49ers - Brock Purdy - Still and Always #1

Guys like McShay are looking for physical traits. Combine guys. He never really played did he? At least not at high levels. He was a "self described draft expert." He had an internet forum where he would rate guys. Mostly on height, weight, speed, strength and so on. He's obsessed with that stuff.

He doesn't see the mental aspect and thinks it's not important. It's 90% of the important stuff at QB. The processing, going through reads and progressions, throwing with timing and anticipation, throwing with excellent mechanics and accuracy. You can have physical traits and be missing those. Which are more important at QB. Brock is an expert in the mental aspect of the game. QB's and ex QB's see it. Offensive coordinators like Martz see it and compliment him a lot.

McShay is simply wrong and drastically wrong. It's actually outlandish.

It will take league MVP and a Super Bowl win to end this nonsense. Which is why I hope that happens.
 
And it isn't like Dak was a top 10 pick. He was picked at the end of the 4th round. He had to silence some doubters as well. I know people like to hate on the Cowboys, I get it. But Dak is one of the most scrutinized players in the NFL - Cowboys starting QBs always are - and he has handled it well.
Ya and I would say Dak is a very similar QB to Brock. Brock is having a better year and certainly deserves it.
 
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And it isn't like Dak was a top 10 pick. He was picked at the end of the 4th round. He had to silence some doubters as well. I know people like to hate on the Cowboys, I get it. But Dak is one of the most scrutinized players in the NFL - Cowboys starting QBs always are - and he has handled it well.
Romo was an undrafted free agent from an FCS school and same thing pretty much happened to him.
 
I'm pretty sure this is what BWR was saying above. He wasn't saying that watching Brock play is boring but it doesn't have the wow factor that a lot of the more athletic QBs have. We all know it is better to have a QB that does all of the right things so he doesn't have to continually make all of those wow plays with his feet but for the uninitiated or unknowledgeable fan it looks better to make a 3 and 11 by scrambling all over rather than making the on target and on time throw that was there because you looked the LB away with your eyes to get him open.

The one that really gets my goat is yards after catch. A QB absolutely contributes to yards after catch:
1. Understanding what defense is doing pre-snap and what you want to do against that look.
2. Understanding what defense is doing post-snap and what you want to do against that scheme.
3. Manipulating defenses with your eyes.
4. Going through progression to find the open player - sometimes 3 or 4 reads deep.
5. Moving within or out of the pocket to buy time for someone to get open while continuing to look to pass rather than run.
6. Make a throw with anticipation and on time.
7. Make a throw accurately so receiver can continue to run at speed and away from defender.
And I will just add this: Seneca Wallace was incredible for Iowa State with some incredible plays both with his arm but especially when things broke down with his feet. But the best game he played as a Cyclone was the game against Baylor where he broke the Big 12 consecutive completions record. The flashy plays were great in the other games, but the "boring" game he was so on there was no drama like that.
 
Guys like McShay are looking for physical traits. Combine guys. He never really played did he? At least not at high levels. He was a "self described draft expert." He had an internet forum where he would rate guys. Mostly on height, weight, speed, strength and so on. He's obsessed with that stuff.

He doesn't see the mental aspect and thinks it's not important. It's 90% of the important stuff at QB. The processing, going through reads and progressions, throwing with timing and anticipation, throwing with excellent mechanics and accuracy. You can have physical traits and be missing those. Which are more important at QB. Brock is an expert in the mental aspect of the game. QB's and ex QB's see it. Offensive coordinators like Martz see it and compliment him a lot.

McShay is simply wrong and drastically wrong. It's actually outlandish.

It will take league MVP and a Super Bowl win to end this nonsense. Which is why I hope that happens.
McShay was wrong, as we all were about Purdy. Good grief, no one is going to roast an NFL draft analyst for saying Purdy wasn't an NFL starting QB.

What kind of mental disorder does someone have where they can't admit to being wrong on something that 99.9% of people were also wrong about, and instead feel the need to dig a deeper hole and throw out complete hypotheticals that will and can never be proven or disproven?

How anybody can watch the NFL draft outside of maybe their team's first pick is beyond me. It might be the dumbest thing related to sports televised. Listening to these guys talk about every pick like it's really smart because it filled a need when half these guys won't start is too much for me. It's not that I dislike Kiper or McShay that much, I just think the "analysis" of these picks is so dumb. I would put good money that their analysis of a player's success has no more correlation to success than simply looking at the spot where a player was picked.


Once you get to the 3rd round or so, the "analysis" for every RB, LB, WR, TE, DB is all the same:

"I really like this pick by the Broncos. Value pick here in the late 5th that addresses a position of need. Talking to GMs for several teams, they all liked him as a guy that could come in and potentially compete for playing time, and certainly help them on special teams."

The alternative analysis is all the same, but replace "...that addresses a position of need" with "...in a position where they don't have a major need but opted to go with the best player available."
 
