Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jdoggivjc]

I think it's just more delicate than CU because of that and some other things, not a problem any more than it was a problem for OU to leave OKState behind.

I've been talking to someone connected with AZ and it seems the vast majority of influential forces there are strongly for B12 and have been for quite a while. I think with ASU and Utah the rivalry has gotten in their way to their own detriment. It's not unlike when people force themselves onto opposite sides politically by reflex, sometimes everybody should be on the same side of an issue even if it means getting cozy with rivals.

AZ loves the idea of getting into an elite basketball conference and they lost the one elite hoops conference rival they had. There's nothing holding them back.

If Arizona and ASU share a BOR that's an issue as well. Even if CU and CSU share a BOR CU jumping to the Big 12 doesn't affect CSU in any way. But it would be an issue for Arizona because it would mean separating AZ from ASU... and ASU would likely be left in a rough spot as a result, although it's one of their own making due to their attitude over the last several years. 2 years ago the Big 12 would have easily taken both, but with ASU's attitude they're really not a wanted entity anymore.

 

[HFCS]

Not really a bad look. There are 2 conferences on top, then the rest of us.
It only looks bad for the worst of the leftover conferences. That probably isn't us yet.

I think just the one domino already made it that we're one ACC defection away from guarnateed #3, possibly with a giant gap.

If by some miracle the ACC stayed completely intact you could see their football/basketball cache being worth more than our fb/basketball cache combined but not by a huge margin. It's so far flung that FSU/Clemson will stay long term it's barely worth discussing.

If they lose even one fb power it'd be this B12/Pac12 thing all over and like the Pac they have a lot of programs that just don't bring a real fan base.

 

[HFCS]

If Arizona and ASU share a BOR that's an issue as well. Even if CU and CSU share a BOR CU jumping to the Big 12 doesn't affect CSU in any way. But it would be an issue for Arizona because it would mean separating AZ from ASU... and ASU would likely be left in a rough spot as a result, although it's one of their own making due to their attitude over the last several years. 2 years ago the Big 12 would have easily taken both, but with ASU's attitude they're really not a wanted entity anymore.

The only question in terms of motivation is if ASU is just fibbing to itself they don't want B12 to soften the blow if/when they're left behind. The motivation for AZ is 100% there.

 

[CycloneErik]

I think just the one domino already made it that we're one ACC defection away from guarnateed #3, possibly with a giant gap.

If by some miracle the ACC stayed completely intact you could see their football/basketball cache being worth more than our fb/basketball cache combined but not by a huge margin. It's so far flung that FSU/Clemson will stay long term it's barely worth discussing.

If they lose even one fb power it'd be this B12/Pac12 thing all over and like the Pac they have a lot of programs that just don't bring a real fan base.

Maybe and probably, but maybe.
The names in the ACC might still be better draws, so it's never a guarantee yet.

The conference absolutely isn't falling apart, and we're probably #3. That's pretty good right now.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Same question I have. Why does Arizona have red tape? What is the problem?

I think the only red tape is their admins on the fence seeing an actual tv deal from GK. Once they see the number then they can have their hands 100% clean…”after seeing the numbers we had no choice”. It sounds stupid to us, but we’re not in their shoes.

 

[Gunnerclone]

If Arizona and ASU share a BOR that's an issue as well. Even if CU and CSU share a BOR CU jumping to the Big 12 doesn't affect CSU in any way. But it would be an issue for Arizona because it would mean separating AZ from ASU... and ASU would likely be left in a rough spot as a result, although it's one of their own making due to their attitude over the last several years. 2 years ago the Big 12 would have easily taken both, but with ASU's attitude they're really not a wanted entity anymore.

The AZ President already publicly stated there is no issue with UA and ASU doing different things.

 

[isucy86]

I disagree. Even in streaming, especially for college sporsts, media markets and population matter. You need eyeballs for streaming and the more eyeballs, the more money. College sports is still mostly a regional thing. Also, cable may be going away, but streaming cable is not.

