Expansion Candidates

[cyIclSoneU]

I hear what you're saying, but wouldn't all these schools (who've previously wanted to join the Big12) have been beating down our door when they heard OU and UT were leaving? They would have known that it would be the perfect time for the conference to make some additions, but we did not hear anything. I think that simple fact speaks volumes.

How do you know this? There have been zero official reports of Iowa State reaching out to the B1G but we can be sure that has happened. I would be surprised if Cincy, UCF etc. haven’t put out Big 12 feelers as well, because as the other poster said, the Big 12 is still a clearly superior option to the AAC. Especially so when there’s a real chance of the top AAC schools leaving for the B12, so if you as an AAC school decide not to go, you get left behind in a very weakened league.

 

[BryceC]

BYU fanbase > Memphis > Cincinnati > UCF > Houston > etc.

Agreed. That's not the problem.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

They shot themselves in the foot when they left the MWC. It was the wrong reaction to Utah's Pac promotion.

The MWC was really building and about to add Boise State, then as soon as Boise State joins, TCU and Utah get promoted to P5 and BYU goes independent.

There were a few years there where the MWC had a legit national championship gripe from Utah's perfect season and the top of the league was significantly tougher than very down Big East and ACC.

BTW, that was the MWC that JP was referring to 10 years ago when he made the statement about B12 without OUUT, not it’s current state. So tired of that being used now out of context.

 

[isufanz1]

I would think a bit bigger and go with 8 addditions. BYU/Cinn/UCF/USF/Houston to bring in schools with large alumni bases (and thus eyeballs) plus located in larger markets. I would also then add the 3 academies to bring in those games/viewership as well (plus some ND games via the academies). BYU/Cin/UCF have had successful football programs, and academies have generally been above average. Could go a pod system such as:

East - Army/Cinn/WV/Navy
South - UCF/USF/Houston/TCU
Mid - OSU/ISU/Kan/KSU
West - BYU/AF/Tech/Baylor

Would have some fun games, some national audience games, and some recent quality football (OSU, ISU, Cinn, UCF, BYU, TCU). This could maybe be sold to streaming given large fanbases and national interest.
Also maintains some acedemic rigor with BYU and academies added.

This of course assuming no PAC/BIG merger/invite.

 

[CYCLNST8]

I know football drives all of this craziness, but we could still be an elite basketball conference. Especially with additions like Memphis, Cincinatti, or UNLV. Even BYU has an elite facility seating over 19,000.

UCF & Houston's basketball facilities only seat 8-10,000. Something to chew on...

(Cameron is historic; Duke could easily build a bigger arena and fill it if they wanted to).

 

[HFCS]

Directional schools and commuter schools which is why the B12 should add no more than one AAC school if they have to. If WV stays, then you add Cincy & BYU. If they leave, then you add Houston and you take a state flagship school in Colorado State in addition to BYU. Memphis' academics make them a non-starter and if anyone has attended a Liberty Bowl, their stadium and the surroundings are certainly not B12 quality. And there is absolutely no point expanding beyond 10.

I don't see ACC invite for WVU as any more likely than Big Ten invite for ISU. They had about an entire decade of realignment opportunities to invite WVU from a shrinking Big East and did not.

It could happen but I think it's more likely not to happen.

Like ISU to Big Ten...maybe they are #16 for the numbers and geography fit if Notre Dame joins for real.

 

[CyLyte2]

BYU and the service academies.

 

[Statefan10]

If you’re adding anyone, you’re 100% adding BYU and Cincy.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

If you’re adding anyone, you’re 100% adding BYU and Cincy.

I agree with this although I also think UCF is in the sure thing category. It’s that fourth spot with Houston, Memphis, USF (with UCF), maybe even Colorado State (with BYU) that is intriguing IMO.

 

[Statefan10]

I agree with this although I also think UCF is in the sure thing category. It’s that fourth spot with Houston, Memphis, USF (with UCF), maybe even Colorado State (with BYU) that is intriguing IMO.

I think UCF is 100% if we expand to more than 10.

 

[Ace000087]

Ughh... This won't happen, but my take:

BU
BYU
CSU
TCU
TT
UH

KSU
KU
ISU
OSU
WVU
UC

 

[cymonw1980]

I read everyone's comments in this thread and I really don't want to be negative/debbie downer BUT...

You're all acting like all these schools are dying to get into the Big12 based on past expansion interest. Let's be real. They wanted to join the Big12 that had UT and OU as well as a great revenue model. The fact that they know OU and UT are leaving and we did not hear ANY rumors about any of these schools reaching out to the Big12 to join should tell you all you need to know.

Many of them might look at their current conferences and not think it is any worse than what is left of the Big12 without UT and OU. Add in the uncertainty of what our next TV contract may look like and they might just see this as jumping from a sinking ship onto another sinking ship. They may try to just wait it out for a potential invite to the inevitable P4 expansion.

