Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[TykeClone]

The one other option is I'm pretty sure ISU would win a 3-team tie-breaker with WVU and OU. So for that you need ISU to win out and then UT beat WVU and WVU beat OU. But UT losing one in the next 3 weeks provides the clearest path.

Texas winning out except for ISU and WVU, OU winning out including beating WVU, and ISU winning out is the clearest path.

 

[Cardinal and Gold]

The one other option is I'm pretty sure ISU would win a 3-team tie-breaker with WVU and OU. So for that you need ISU to win out and then UT beat WVU and WVU beat OU. But UT losing one in the next 3 weeks provides the clearest path.

The WVU vs OU game is in Morgantown, so that could help a bit for an OU loss, but I’d rather OU win out and Texas lose twice. Texas vs WVU is in Austin. I think the best chance for a Longhorn’s loss is in Lubbock.

 

[StLouisClone]

Root for what you want but if UT wins their next 3, they're in the CCG.

Yep, best outcome would be for Texas to lose on the road to OSU in a squeaker. Game is on ABC. If it is a good game, Texas might only drop a few spots in rankings. Assuming we beat Tech, we would effectively control our own destiny because WV will lose another game.

 

[clones11]

where are you finding these projections?

 

[mj4cy]

I'm not going to worry too much about anything unless we can actually beat UT in Austin. Otherwise, it's fun to think through but not realistic.

 

[Dale]

where are you finding these projections?

In brief: I wrote a Python program that does 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the reason using Ken Massey's rankings.

 

[weR138]

ISU record chances, excluding championship game:

4-8: 0.0%
5-7: 1.1%
6-6: 9.1%
7-5: 31.5%
7-4 or 8-4: 42.4%
8-3 or 9-3: 15.9%

I'm confused...

There is zero likelihood that we lose to IW? And furthermore a 1.1% chance we don't also beat (most likely) Kansas?

So you're telling me IW has no chance?
Disregard lloydchristmasyouretellingmetheresachance.gif?

 

[VeloClone]

I'm confused...

There is zero likelihood that we lose to IW? And furthermore a 1.1% chance we don't also beat (most likely) Kansas?

So you're telling me IW has no chance?
Disregard lloydchristmasyouretellingmetheresachance.gif?

I read it as a miniscule chance that we lose to IW, but when coupled with the chances that ISU loses every other game the combined chance rounds to zero.

 

[clones11]

In brief: I wrote a Python program that does 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the reason using Ken Massey's rankings.

WOW, good on you! Thanks!

 

[GottaTri]

Oh my, I can hardly wait for this to be updated after today's games. Good win against TTU.

 

[jdoggivjc]

I did this last year, and we're finally far enough into the season that I think it makes sense running the scenarios again.

Basically, this is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Texas: 77.5% (56.6% 1st, 20.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 59.2% (21.4% 1st, 37.9% 2nd)
West Virginia: 32.6% (14.1% 1st, 18.5% 2nd)
TCU: 15.7% (3.7% 1st, 12.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 6.2% (1.6% 1st, 4.6% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.3% (1.7% 1st, 3.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 3.1% (0.9% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas and KSU: zippo

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma/Texas: 42.0%
Texas/West Virginia: 19.2%
TCU/Texas: 10.6%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 9.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.1%
Oklahoma/TCU: 2.7%
Texas/Texas Tech: 2.4%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.6%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 1.6%
TCU/West Virginia: 1.6%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2%

(Slight boring caveat: The program only goes through the first two tiebreakers, since the third tiebreaker involves points and would be a pain in the butt to model. That said, the first two tiebreakers -- and situations with no tiebreaker necessary -- covered 98.8% of the simulations, so the odds wouldn’t change much.)

As you might imagine, Iowa State's Championship Game odds go down the toilet if they lose to West Virginia. The odds if Iowa State wins (ignoring the other games that week):

Iowa St.: 12.0% (3.2% 1st, 8.8% 2nd)

And if the Cyclones lose:

Iowa St.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)

And finally, here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record (assuming that game 12 is a gimme):

3-9: 0.0%
4-8: 1.0%
5-7: 7.0%
6-6: 23.6%
7-5: 36.9%
8-4: 25.5%
9-3: 6.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.

Having better odds of finishing 8-4 than 6-6 and 9-3 than losing out... is so not what I'm used to seeing from ISU.

 

[deadeyededric]

If we win out we have a 58% chance of winning the conference championship. Of course there's only an 8% chance of that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

 

[Clonehomer]

I predict we finish the regular season at 8-3 and Jamie has to make a phonecall to Incarnate Word to tell them to cancel their hotel rooms.

 

[Omaha Cy]

In brief: I wrote a Python program that does 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the reason using Ken Massey's rankings.

I'm more of a Cutlass Supreme kind of guy than a Monte Carlo guy, but its still is awesome.

 

[Omaha Cy]

If we win out we have a 58% chance of winning the conference championship. Of course there's only an 8% chance of that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

I'd like to think with dominoes falling elsewhere, ISU winning out equals a victory in Texas on the 1st weekend in December. ..

 

[madguy30]

Having better odds of finishing 8-4 than 6-6 and 9-3 than losing out... is so not what I'm used to seeing from ISU.

7 wins before the season woud have had me giddy. Still will if it happens.

 

[CentexCyclone]

In brief: I wrote a Python program that does 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the reason using Ken Massey's rankings.

#NerdCrush

 

[LivntheCyLife]

If we win out we have a 58% chance of winning the conference championship. Of course there's only an 8% chance of that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

I wonder what they have for Iowa State's chances of winning out the regular season. I'd think it'd have to be around 15%.

 

[deadeyededric]

I wonder what they have for Iowa State's chances of winning out the regular season. I'd think it'd have to be around 15%.

They just updated it. It's 9%. It's pretty cool our Elo rating is 17. Reminds me of FIFA.lol

 

[LivntheCyLife]

They just updated it. It's 9%

No, I think that 9% includes winning the conference championship game. There's no way ISU has a 9% chance of winning out the regular season and a 7% chance of winning the conference. That'd be like a 77% chance of winning the conference championship game. I doubt ISU is even favored.