Agree that market size will always matter because a lot of sports fans are casual or by convenience.

I've lived in large metro's like Minneapolis and Denver. When living in those cities, I became a casual Bronco, Buffalo, Rockies, Vikings, Twins, Timberwolves or Gopher fan. I watched because those teams were water cooler or coffee shop conversation.

Also Cable is losing market share, but I haven't seen any article saying it would be much lower than 50%. And to your point, multi-channel streaming platforms operate a lot like cable companies regarding carriage fees.

 

[theshadow]

My understanding is that an odd numbers of members works for an 8 game conference schedule, but not a 9 game schedule. Dropping the 9th conference game impacts the media deal (less $$ for everyone), so it's undesirable.

Anyone better at math back me up on that?

Going from 12/9 to 13/8 is a loss of 2 conference games, and a gain of at least 10 non-conference games (since most of the schools will fill that new spot with a home game).

13/9 isn't possible.

Going from 12/9 to 14/9 is an add of 9 conference games, and 4-5 non-conference games per year.

 

[jdoggivjc]

The only question in terms of motivation is if ASU is just fibbing to itself they don't want B12 to soften the blow if/when they're left behind. The motivation for AZ is 100% there.

In the end any BOR issues will not stop AZ from joining the Big 12. It didn't stop OU from leaving OSU, and it wouldn't have stopped KU from leaving K-State. The only time I have ever seen a BOR effectively affect realignment was during the ACC-Big East merger, when the VA BOR would have completely derailed the process unless VT was one of the teams included in the merger (and at the time IIRC VT might have been on the outside looking in). As a result, VT became a member of the ACC.

Like I said, at the end of the day the AZ BOR won't stop AZ from moving to the Big 12, but it could be some of that red tape you were mentioning.

 

[HFCS]

In the end any BOR issues will not stop AZ from joining the Big 12. It didn't stop OU from leaving OSU, and it wouldn't have stopped KU from leaving K-State. The only time I have ever seen a BOR effectively affect realignment was during the ACC-Big East merger, when the VA BOR would have completely derailed the process unless VT was one of the teams included in the merger (and at the time IIRC VT might have been on the outside looking in). As a result, VT became a member of the ACC.

Like I said, at the end of the day the AZ BOR won't stop AZ from moving to the Big 12, but it could be some of that red tape you were mentioning.

CA BOR turned out to be nothing too.

 

[jdoggivjc]

The AZ President already publicly stated there is no issue with UA and ASU doing different things.

While I agree it's not an issue, it doesn't mean it's not a factor at all.

 

[keepngoal]

This is the problem with Oregon...if they really want to be in the Big Ten but "settle" and come to the Big 12. This becomes a source of instability, and a potential bad look for the Big 12 a few years down the road if Oregon bolts for the Big Ten, as the Big 12 would lose another big name.

This is a problem for every school not in the BIG or SEC. Name a school not in the BIG or SEC that wouldn’t take an invite from the BIG or SEC.

It isn’t about instability, its just the game… you take the invite to the ‘big leagues’ if one comes. We all know it… so its cool.

 

[Gonzo]

In the end any BOR issues will not stop AZ from joining the Big 12. It didn't stop OU from leaving OSU, and it wouldn't have stopped KU from leaving K-State. The only time I have ever seen a BOR effectively affect realignment was during the ACC-Big East merger, when the VA BOR would have completely derailed the process unless VT was one of the teams included in the merger (and at the time IIRC VT might have been on the outside looking in). As a result, VT became a member of the ACC.

Like I said, at the end of the day the AZ BOR won't stop AZ from moving to the Big 12, but it could be some of that red tape you were mentioning.

It would be pretty dumb of them to do that. Would you rather have 2 state universities on a sinking ship, or 1? And 0 isn't an option. Pretty easy question IMO.

 

[theshadow]

B1G added Rutgers for a reason

Solely because they could force a **** load of people into paying for their conference network.

