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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Cyclonepride said:
Pretty sure most opposing teams have singled out Milan as a focus of their defense in the last several games, and while I definitely see why they would do that, it's certainly not working out overall for them.
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Being our best shooter, it does make sense though. They are just too balanced as a team right now to just shut down one guy and hope it works.
 
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Sigmapolis said:
If you go by the Torvik analytics and assume Iowa State defeats UConn then...

OFF RTG / DEF RTG / NET RTG
Assuming 75 possessions per game

Iowa St. = 119.1 / 99.5 / +19.6
Michigan St. = 120.1 / 96.0 / +24.1
Florida = 116.4 / 89.1 / +27.3
Kentucky = 117.7 / 96.9 / +20.8

Michigan St. is probably favored by 3 or 4.

Florida is probably favored by 5 or 6.

Kentucky is probably favored around 1.

I know the "that team wins a national title if Georges doesn't break his foot" narrative is a fun one. But that team doesn't have the analytics profile of a national champion. Something like top 50 on offense and defense is prerequisite for consideration, and Iowa State was #11 on offense and #72 on defense.

The likely outcome is one of those teams find a way to slow down the Cyclone offense just enough and bullies them on defense and on the boards and that's all she wrote for that enjoyable team. It's not like Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, and John Calipari aren't legends who could have matched X/O wits with Fred.

In some ways Georges breaking his foot was the best possible thing that could happen to that team's reputation. It'll always be a "what if" story of tantalizing possibilities instead of a mundane reality. You can't say that team probably wasn't good enough because it never had a fair chance to see if it was.
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Pfft, ;)
 
Cyclonepride said:
Pretty sure most opposing teams have singled out Milan as a focus of their defense in the last several games, and while I definitely see why they would do that, it's certainly not working out overall for them.
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Agreed. Milan also looked tentative last night IMHO. I recall a sequence in the second half where he had an open look for a three but paused, the defender then closed on him, and he eventually turned it over. BRE was seen talking to Milan as they went down the court.

Milan just didn't look comfortable on the offensive end last night. But credit Cincy defense for making him uncomfortable
 
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Cyhig said:
Agreed. Milan also looked tentative last night IMHO. I recall a sequence in the second half where he had an open look for a three but paused, the defender then closed on him, and he eventually turned it over. BRE was seen talking to Milan as they went down the court.

Milan just didn't look comfortable on the offensive end last night. But credit Cincy defense for making him uncomfortable
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That's usually what will happen when opposing defenses prioritize you. Even when you're open, you hesitate because you're somewhat surprised that you are (our defense relies on that concept a lot).
 
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After next week's midweek games all teams will have played the same number of games.

Big 12 Conference Standings
Team...W/L... %.....TF.....GB
1. ISU...8-3... .727...+3...X (ISU beat UH @ ISU. They will meet @ UH Monday.)
2. UH...8-3... .727...+3...0
3. BU...7-4... .636...+1...1 (BU beat TTU @ BU. They will meet @ TTU 09 MAR
4. TTU...7-4... .636...+1...1
------------------------- Top 4 teams get a double bye in Big 12 Tourney (Thur).
5. KU...7-5... .583...+1...1.5
6. BYU...6-5... .545...0...2 (BYU has tiebreak for win over #1 ISU. TCU plays @ BYU 02 MAR, their only matchup)
------------------------- Teams 5-6 opponents played the night before.
7. TCU...6-5... .545...0...2
8. OU...6-6... .500...0...2.5
9. KSU...5-6... .455...0...3
10. UT...5-6... .455...-1...3
------------------------- Teams 5-10 get a bye in Big 12 Tourney (Wed).
11. UCF...4-7... .364...-1...4
12. UC...4-7... .364...-2...4
13. WVU...3-8... .273...-2...5
14. OSU...2-9... .182...-3...6
------------------------- Teams 11-14 play on Tuesday in Big 12 Tourney.

Remaining games for ISU:
Date..B12 Rank..Team..NET
S 17 FEB - 4 TTU (Q1b)
M 19 FEB - @ 2 UH (Q1a)
S 24 FEB - 13 WVU (Q3)
W 28 FEB - 8 OU (Q2a)
S 02 MAR - @ 11 UCF (Q1b)
W 06 MAR - 6 BYU (Q1a)
S 09 MAR - @ 9 KSU (Q2a)

Note: If the Big 12 uses a similar but expanded format next year 9-16 would play on Tuesday, 5-8 would get a single bye (all playing an opponent who played the night before), and 1-4 would get a double bye.
 
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bawbie said:
Another shoutout to Curtis Jones. In the first 4 conference games, he scored 12 total points. Since then he's scored at least 11 in each game.

