends the rest of the night digging back out, maybe squeaking it out at the end.

 

[AuH2O]

Milan plays 35 mins and C Jones 30 so they're on the floor a lot together. Curtis comes in with Hasan for BRE and Tre and Milan moves to the 4. Then Watson subs for Gilbert or Lipsey and C Jones moves to the 2 and Milan back to the 3. They are both playing starter minutes.

More of this lineup seems to be happening, and might also be the way to get Milan some more clean looks. It seems like early in the conference season TJ was maxing out Tre's mins with Watson playing a few mins to spell him.

I like this approach of playing C. Jones big minutes, keep King a little more fresh by keeping his minutes just a little bit lighter, and play Watson spot/situational defense minutes. When TJ puts Lipsey, Gilbert and Curt on the floor at the same time, it pretty much is insane if the other team tries to press. Having those three guys in at the same time will eat up any press.

The half court trap caught our guys off guard a bit, but after a couple times I think ISU got a bucket after Gilbert split a trap.

 

[8bitnes]

I can't find a way to force certain game outcomes on Torvik and then recalculate the conference odds. You can do that for its bracketology, but not for who is going to win the Big 12.

@Dale has a way to simulate this.



Gabe would be the best perimeter defender on this team (Gilbert and Jones are closer to him than were Grill and Holmes last year, but Gave would still be better) and, again, won second-team All-Big 12 honors. He's find some minutes if only so you can always have 3/4 of these guys defending...

Cryer / Lipsey
Shead / Kalscheur
Sharp / Gilbert

...rotating Jones in for the one on the bench.

So, yeah, Gabe would be finding 25+ MPG if he were still on the team. Trim four each off the other three main guards and leave Pav and Watson and the bench and you have it carved out for him.

But where is Milan in that rotation? He plays the 4 sparingly right now. I'd rather have his scoring threat than Gabe bc Milan isn't giving up that much on the defensive end.

Might just be easier to say, both are nice pieces and enjoy the ride

 

[Cyclonepride]

I can't find a way to force certain game outcomes on Torvik and then recalculate the conference odds. You can do that for its bracketology, but not for who is going to win the Big 12.

@Dale has a way to simulate this.



Gabe would be the best perimeter defender on this team (Gilbert and Jones are closer to him than were Grill and Holmes last year, but Gave would still be better) and, again, won second-team All-Big 12 honors. He's find some minutes if only so you can always have 3/4 of these guys defending...

Cryer / Lipsey
Shead / Kalscheur
Sharp / Gilbert

...rotating Jones in for the one on the bench.

So, yeah, Gabe would be finding 25+ MPG if he were still on the team. Trim four each off the other three main guards and leave Pav and Watson and the bench and you have it carved out for him.

Yeah, I think what makes this year's guards so effective defensively is the cohesiveness of all the parts. Tossing Gabe into that would only make it better (assuming cohesiveness continues)

 

[Statefan10]

We were kind of there the first 7-8 minutes of last night it felt like. We still scored some points but given the amount of extra possessions we were gaining it certainly felt like a drought still. A team in the hoiberg/Prohm era probably comes in and starts that game down double digits and spends the rest of the night digging back out, maybe squeaking it out at the end.

I've noticed that with this year's team and what I would presume the rest of TJ's career, Hilton Magic will be more of us hitting big shots with the lead rather than us playing from behind and needing every shot to fall.

 

[Cyientist]

Really every rotational piece has been marginally if not significantly upgraded.

Lipsey is a better version of himself at PG. Gilbert is a much better backup PG than Holmes.

Gilbert and C. Jones are just about as good as Kalscheur (the guy was second-team all-Big 12 for a reason, brought it every night on defense even if he could be somewhat inconsistent on offense) and much better and more consistent than Grill (very mercurial) and Holmes (inefficient) as SGs. Plus, you have another bench depth guard in Paveletzke for emergencies that the team last season simply didn't have (and missed late).

Milan simply wasn't a type of player the team last year had on the roster. He's a mismatch nightmare and always a threat to score -- teams are scheming to take him away nowadays, but that is just opening up the rest of the court for everybody else for the other guards and big men to punish them.

