Early season games are weird. Iowa usually feasts on teams early in the year because they have better roster continuity than most teams. Creighton returns a LOT from last year though, so that advantage is pretty much neutralized. The game being away from Carver, where Iowa seems to shoot very well, is also a bit of a concern. That being said, *if* Iowa can shoot it well and *if* Creighton doesn't, I can see the Hawks keeping it close.
I still think a backdoor cover on the +12 is a likely scenario, but it would not shock me to see them keep it within 10 most of the game either.