Minutes/g2pt FG%2pt Att/g3pt FG%3pt Att/gFT%FT Att/gAssistsStealsTurnoversPoints/g
First 423.830%2.522.2%2.3N/A011523.0
Last 729.661.3%4.535.7%685%2.91314412.1

He's really covered for Milan's drop in output the last several games
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Tamin having to sit for that TCU game may have been the best thing that could have happened to this team. As the third guard coming off the bench I think Curtis was deferring and being tentative. Starting when Tamin was out made him realize that he needed to be aggressive and contribute.

“I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”
--- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto
 
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CoachHines3 said:
Opponents have scouted him pretty well as of late
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I have to see a little silver lining in this. I was seriously concerned Milan would be a one and done the way he played early on. He has a bit to work on which makes me think he'll be back next season. That and prioritizing him leaves others open. We have a lot of weapons and can beat other teams a multitude of ways. We're stacked!
 
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Cyhig said:
Agreed. Milan also looked tentative last night IMHO. I recall a sequence in the second half where he had an open look for a three but paused, the defender then closed on him, and he eventually turned it over. BRE was seen talking to Milan as they went down the court.

Milan just didn't look comfortable on the offensive end last night. But credit Cincy defense for making him uncomfortable
Click to expand...

He was flustered after making some bad turnovers in the 1st half. Fortunately, Curtis Jones has stepped up as defensive game plans continue to key on taking away Milan.

I'd be interested to see the numbers on Milan shooting open threes vs contested. It anecdotally feels like he is elite when open but struggles to hit threes when guarded. This is something I think he can improve on as he gets better, stronger, more comfortable.
 
VeloClone said:
After Saturday all teams will have played the same number of games.

Big 12 Conference Standings
Team...W/L... %.....TF.....GB
1. ISU...8-3... .727...+3...X (ISU beat UH @ ISU. They will meet @ UH Monday.)
2. UH...8-3... .727...+3...0
3. BU...7-4... .636...+1...1 (BU beat TTU @ BU. They will meet @ TTU 09 MAR
4. TTU...7-4... .636...+1...1
------------------------- Top 4 teams get a double bye in Big 12 Tourney (Thur).
5. KU...7-5... .583...+1...1.5
6. BYU...6-5... .545...0...2 (BYU has tiebreak for win over #1 ISU. TCU plays @ BYU 02 MAR)
------------------------- Teams 5-6 opponents played the night before.
7. TCU...6-5... .545...0...2
8. OU...6-6... .500...0...2.5
9. KSU...5-6... .455...0...3
10. UT...5-6... .455...-1...3
------------------------- Teams 5-10 get a bye in Big 12 Tourney (Wed).
11. UCF...4-7... .364...-1...4
12. UC...4-7... .364...-2...4
13. WVU...3-8... .273...-2...5
14. OSU...2-9... .182...-3...6
------------------------- Teams 11-14 play on Tuesday in Big 12 Tourney.

Remaining games for ISU:
Date..B12 Rank..Team..NET
S 17 FEB - 4 TTU (Q1b)
M 19 FEB - @ 2 UH (Q1a)
S 24 FEB - 13 WVU (Q3)
W 28 FEB - 8 OU (Q2a)
S 02 MAR - @ 11 UCF (Q1b)
W 06 MAR - 6 BYU (Q1a)
S 09 MAR - @ 9 KSU (Q2a)

Note: If the Big 12 uses a similar but expanded format next year 9-16 would play on Tuesday, 5-8 would get a single bye (all playing an opponent who played the night before), and 1-4 would get a double bye.
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What?! That KSU game is a Q2? Those dirty *******. They are doing this on purpose.
 
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singsing said:
I have to see a little silver lining in this. I was seriously concerned Milan would be a one and done the way he played early on. He has a bit to work on which makes me think he'll be back next season. That and prioritizing him leaves others open. We have a lot of weapons and can beat other teams a multitude of ways. We're stacked!
Click to expand...
Yeah, it definitely changes a defense when there's a guy that you hesitate to help off of. Opens up the middle nicely and we can game plan around that.
 
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Cyclonepride said:
Pretty sure most opposing teams have singled out Milan as a focus of their defense in the last several games, and while I definitely see why they would do that, it's certainly not working out overall for them.
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Need to have Milan and Curt both in the floor at the same time then rather than Curt subbing in for Milan and vice versa. Can't put the best defender on both of them.
 
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CyPunch said:
Right on the cusp. KState is currently #77 and needs to be #75 to move to Quad 1.

I don't have a lot of faith in them turning it around and making the tourney. Remaining schedule is difficult.
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But I could see them playing out of their minds in their last conference game just to upset ISU's apple cart.
 
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