Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[simply1]

Those schools like Texas and OU went to the SEC not just for the money but to be surrounded by what they believe their peers in the sport are. It’s the same reason we dump on Pac teams not wanting to come to the Big12 because they view it as lesser. They can make more money for sure but they don’t really want to be associated with the Big12. Michigan could probably make more money elsewhere but they make more then enough, have tons of cash at their disposal and don’t want to be associated with SEC schools.

As plenty people have pointed out AD revenue is a drop in the bucket for most of these schools especially the big ten schools. The presidents are the ones making the decisions at the end of the day and who they associate with matters to them A LOT.

Texas barely looked at the sec when the swc dissolved, it was big 8 and PAC. Even later Texas was looking at the PAC .Oklahoma was already in the big 8 of course.

 

[Gorm]

Texas barely looked at the sec when the swc dissolved, it was big 8 and PAC. Even later Texas was looking at the PAC .Oklahoma was already in the big 8 of course.

Deloss Dodds openly mocked the SEC at various points in his tenure.

 

[Kinch]

People who talk about super leagues for football forget that the elephant in the room is the billion dollar contract the NCAA has for March madness. If a super league happens, then what would stop the ACC, Big East and Big 12 from starting their own basketball super league and having their own 32 team championship and latching on to a majority of the billion that now gets distributed by the NCAA?

 

[Gorm]

A break away super league will end up as popular as the XFL and G League in the long run.

Not the same situation. If half of the NFLs top brands broke off and formed their own league, the ratings and popularity won't just evaporate.

 

[CascadeClone]

I agree with most of this except for one part. Michigan vs Georgia every week or similar games in the event of this super league isn’t going to be the draw. Those games are valuable now because they are the top of their respective conferences becuase they rack up the wins. Michigan in a super league is going to get crushed. After a few years of that all of a sudden Michigan is Nebraska and no one cares. A super league will destroy ratings not increase them. Especially when so many won’t be watching since their alma mater isn’t remotely involved.

I hope you are right but they Media Money Men are going to push it to that anyway. They see the numbers but not the people, emotion, interest, motivation behind them.

 

[Mr Janny]

Not the same situation. If half of the NFLs top brands broke off and formed their own league, the ratings and popularity won't just evaporate.

This. The XFL is trying to build a brand and following where none exists. A super league of the top college teams brings all of that with them. That's a major hurdle, possibly the biggest hurdle, that new leagues face, and it simply wouldn't exist for this new college league. It's hard to even quantify how big of a leg up that would give them.

 

[ghyland7]

I agree that a “college super league” would have better branding than the XFL, but college sports are primarily followed by alums/employees and family members thereof.

ISU fans aren’t magically going to become Michigan or Oklahoma fans if/when ISU gets left behind. The same is true for ANY school that gets left behind. Sure, ISUs fan base might be a rounding error compared to Ohio State or Alabama, but we still put 50-60k butts in seats for frankly mediocre football.

 

[KnappShack]

I agree that a “college super league” would have better branding than the XFL, but college sports are primarily followed by alums/employees and family members thereof.

ISU fans aren’t magically going to become Michigan or Oklahoma fans if/when ISU gets left behind. The same is true for ANY school that gets left behind. Sure, ISUs fan base might be a rounding error compared to Ohio State or Alabama, but we still put 50-60k butts in seats for frankly mediocre football.

Michigan vs Ohio State had 17 million viewers.

XFL games are barely cracking 500,000.

I didn't know Michigan and OSU had that many alums and family members

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Except these people dont look that far ahead. The look at if they can put the top teams in a league for 5 or 10 years it will be worth $$$$. They will worry about how some of them are no longer top teams after a decade and decide what to do. And most of these calibur teams even losing for several years will still be worth more than say the bottom 3/4 of the current B1G.

You have to think as more and more comes to paying players etc these places will decide they have to do whatever to make more $$.

And most of the overall historical top value programs have went through times they were down, they still are a top value program. So taking a few years where they are not in the top is not going to kill their value.

Tell OSU they cant beat the Alabamas and Georgias every week, that they cant compete in such a conference. Tell the Michigans that they will be the bottom in said conference. See how they react, I bet it is not to cower and say you are right. Such a challenge might just push them towards doing it. These are all Big ego teams.

And besides like someone said the NFL has teams up and down, has the best and most even talent etc. And we see the top teams rotate every few years, and then fall back. And yet it is worth $Billions.

I’m a Michigan alum as well as a sparty alum, Michigan fans know they will be at the bottom and can’t compete with those schools. It’s why fans ***** to the admin about recruiting all the time yet Michigan refuses to change because it goes against their academic mission. It’s why Illinois got Shannon from TT instead of UM. Can’t speak much to OSU but with Day at them helm the couple OSU fans I know aren’t particularly confident.

