Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[deadeyededric]

No, I think that 9% includes winning the conference championship game. There's no way ISU has a 9% chance of winning out the regular season and a 7% chance of winning the conference. That'd be like a 77% chance of winning the conference championship game. I doubt ISU is even favored.

It doesn't include the conference championship or if when you selected the win out option, it would automatically check conference champion. It only does it for teams who winning out, would automatically put them in the championship game. If that makes sense. I kind of confused myself explaining it.

 

[Dale]

Okay, I too much time trying to understand exactly what 538's numbers are trying to say, and I finally figured it out (helped by the fact that their numbers are similar to Massey's, which my Monte Carlo simulation uses):

* "Wins conference": The chance Iowa State will make it to the Big 12 title game and then win the title game. My simulation has that as 24% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) = 8%, about the same as 538 (7%).

* "Wins out": The chance that Iowa State will win all its regular season games and, if it goes to the Big 12 title game, the title game. My simulation has that as 25% (wins out) * [19% (doesn't get to title game) + 81% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) ] = 10%, about the same as 538 (9%) -- if all that makes sense. It's kind of a weird statistic in Iowa State's specific case.

All that helped me make sense of my main confusion, which was the 57% 538 has for Iowa State in "wins conference" when you check "wins out." To sum it up: There are two scenarios if Iowa State "wins out:" One in which they win out in the regular season but don't make the Big 12 title game (19% of winning out possibilities in my simulation), and one in which they win out through a title game victory (28% -- the 81% * 35% part from above). Divide wins over total possibilities: 28%/(19%+28%) = 60% in my simulation, about the same as 538. Again, a weird statistic in Iowa State's case, since it's taking two very different "wins out" scenarios.

So, uh, way more information than anyone reading this needs.

 

[KCClone1]

If we win out we have a 58% chance of winning the conference championship. Of course there's only an 8% chance of that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Me reading this...

 

[CyArob]

Okay, I too much time trying to understand exactly what 538's numbers are trying to say, and I finally figured it out (helped by the fact that their numbers are similar to Massey's, which my Monte Carlo simulation uses):

* "Wins conference": The chance Iowa State will make it to the Big 12 title game and then win the title game. My simulation has that as 24% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) = 8%, about the same as 538 (7%).

* "Wins out": The chance that Iowa State will win all its regular season games and, if it goes to the Big 12 title game, the title game. My simulation has that as 25% (wins out) * [19% (doesn't get to title game) + 81% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) ] = 10%, about the same as 538 (9%) -- if all that makes sense. It's kind of a weird statistic in Iowa State's specific case.

All that helped me make sense of my main confusion, which was the 57% 538 has for Iowa State in "wins conference" when you check "wins out." To sum it up: There are two scenarios if Iowa State "wins out:" One in which they win out in the regular season but don't make the Big 12 title game (19% of winning out possibilities in my simulation), and one in which they win out through a title game victory (28% -- the 81% * 35% part from above). Divide wins over total possibilities: 28%/(19%+28%) = 60% in my simulation, about the same as 538. Again, a weird statistic in Iowa State's case, since it's taking two very different "wins out" scenarios. And way more information than anyone reading this needs.

I was told there wouldn't be any math

 

[LivntheCyLife]

Okay, I too much time trying to understand exactly what 538's numbers are trying to say, and I finally figured it out (helped by the fact that their numbers are similar to Massey's, which my Monte Carlo simulation uses):

* "Wins conference": The chance Iowa State will make it to the Big 12 title game and then win the title game. My simulation has that as 24% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) = 8%, about the same as 538 (7%).

* "Wins out": The chance that Iowa State will win all its regular season games and, if it goes to the Big 12 title game, the title game. My simulation has that as 25% (wins out) * [19% (doesn't get to title game) + 81% (gets to title game) * 35% (wins title game) ] = 10%, about the same as 538 (9%) -- if all that makes sense. It's kind of a weird statistic in Iowa State's specific case.

All that helped me make sense of my main confusion, which was the 57% 538 has for Iowa State in "wins conference" when you check "wins out." To sum it up: There are two scenarios if Iowa State "wins out:" One in which they win out in the regular season but don't make the Big 12 title game (19% of winning out possibilities in my simulation), and one in which they win out through a title game victory (28% -- the 81% * 35% part from above). Divide wins over total possibilities: 28%/(19%+28%) = 60% in my simulation, about the same as 538. Again, a weird statistic in Iowa State's case, since it's taking two very different "wins out" scenarios.

So, uh, way more information than anyone reading this needs.

Nice, thanks for doing the work to figure it out. So actually 25% chance to win out regular season. That's even better than I thought.

 

[LincolnWay187]

I need updated percent chances afyer this UT loss. Nerds quick to the nerdery!

 

[herbicide]

I need updated percent chances afyer this UT loss. Nerds quick to the nerdery!