If the Big 12 had a network (like Weiberg tried to do 16+ years ago), then yes, adding schools only because they're in large TV markets would be a good idea.

 

[Clonedogg]

Yeah, I probably should have bumped WVU above Colorado in my "most Big 12 of all time" rankings. Colorado should get more of a ding for leaving.

Revised:
T1: ISU, KU, KSU, OKSt
T2: Baylor, Tech, TCU
T3: WVU
T4: Colorado
T5: Houston
T6: BYU, Cincy, UCF

Mostly agree with your rankings, and looks fun so I will post some opposing arguments.

Why is TCU more Big12 than Colorado or WVU? -Because they were in the SWC and thus have previous ties to BU and TT?
On the flip side
- They joined the same time as WVU
- CU was in the conference for many more years prior, and have established ties to the schools in the T1 line, along with BU and Tech for 15 years.

 

[HFCS]

Mostly agree with your rankings, and looks fun so I will post some opposing arguments.

Why is TCU more Big12 than Colorado or WVU? -Because they were in the SWC and thus have previous ties to BU and TT?
On the flip side
- They joined the same time as WVU
- CU was in the conference for many more years prior, and have established ties to the schools in the T1 line, along with BU and Tech for 15 years.

I rank how much B12 they've had, then how much B8, then how much SWC. Big 8 is more important than SWC because it was an 8/4 ratio on the merger.

In my original ranking I didn't penalize Colorado much for defecting but I decided it was enough to put them below WVU. Houston's never even been in B12 so they can't be above Colorado yet despite SWC history. Maybe if Houston is in B12 for 20 years they can jump CU.

 

[jdoggivjc]

It would be pretty dumb of them to do that. Would you rather have 2 state universities on a sinking ship, or 1? And 0 isn't an option. Pretty easy question IMO.

I think you're missing the point. Even if the BOR wouldn't stop them it's still red tape that might need to be cleared.

 

[Acylum]

On it's own it's not. It's when you factor in everything that it becomes a big blow. The big thing remains the lack of a media deal. And forget one that is even comparable with the Big 12 - one comparable with the ACC probably isn't even in sight, which is why you have all of them wishfully thinking for a merger with the ACC. So not only do you not have a media deal in place, but you also have to contend with GORs from conference for teams you want to backfill your own conference. Your two conferences are probably going to be the MWC and AAC. Everybody already knows what kind of a nightmare it's going to be attempting to pull teams from the MWC based on what happened when SDSU attempted to leave just a few weeks ago. And while you had 3 teams readily jump from the AAC to the Big 12, it's because they knew with certainty that what they were going to get from the Big 12, even at a reduced rate, was going to be worth paying the exit fee. You can't make that claim with the PAC because any school that makes that jump would be doing so into a total unknown.

Now, if it was just CU, they might have been able to work with SDSU. But Arizona jumping is a second hole - what other school is willing to risk falling into the abyss when all is said and done the media deal that the PAC finally works out isn't significantly better than what the MWC or AAC have... and whatever school you landed had to pay exorbitant exit fees to make that jump?

IMO that's why Arizona leaving the PAC is an unmitigable disaster for them.

But don’t you think if four teams leave the PAC just absorbs the MWC and the exit fees go away? Although that 4 teams leaving scenario would highly likely include Oregon anyway.

 

[HFCS]

But don’t you think if four teams leave the PAC just absorbs the MWC and the exit fees go away? Although that 4 teams leaving scenario would highly likely include Oregon anyway.

I would hate for my job to be arguing the new Pac/MWC # should be much closer to Pac's old deal than MWC's old deal when over half the teams are MWC.

 

[Gonzo]

I think you're missing the point. Even if the BOR wouldn't stop them it's still red tape that might need to be cleared.

I get that. I'd just think the BoR would recognize that there's a lot of money at stake for one of its state universities and maybe expedite things a bit.