 

[Mr Janny]

I agree that a “college super league” would have better branding than the XFL, but college sports are primarily followed by alums/employees and family members thereof.

ISU fans aren’t magically going to become Michigan or Oklahoma fans if/when ISU gets left behind. The same is true for ANY school that gets left behind. Sure, ISUs fan base might be a rounding error compared to Ohio State or Alabama, but we still put 50-60k butts in seats for frankly mediocre football.

But I don't think it really matters if Iowa State fans become Michigan fans. Frankly, they don't need us to be successful. The diehard fans of the left behind schools are not necessary for a separate super conference to be popular and financially profitable.

It's probably more likely that the remaining schools would feel the immediate pinch.

 

[exCyDing]

A break away super league will end up as popular as the XFL and G League in the long run. Most fans are going to watch where most of their schools are playing.

That's kind of it. At some point, it becomes an NFL minor league. Those have not, historically, faired all that well.

 

[2speedy1]

I’m a Michigan alum as well as a sparty alum, Michigan fans know they will be at the bottom and can’t compete with those schools. It’s why fans ***** to the admin about recruiting all the time yet Michigan refuses to change because it goes against their academic mission. It’s why Illinois got Shannon from TT instead of UM. Can’t speak much to OSU but with Day at them helm the couple OSU fans I know aren’t particularly confident.

You seem to believe Michigan is some saint that would never use their position to gain.

So fine.

Do you think every other school is like this? OSU, PSU, USC, UCLA, Alabama, UGA, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, FSU etc. If all those are making the move...Michigan would have exactly 2 choices. 1)Be the saint you claim they are and stay put in a conference that may have significantly less value. OR 2) Get on board with the rest to not be left out.

So as much as you believe Michigan will stop anything like this from happening, this is false, either they get with the rest or they dont. I dont think the top teams will suddenly get a conscience just because Michigan.

 

[FerShizzle]

Michigan vs Ohio State had 17 million viewers.

XFL games are barely cracking 500,000.

I didn't know Michigan and OSU had that many alums and family members

And that’s with literally zero football competion for viewers. On typical fall saturdays there are dozens of games being televised at once and they all draw 500k+.

Not too mention OSU v Mich was early in the day on Black Friday when people could easily have other obligations to keep them from watching.

 

[tim_redd]

People who talk about super leagues for football forget that the elephant in the room is the billion dollar contract the NCAA has for March madness. If a super league happens, then what would stop the ACC, Big East and Big 12 from starting their own basketball super league and having their own 32 team championship and latching on to a majority of the billion that now gets distributed by the NCAA?

What would ever stop the NCAA from saying "we're going to hold a 16 team football playoff to declare a national champion and sell the tv rights"? In my mind I always see this as a last grasp attempt at a power play by the NCAA, similar to the NIT v NCAA power struggle that happened in basketball. No idea how realistic or feasible it actually is tho.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You seem to believe Michigan is some saint that would never use their position to gain.

So fine.

Do you think every other school is like this? OSU, PSU, USC, UCLA, Alabama, UGA, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, FSU etc. If all those are making the move...Michigan would have exactly 2 choices. 1)Be the saint you claim they are and stay put in a conference that may have significantly less value. OR 2) Get on board with the rest to not be left out.

So as much as you believe Michigan will stop anything like this from happening, this is false, either they get with the rest or they dont. I dont think the top teams will suddenly get a conscience just because Michigan.

Why are those teams making a move? Outside of the two ACC teams all the rest are already in the P2. If the big ten teams don’t move you essentially just have the SEC. When European soccer teams tried to form a super league the fans revolted and immediately it was shut down. That’s professional teams with billionaire owners. You really think you’re going to be able to get that many public university presidents to all get up and agree to something like this? No way. University presidents like stability and certainty. What’s certain is a 9 figure payout in the big ten. What’s not certain is trying to spin off into an NFL lite. Also while media markets don’t care about the non revenue sports university presidents do. You pull these teams out of their conference where are the other sports going to go? You make this out to be some simple thing without understanding the complexities the university presidents (the ones actually making the decisions) will be dealing with.

 

[2speedy1]

Why are those teams making a move? Outside of the two ACC teams all the rest are already in the P2. If the big ten teams don’t move you essentially just have the SEC. When European soccer teams tried to form a super league the fans revolted and immediately it was shut down. That’s professional teams with billionaire owners. You really think you’re going to be able to get that many public university presidents to all get up and agree to something like this? No way. University presidents like stability and certainty. What’s certain is a 9 figure payout in the big ten. What’s not certain is trying to spin off into an NFL lite. Also while media markets don’t care about the non revenue sports university presidents do. You pull these teams out of their conference where are the other sports going to go? You make this out to be some simple thing without understanding the complexities the university presidents (the ones actually making the decisions) will be dealing with.