I think Brock over Lamar is pretty clear, but despite being old Rodgers has a ton of experience at the highest level. He has a lot tricks up his sleeve. I like Brock better but I don't think that is nearly as cut and dried.

For you fellas who know what you're talking about (you watch a ton of NFL football), how much more do you think Brock can develop before his contract comes up for negotiation?

Is he at his peak, or will experience elevate his game even higher? Does he have a glass ceiling?
 
The article I posted of an interview with Brock's quarterback coach, noted the wide open, easy passes were because Brock sold the misdirection so well. That ability is difficult, valuable and very underrated. Brock works on this skill a lot.

The game analyst credited this for the pass to CMC on which he fell down, got up and then scored.

Purdy's ad lib on the roll to his left caused the DB to drop off CMC, BP wasn't sure if CMC was stopping or continuing and tried to split the difference. Voila! It worked.
 
Assuming the 49ers win the Superbowl and Brock is named this season's MVP, I think you could safely say he is unpaid to a greater extent than Brady was 2001.
Kurt Warner 1999. Salary $250k. NFL MVP. SB. MVP. 4300 yards, 41 TD 13 picks

Brady 2001. Salary $298k. SB MVP not in reg season MVP hunt. 2800 yards 18 TD 12 Int.

Warner 2001 $480k salary. Reg season MVP. 4800 yds 36 TD 22 Int.

Warner is the bar, and that’s a hell of a bar for value.
 
Kurt Warner 1999. Salary $250k. NFL MVP. SB. MVP. 4300 yards, 41 TD 13 picks

Brady 2001. Salary $298k. SB MVP not in reg season MVP hunt. 2800 yards 18 TD 12 Int.

Warner 2001 $480k salary. Reg season MVP. 4800 yds 36 TD 22 Int.

Warner is the bar, and that’s a hell of a bar for value.
What percent of the overall salary cap was Warner's 1999 salary compared to Brock's today?
 
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For you fellas who know what you're talking about (you watch a ton of NFL football), how much more do you think Brock can develop before his contract comes up for negotiation?

Is he at his peak, or will experience elevate his game even higher? Does he have a glass ceiling?
That's a hard question to answer. He's already playing very high level. I don't think he develops a massive arm, or loses 2 tenths off his 40 time. Really for him it means consistency which is a lot to ask at current clip.
 
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Kurt Warner 1999. Salary $250k. NFL MVP. SB. MVP. 4300 yards, 41 TD 13 picks

Brady 2001. Salary $298k. SB MVP not in reg season MVP hunt. 2800 yards 18 TD 12 Int.

Warner 2001 $480k salary. Reg season MVP. 4800 yds 36 TD 22 Int.

Warner is the bar, and that’s a hell of a bar for value.
I can't find much NFL QB salary data for seasons prior to 2000.

I believe the degree to which someone is underpaid is a relative sort of thing. In other words, I would compare that person's salary to the highest salary paid to any other player at person's same position.

I'm guessing Mahomes is the top paid QB this season? For 2023, if my math is correct, Brock's salary is approximately 1.6% of Mahomes's salary.

I'd love see how much Warner's $250k salary compares to the highest paid QB salary for 1999.
 
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Kurt Warner 1999. Salary $250k. NFL MVP. SB. MVP. 4300 yards, 41 TD 13 picks

Brady 2001. Salary $298k. SB MVP not in reg season MVP hunt. 2800 yards 18 TD 12 Int.

Warner 2001 $480k salary. Reg season MVP. 4800 yds 36 TD 22 Int.

Warner is the bar, and that’s a hell of a bar for value.
You would have to adjust for cap much lower then. Much higher now. Also inflation and such. Very hard to compare 1999, 2001 with 2023 heading into 2024 soon. Just much different eras in a lot of ways.
 
That's a hard question to answer. He's already playing very high level. I don't think he develops a massive arm, or loses 2 tenths off his 40 time. Really for him it means consistency which is a lot to ask at current clip.
What he does great is processing, reads and progressions, timing and anticipation, throwing with great mechanics accurately to a WR, TE, RB in stride and away from the defender. While he's already great at the in between the ears game there is probably a high likely hood of him improving that some more. Usually the biggest jump in a QB is year 3 or 4. So Brock is early on this. Probably he can get even a little better and stay consistent. He's already playing great.

Physically he has plenty enough arm strength and talent. Enough speed and quickness. But he'll never be Lamar Jackson for speed or the 6'5" 250 lb. bulldozer of Josh Allen who can run people over and stiff arm linebackers. That's fine actually. Brock is great and in a different way. A way that some media and fans don't pick up as much. Because they look for the physically spectacular play.

If he continues on this pace I think you are looking at a Montana like or Brees like player. A processor mostly who understands everything happening out there, knows how to manipulate a defense and throws accurately to spots. Nobody is saying he is that yet. But he's that style of player and has a chance to be great IMO.

:)
 

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