There probably isn't a Kunc equivalent on this team, but I don't think one is really needed with all the upgrades elsewhere. Watson is somewhat that (at least on defense) as the rangy stopper.

R. Jones, King, and Ward are all *MUCH* better versions of themselves this year. Pre-knee injury Osunniyi would probably be on that tier, but he was hurt for half the Big 12 slate and thus diminished.

The only guy off the team last year that I'd probably even want this year would be Kalscheur. Can't have too many quality guards in college basketball. But it's not like a pressing need with Gilbert/Jones around.

By this time last year teams weren’t even guarding Lipsey. He has jumped so much. I feel like he is going to get back to an upper 70s FT % down the stretch too.

 

[4theCYcle]

We were kind of there the first 7-8 minutes of last night it felt like. We still scored some points but given the amount of extra possessions we were gaining it certainly felt like a drought still. A team in the hoiberg/Prohm era probably comes in and starts that game down double digits and spends the rest of the night digging back out, maybe squeaking it out at the end.

Yeah, I was a little nervous they weren't going to come out of that lull slow start. Having that many TOs and being down by a couple points, was just like oh well this is going to be an off shooting night...then they started seeing them fall.

 

[FerShizzle]

Do the same thing next year with 2 big, strong paint enforcer transfers and we'll be set

Bigs are way more in demand in the NIL market than guards. Not saying ISU can’t attract some good ones and getting 2 bigs will definitely be the focus, but I expect them to get at least 1 that has multiple years of eligibility and needs further development like Rob. There is a mile of difference between year 1 Rob and year 3 Rob.

 

[Sigmapolis]

But where is Milan in that rotation? He plays the 4 sparingly right now. I'd rather have his scoring threat than Gabe bc Milan isn't giving up that much on the defensive end.

Might just be easier to say, both are nice pieces and enjoy the ride

Just making up something like this...

 

[8bitnes]

Just making up something like this...

View attachment 123924

As assumed, that puts Milan at the 4 for 20 of his 30 minutes and would change our offensive looks. He's probably playing the 4 about 7 minutes a game right now

 

[clone37]

Not sure why ESPN doesn't flex their schedules much. Looking to next Monday, ISU-Houston is the early game on ESPNU, while Texas-Kstate is the Big Monday game on ESPN. Makes no sense.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Bigs are way more in demand in the NIL market than guards. Not saying ISU can’t attract some good ones and getting 2 bigs will definitely be the focus, but I expect them to get at least 1 that has multiple years of eligibility and needs further development like Rob. There is a mile of difference between year 1 Rob and year 3 Rob.

I hope they can just copy-paste Osunniyi and Ward and be done with it.

I know we can't offer the same $$$ as others but I'd hope the combination of connection with the staff, a guy wanting to be in Iowa/the Midwest, plenty of minutes to showcase yourself on a burgeoning program, the chances to play with some ace guards, and a chance to win big games would be enough to induce a guy to take less money for a better opportunity and to be part of a winning program now.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Bigs are way more in demand in the NIL market than guards. Not saying ISU can’t attract some good ones and getting 2 bigs will definitely be the focus, but I expect them to get at least 1 that has multiple years of eligibility and needs further development like Rob. There is a mile of difference between year 1 Rob and year 3 Rob.

Basically the Ward/Qsun plan of last year.

It won't be easy to get a impactful Center in the portal but ISU will be attractive having good guard play and immediate to showcase their play week 1. NIL will be a factor but I think TJ can sell a competitive number with improving the players potential pro prospects to get his top target that fits the culture. If a guy is only looking for the most NIL I don't think the staff will pursue them anyways.

 

[wing59]

Just making up something like this...

View attachment 123924

No Pav or Watson? That’s not happening. I loved Gabe but I don’t like your idea.

 

[nrg4isu]

Not sure why ESPN doesn't flex their schedules much. Looking to next Monday, ISU-Houston is the early game on ESPNU, while Texas-Kstate is the Big Monday game on ESPN. Makes no sense.

If I'm Brett Yormark, I'm making a call to ESPN and making a suggestion. Mutually beneficial.