2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

For my money you can probably consolidate to 5 tiers:

Houston


Baylor
Iowa St.
Texas Tech
Kansas
BYU
Oklahoma


Cincinnati
TCU
Texas
Kansas St.


UCF
Oklahoma St.


West Virginia
I guess I'd put Kansas in the Houston tier until proven otherwise

But the other 9 in the next two tiers will sort out quite a bit over the next month. There will likely be a strong second tier (hopefully that absorbs KU) and probably one or two that don't hold up and miss the tourney.

I'm specifically not sold on Cincy, BYU, Tech and KSU at this point.
 
The analytics engines just don't "love" the Jayhawks this year -- if "loving" them would be putting them in the top five in the country rather than in the ~15-20 range that most of them have.

Torvik has Houston a mile ahead of everybody on defense (the bright red dot at the top of the scatter) and Baylor ahead of everybody on offense (the green one off to the right on its own). Kansas is the light blue dot in the middle. Iowa State is the dark red one right above the Lawrence Beakers.

View attachment 121977

I get it -- they're good. Dickinson is a stud. Bill Self has done this so many times before it is hard to bet against them. But this doesn't look to be one of their more powerful teams so far, and Houston is a strong challenger to their rule they haven't seen in some time despite their rather enjoyable loss last night.

Torvik really doesn't think KU is bringing home a Big 12 banner this year, though...

View attachment 121979

Some very clear tiers in the conference right now...

View attachment 121980

GOD TIER
---
Houston

EXCELLENT TIER
---
Baylor
Iowa State
Texas Tech
Kansas
BYU

TWEENER TIER
---
Oklahoma

VERY GOOD TIER
---
Cincinnati
TCU
Texas
Kansas State

MEH
---
UCF

BAD
---
Oklahoma State

AWFUL
---
West Virginia
With all due respect to metrics, have you seen their resume? They have the best tournament resume in college bb right now. As long as they go around 12-6 they'll be a top 8 seed.
 
I had to go look it up, but that was Caleb Asberry. He was a one-and-done grad transfer last year

Thank you. He was a good player and evidently a good instigator, too.

Glad he's done. Played a year of JUCO ball before...

1704926734501.png
 
What was it when the score was 14-0?
(Serious question.)

At 14:20 in the first Tre King made a layup for the Cyclones to go up 14-0.

Win expectation at that point was 44.9% for Iowa State.

Yes, the computer still thought Houston was a 55-45 favorite down 14 with 34:20 left.

That's how much the computer rankings liked Houston going into this game.

And I don't disagree with them... that's a great team. The Cyclones were just slightly better last night.
 
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@rosshm16

How ya feelin' about KU after losing to UCF?

I'll take this moment to say something nice about the Golden Knights. They don't suck. They're not a good team and will finish near the bottom of the conference, but they're not pushovers. As bad as the new adds were in football last season, all four of them look to be good or better basketball adds.
 
@rosshm16

How ya feelin' about KU after losing to UCF?

I'll take this moment to say something nice about the Golden Knights. They don't suck. They're not a good team and will finish near the bottom of the conference, but they're not pushovers. As bad as the new adds were in football last season, all four of them look to be good or better basketball adds.

I saw the ending of that game and had to laugh. A coworker of mine didn’t believe me when I said the computers do not like KU this year. “But they’re #3 in the country!” … looking forward to the discussion about the UCF game tomorrow!
 
Human polls are stupid like that.

"Team lost must drop derp."

Torvik and the other models are saying something much more accurate -- great team lost to a very good team on the road in a very close game. It speaks well of both these teams really.

Anyways, on with the show...

View attachment 121953
Agree and felt the same way after game Saturday. We lose a close one to #11 in the road. Says to me we’re a top 20 team and last night reinforced that.
 
@rosshm16

How ya feelin' about KU after losing to UCF?

I'll take this moment to say something nice about the Golden Knights. They don't suck. They're not a good team and will finish near the bottom of the conference, but they're not pushovers. As bad as the new adds were in football last season, all four of them look to be good or better basketball adds.
I love when KU loses, it brings me great joy. They would be 0-2 if there was any justice in this world.
 
I love when KU loses, it brings me great joy. They would be 0-2 if there was any justice in this world.
Agreed. This has been a trend, but their bench is non-existent so far this year, specifically they have absolutely no size. Christian Braun's big brother is the only pseudo-post player that plays off the bench, and he's not very big.

Timberlake, the super Sr transfer from Towson, was supposed to be their scorer off the bench, but he's averaging < 4 ppg and shooting 27% from 3.

One other thought - winning at home and beating the "lower tier" teams is going to be hugely important for seeding in the BigXII tourney. Clones gotta take care of business on Saturday, then I think they have a chance to pick off one of the two road games next week.
 
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Agreed. This has been a trend, but their bench is non-existent so far this year, specifically they have absolutely no size. Christian Braun's big brother is the only pseudo-post player that plays off the bench, and he's not very big.

Timberlake, the super Sr transfer from Towson, was supposed to be their scorer off the bench, but he's averaging < 4 ppg and shooting 27% from 3.

One other thought - winning at home and beating the "lower tier" teams is going to be hugely important for seeding in the BigXII tourney. Clones gotta take care of business on Saturday, then I think they have a chance to pick off one of the two road games next week.
Getting a top 10 seed to avoid playing on Tuesday is big. Getting a top 6 seed to avoid playing a fresh team on Wednesday is even bigger. Top 4 seeds only have to win 3 (rather than 4 or 5) to win it all. Yes, seeding is so much more important than it was in previous years.
 
I love when KU loses, it brings me great joy. They would be 0-2 if there was any justice in this world.
I bet they thought they could just waltz into Orlando and win going away based on reputation and ranking - and the low expectations for UCF.

Any loss for KU is big because at some point when the race tightens up and they start peaking - the rest of 'us' in the conference will LOVE having that extra game in their "L" column. Especially when Big XII officiating decides so many close games in their favor.
 

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