They only need one reason, and its a big one. M O N E Y ! ! !

You really dont think that someone could start a discussion with several schools over back channels and under the table....how do you think USCLA happened? OuT happened?

Are you sure their wont be a completely new media player in a decade that precisely wants to create this super league?

Why cant all sports go to the super conference? Too far? cuz we have shown that distance means nothing. Everyone flies everywhere anyway.

When those other sports cost/lose about $1M per year on average in a conference. They will still lose that $1m per year wherever they go. But if there is a deal on the table for them to increase their media revenue by $50M or $100M or who knows how much, what does where those other sports are matter.

You dont think a 16 or 20 team super conference with OSU, PSU, Clemson, FSU, Bama, UGA etc can play all the other sports as well?

As far as someone said.."what about the NCAA tourney." These teams want to get out from the NCAA anyway. Why cant they start their own tourney? Or even still, why cant their New conference be part of the NCAA basketball tourney, just like any other conference. Their are conferences that dont play football, that take part in the NCAA tourney, so A)where they play football shouldnt matter, B)there is no reason a new conference could not also be included in the NCAA tourney.

 

[Cyclone Pfan]

One thing about the PAC, a lot of the games get crap viewership, but when the low interest teams play rivals they get a spike. Rivalries sell. That’s why you take both Az schools. BYU-Utah will be a hate fest unlike anything in the league. Let’s be the conference with great rivalries and passionate fanbases, and let the chips fall where they may.

I'm on board with rivalries. If CyHawk has taught me one thing it's that Hawk fans are insufferable. If it's taught me a second thing it's that the B12 can bring in game day for a rivalry game that we only own 1/2 of.

My point is that if I could be a beggar, I'd prefer to pick up passionate fan bases in additional states or leave room for ACC options versus UA, UU, or CU.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

They only need one reason, and its a big one. M O N E Y ! ! !

You really dont think that someone could start a discussion with several schools over back channels and under the table....how do you think USCLA happened? OuT happened?

Are you sure their wont be a completely new media player in a decade that precisely wants to create this super league?

Why cant all sports go to the super conference? Too far? cuz we have shown that distance means nothing. Everyone flies everywhere anyway.

When those other sports cost/lose about $1M per year on average in a conference. They will still lose that $1m per year wherever they go. But if there is a deal on the table for them to increase their media revenue by $50M or $100M or who knows how much, what does where those other sports are matter.

You dont think a 16 or 20 team super conference with OSU, PSU, Clemson, FSU, Bama, UGA etc can play all the other sports as well?

As far as someone said.."what about the NCAA tourney." These teams want to get out from the NCAA anyway. Why cant they start their own tourney? Or even still, why cant their New conference be part of the NCAA basketball tourney, just like any other conference. Their are conferences that dont play football, that take part in the NCAA tourney, so A)where they play football shouldnt matter, B)there is no reason a new conference could not also be included in the NCAA tourney.

If you think someone can start a back channel discussion with 20 schools without it getting out, good luck.

Why can’t all sports play in a super conference? Well all schools don’t have the same sports. Not a lot of hockey in the SEC. Super ****** baseball in the northern schools.

How am I not sure about a new media parter? I’m not no one is. What if all the big ten billionaires donate all their money to keep schools in the big ten? You don’t know it won’t happen but you’re just throwing out hypotheticals to try and justify an insane change a decade from now. Hell alot of the SEC could be under water from climate change, tough to play football when your getting crushed by hurricanes all season.

 

[Gorm]

If you think someone can start a back channel discussion with 20 schools without it getting out, good luck.

Stuff leaking doesn't stop anything. In fact, it usually accelerates things.

 

[exCyDing]

Why are those teams making a move? Outside of the two ACC teams all the rest are already in the P2. If the big ten teams don’t move you essentially just have the SEC. When European soccer teams tried to form a super league the fans revolted and immediately it was shut down. That’s professional teams with billionaire owners. You really think you’re going to be able to get that many public university presidents to all get up and agree to something like this? No way. University presidents like stability and certainty. What’s certain is a 9 figure payout in the big ten. What’s not certain is trying to spin off into an NFL lite. Also while media markets don’t care about the non revenue sports university presidents do. You pull these teams out of their conference where are the other sports going to go? You make this out to be some simple thing without understanding the complexities the university presidents (the ones actually making the decisions) will be dealing with.

I think there’s two groups that will ultimately put the brakes on a breakaway super league: 1) University Presidents don’t want anything to do with the over site of minor-league pro sports teams. Even with the eye water-numbers some ADs can generate, it’s still just a small fraction of overall university revenues. This is likely the biggest block to schools outright paying players directly.
2) Boosters, if only because at some point the money gets so ridiculous they’d lose access and influence.

IMO, #1 is a slightly stronger influence on B10 schools, while #2 might be more prevalent in the SEC.