I’m no mathematician but I’m pretty sure our odds are looking a lot better after today.

Ps; I did stay at a holiday inn express earlier this week.

 

[CoKane]

I'm guessing that our chances are quite a bit higher after today

 

[Dale]

Massey won't update his numbers until tomorrow, but I ran the simulation on his game projections from last week, but adding in Thursday's/today's results. If anything, this probably slightly understates ISU's odds:

Oklahoma: 79.5% (48.1% 1st, 31.3% 2nd)
Texas: 59.5% (33.2% 1st, 26.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.3% (7.1% 1st, 24.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 24.2% (9.0% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.2% (2.5% 1st, 2.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
everyone else: zippo

Most likely championship games:
Oklahoma/Texas: 44.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 22.4%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 11.7%
Texas/West Virginia: 8.6%
Iowa St./Texas: 5.1%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 2.8%
Texas/Texas Tech: 1.8%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.1%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 1.0%

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.1%
6-6: 2.7%
6-5 or 7-5: 20.7%
7-4 or 8-4: 51.9%
8-3 or 9-3: 24.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-5: 0.1%
7-4: 14.9%
8-3: 95.9%

 

[Dale]

Surprising:

ISU chances of championship game at 7-4, losing to Texas: 5.4%
ISU chances of championship game at 7-4, losing to someone else: 47.4%

 

[2speedy1]

Massey won't update his numbers until tomorrow, but I ran the simulation on his game projections from last week, but adding in Thursday's/today's results. If anything, this probably slightly understates ISU's odds:

Oklahoma: 79.5% (48.1% 1st, 31.3% 2nd)
Texas: 59.5% (33.2% 1st, 26.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.3% (7.1% 1st, 24.2% 2nd)
West Virginia: 24.2% (9.0% 1st, 15.2% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.2% (2.5% 1st, 2.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
everyone else: zippo

Most likely championship games:
Oklahoma/Texas: 44.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 22.4%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 11.7%
Texas/West Virginia: 8.6%
Iowa St./Texas: 5.1%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 2.8%
Texas/Texas Tech: 1.8%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 1.3%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.1%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 1.0%

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.1%
6-6: 2.7%
6-5 or 7-5: 20.7%
7-4 or 8-4: 51.9%
8-3 or 9-3: 24.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-5: 0.1%
7-4: 14.9%
8-3: 95.9%

What I get from this, we win out we are almost a lock for the championship. If we lose one more game we are all but out.

 

[herbicide]

What I get from this, we win out we are almost a lock for the championship. If we lose one more game we are all but out.

If we win out, we are in.

 

[alarson]

If we win out, we are in.

I think we'd still need WVU to pick up another loss so we'd tie with them and win the tiebreaker.

But there's a pretty high chance of WVU picking up a loss or two in their final 4 weeks. OU and OSU being most likely, but OSU in Stillwater could also be trouble.

 

[cyclonedave25]

If we win out, we are in.

We also need WVU to lose once more too. If they also win out, that will put OU at 2 losses (assuming they only lose the one to WVU) and they get the tie breaker ahead of us. So, like somebody said in another thread, we also want OU to win out.

 

[alarson]

We also need WVU to lose once more too. If they also win out, that will put OU at 2 losses (assuming they only lose the one to WVU) and they get the tie breaker ahead of us. So, like somebody said in another thread, we also want OU to win out.

I think this would also be the best scenario for bowl positioning.

At this point we don't want anyone beating OU unless its us in the championship game. Otherwise best bowl positioning happens when OU is taking up a college football playoff spot, moving everyone else up one rung on the pecking order. I think most of us would sacrifice whatever bowl gains might happen there though for a big 12 championship.

 

[Isu4meandyou]

I think this would also be the best scenario for bowl positioning.

At this point we don't want anyone beating OU unless its us in the championship game. Otherwise best bowl positioning happens when OU is taking up a college football playoff spot, moving everyone else up one rung on the pecking order. I think most of us would sacrifice whatever bowl gains might happen there though for a big 12 championship.

If, (WHEN), we win the Big 12 Championship, we would not be sacrificing any bowl position. We would be getting the best Bowl we could possibly get.

 

[alarson]

If, (WHEN), we win the Big 12 Championship, we would not be sacrificing any bowl position. We would be getting the best Bowl we could possibly get.

True. We'd be in the sugar bowl at that point as the big 12 champion

 

[CyberJJJ]

Yep, best outcome would be for Texas to lose on the road to OSU in a squeaker. Game is on ABC. If it is a good game, Texas might only drop a few spots in rankings. Assuming we beat Tech, we would effectively control our own destiny because WV will lose another game.

You called that one!

 

[Spanky]

I should if paid more attention in math class.

 

[MeanDean]

I should have paid more attention in math class.
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