Just my two cents.

There is a pretty significant difference after you get past the top 3-4 teams. Even the top 3-4 are only similar in value to the average remaining 8. There is some good analysis out there that runs through the media and attendance data to show this. In addition, even if the "50%" estimated value driven by tx/ou (given by bowlsby) is accurate, the media deal would still be significantly more than 2x the current aac money and likely to grow given the value in media rights has gone up significantly since the current deal was signed.

So, there would be significant value for the teams in the AAC... However, the key is that any team in the aac/b8 would still leave for any "P4" offer.. so, definitely not the same as an invite to a power conf.

 

[cymonw1980]

I don't see ACC invite for WVU as any more likely than Big Ten invite for ISU. They had about an entire decade of realignment opportunities to invite WVU from a shrinking Big East and did not.

It could happen but I think it's more likely not to happen.

Like ISU to Big Ten...maybe they are #16 for the numbers and geography fit if Notre Dame joins for real.

I believe the reason the ACC did not invite wvu was because they wanted ND and Tex. That was their "ideal" 16... was never going to happen and definitely not happening now. There is no way ND would jump in the sinking ship that is the ACC and tex is now off the table.

So.... given their ideal candidates are gone, I do think that wvu has a chance. The other thing to note is that the ACC is about to get lapped in terms of media rights and will not only be behind the b10, sec but also the PAC12 once their new deal is done. The ACC deal is TERRIBLE and will leave them WAY behind in terms of media money.

The best shot they have at re-opening the current deal and getting anything close to market value (way under market value right now) would be to add a team...

The ACC has limited options... But since they need to reopen their contract, they need to add a team... so, wvu or uconn will likely be the most likely candidates. WVU is more attractive in fb and offers rivalries with pitt/vt/uva and miami (old big east rivals).

Not saying its a done deal, but I think it could happen this time...

 

[Statefan10]

Ughh... This won't happen, but my take:

BU
BYU
CSU
TCU
TT
UH

KSU
KU
ISU
OSU
WVU
UC

I sure hope that doesn’t happen lol

 

[cyIclSoneU]

BYU is superior for $$$ reasons but this is a pretty solid looking conference of 12 schools that keeps a rivalry focus in division alignment:



Red line divides the West and East divisions.

Protected rivalries can include Tech-Houston, TCU-Baylor, ISU-WVU, then let's do OSU-Memphis for proximity, and the Kansas schools can fight among themselves for who gets Cincy and who gets UCF.

 

[I@ST1]

UNLV FB will be a nonstarter in town because Raiders. Their BB program hasn't been good for a long time. Tark the Shark and Lon Kruger were their last good ones. I wonder if Lon's kid will have success there?

So TJ wasn’t a good one? There goes our BB program. Just shut it all down.

 

[NWICY]

So TJ wasn’t a good one? There goes our BB program. Just shut it all down.

He wasn't there long enough to know. Culturally I doubt he was a good fit for UNLV.

 

[trevn]

BYU is superior for $$$ reasons but this is a pretty solid looking conference of 12 schools that keeps a rivalry focus in division alignment:

View attachment 88302

Red line divides the West and East divisions.

Protected rivalries can include Tech-Houston, TCU-Baylor, ISU-WVU, then let's do OSU-Memphis for proximity, and the Kansas schools can fight among themselves for who gets Cincy and who gets UCF.

I mean I think I'm with the majority here hoping this scenario doesn't happen. But if it would come to this,
I'd do a North/South with KSU, KU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, and Memphis. South is OSU, Texas schools and UCF.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I mean I think I'm with the majority here hoping this scenario doesn't happen. But if it would come to this,
I'd do a North/South with KSU, KU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, and Memphis. South is OSU, Texas schools and UCF.

I know fan preferences are different from team/coach ones but carving up Texas across divisions for recruiting purposes feels likely to me if something like this is gonna happen. Same reason the Pac-12 chopped up California across the North and South.

 

[AppleCornCy]

BYU is superior for $$$ reasons but this is a pretty solid looking conference of 12 schools that keeps a rivalry focus in division alignment:

View attachment 88302

Red line divides the West and East divisions.

Protected rivalries can include Tech-Houston, TCU-Baylor, ISU-WVU, then let's do OSU-Memphis for proximity, and the Kansas schools can fight among themselves for who gets Cincy and who gets UCF.

Assuming it’s those schools with BYU instead of Memphis, I think you maybe go:

East: ISU, Kansas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UCF

West: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, BYU

My initial impression was that the divisions would be imbalanced doing it this way but I think they’re fine really.

Work the scheduling so that everybody in the East gets at least one game in Texas every year.